RE: My analysis on Crest4 Nov 2024 21:29
Good post btw Bobjackson, all sounds reasonable to me. Fwiw shorts have been reducing a tad over last couple of weeks, could be tentative signal it's reaching a bottom.
Bear case largely based around the long track record of operation missteps, market perhaps not yet convinced all in past.
New CEO an opportunity to clean house, it would help to hear more flesh around strategy/turnaround plan.
Bellway pulling out after spending millions on due diligence obviously made market assume the worst. Cladding as you say is the big one. It hasn't helped their provision smaller proportionally than peers' equivalents suggest it should be. Good news is at some point that has to be priced in, but in meantime the uncertainty is a killer. Ideally CEO would come out and say we've done a full audit on all sites and final cost is XX, rip the plaster off and get it over with.