Member Info for Globex

Comment of the day has to be about the advent calendars boosting Q4. I'm not even sure if you're joking, but after the plane crash year this company has had, the absurdity of prospect it's those calendars that will come to rescue now had me in stitches, thanks.

Funniest part is even if you are joking, the calendar ramp will earnestly be dusted down and wheeled out by certain posters on here in lead up to December, happens every year 😁

What would have made thing even more interesting would be Moulding exiting the plc at the same time to go and be CEO of Ingenuity instead. I actually wonder why he's not doing this. Surely it's an opportunity for him to run an actual private company like a private company, rather than a plc like one. He's already made it clear he views running a listed company as beneath him, so it begs the question of what are you waiting for Matt.

Then imagine the transformation of having RemainCo with a proper CEO that respects the public markets and has a track record of delivering shareholder value. The clownshow would end overnight.

Yes can't complain really. In this market if you're an active manager and releasing numbers that are largely inline you're doing pretty well.

Expectation has to be that outflows will stabilise into next year once the remaining 'Value desk' funds go, and then who knows maybe we'll start to see net inflows. Market would have to wake up to it then.

Looking at peers, Liontrust yesterday posted a much larger outflow proportionally for the quarter, which they (quite shamefully imo) tried to blame on the government. With Jupiter it helps their funds are relatively diversified, both globally plus strong on the fixed income side to help offset those periods of equity underperformance.

Have to hand it to Moulding, if you think about it he's played a blinder.. for himself.

He sells tons of shares on IPO at 500p. Then is given more a load more soon after as part of 'incentive plan' for hitting valuation targets.

Then go a bit mad, have a car crash capital markets day, start a fight with most of British press, miss targets, share price collapses. Then he can buy more at 39p. Say #nothanks to Apollo at 170p. 18 months later picks up more shares at 49p.

£100m is the equity valuation for Ingenuity (ie excluding liabilities). Enterprise value is the higher valuation as it includes liabilities.

The important part is £100m equity is absolute max - if share price goes down before delist, shareholder's entitlement also goes down from that proportionally: https://www.ft.com/content/1fc504fb-2138-4b1a-9082-e6f871ef74eb

Re Ashley I think you're overlooking Debenhams there to be honest

If GM does signal the start of a broader pivot away from a dependence on tech spend, could be the thing to rouse this from the doldrums.

In the same way that Unilever renewing with WPP gave it a boost, these 'old industry' customers have to be the way forward now.

Tech clients clearly too savvy and too focused on AI now to need these services to the same extent they once did. Don't see that changing anytime soon, and at some point you'd think S4 will have to accept that. Wouldn't hurt credibility if market didn't have to hear the tech spend excuse for sub-par performance again. Might even improve their ability to forecast.

Way to think about it is if you don't buy into the placing, you carry on owning same number of shares but you are diluted according to how many shares they issue. How many shares they issue depends on placing price which depends on... err something... but a fair guess would be 50p given what now looks like insider sell off leading up to this.

Ingenuity then gets taken private with that placing cash. If you do nothing you'll own shares in that private company pro-rata when it delists (you also have option to opt out of that and take more RemainCo shares instead)

RemainCo (Beauty/Nutrition only) stays as the listed company. Good news is that does away with some lease liabilities but importantly "existing debt facilities will stay with RemainCo, namely the €600m term loan B, the £137m term loan A and the undrawn £170m revolving credit facility".

Sometimes I think certain posters on these boards become a bit of a punchbag for others out of a misdirected frustration at how a company or share price is performing. But it's truly not worth getting worked up about what anyone says on here.

Might help to consider that even the most bearish post ever on this obscure corner of the internet will not impact the stock price of a company valued at ~£700m. Applies equally in the other direction, when you get a company that's managed brilliantly and delivering shareholder value, we can be pretty sure that's not due to rampers. All imo.

It's not true, checked court submissions and nothing. Totally made up as expected - as if a FTSE100 company with a balance sheet like this would get a winding up petition.

Yes I'm sure Moulding is a great family man and plus has friends to think about, and same would have true at time of IPO, when this was 700p+ etc. From the point of view of the wider shareholder base, and perhaps thinking about it a bit less sentimentally, it's fair to say the jury's still out on whether that everyday characteristic has added shareholder value to date. Let's see if it helps going forward, as one way or another this does look like a pivotal 12 months for the company

The £22.9m figure they refer to is the revenue that division generated in the first half of the year - so that is revenue that will no longer be coming to the company as equivalent now goes to Frasers. They never published a sale value for this.

Yes it's not distressed at the moment, just that everything very muddy until Ingenuity disposal actually happens. Key uncertainty and thing to watch is how much group debt Ingenuity newco gets apportioned.

Worst case scenario for remaining rump is Ingenuity gets binned on a debt-free basis, like we saw with Luxury and OnDemand. You'd hope that would be too shameless a move for this though, given much of that debt was accumulated by Ingenuity.

Need to read between the lines of updates like this. This time they are trying to blame the government, other times they will have pointed to Ukraine, inflation, interest rates, cost of living, Covid, etc.

There will always be some external factor outside of their control. If the business model is not resilient enough to withstand events, perhaps it's not always the fault of events.

Last financial year the company spent approaching £1m per month and since then there have been no announcements of a cost cutting program. Or any making any savings at all. They have expensive labs in 2 continents and offices across 3 plus a very top heavy structure with a lot of salaries to pay.

All investors really care about is question of where's the cash to fund all this going to come from? Where it starts to look terminal is when you look at revenue / estimate of cash remaining today / outgoings - and then consider the market cap.

Yes they can and probably raise again but with this market cap and how much they'll have to smash the share price down to get IIs interested in the placing, they'll be lucky to even get another 6 months out of that.

The thing with these test numbers is whether they've sold 200 or 2000 in the half year to be reported, they won't generated enough revenue to cover their expenses. Unless they have miraculously sold more like 20,000 tests, they won't have enough cash to continue as a going concern into next year.

Yes lots of stuff happening like potential for covenant breach and risk of bank withdrawing what is already a fully drawn RCF.

Worst thing about Revb is how since date of last results, the share price already dropped 25%+. That's without any specific news in meantime and *before* today's update. So it looks like whatever happens, insiders will be doing pretty well.

Yes clearly they see potential in Africa, hence deal. SaaS is great but doesn't normally involve having to acquire a stake in your customer. Either way the amounts involved are so low even if deal's a dud doesn't really matter in grand scheme, as long as it doesn't overuse the opco resources.

Perspective: deal represents 0.23% of shares in issue, value at yesterday's close £576k. Also pretty different from yesterday's RNS which related to a long signalled deferred payment for an acquisition that happened 3 years ago.

Less good: it's only for a 25% stake and question of should they be bothering a minority stake in a firm on another continent, bit messy and another thing to have to use resources on while company still in turnaround mode.

Any individual can report market abuse to FCA here https://www.fca.org.uk/market-abuse-reporting-form

The more reports they receive from separate individuals, the higher likelihood they'll take it seriously.

Quite a lot of detail already provided by company in RNSs, seems like an open and shut case, could just be FCA need a bit of a nudge. The one thing is they tend to move at a notoriously slow pace and wouldn't ever give public commentary on an investigation - so if it seems nothing is happening from the outside that doesn't mean they're not actively looking into it.