Good point - if we are producing in the next 18 months, the price now will not be that meaningful other than giving a potential snapshot of the scope. Demand and supply of Helium could be quite different by the time we (if we) start producing.
We should see more positive movement before 15:30 as the current trend is taking us close to the bottom of the 1st channel.
Line - https://invst.ly/uyl41 Candle - https://invst.ly/uyl4o
We may end today at break-even, but should be up tomorrow.
Looks like we will finish today around 21.7p. At the current rate of increase, 22p should be broken by lunchtime tomorrow (hopefully). Possibly finishing at 22.4p. 2 days of positive movement and less than 10 trading days until drill starts?
Happy to be holding :o)
I came in at equivalent of 2.57p, investing in the cash shell just before HE1 reverse into it.
I was invested in the previous company though so had some major losses to make up for.
Ended up selling all my other holdings to lump in here around 12.5p and sold out at 23.888p to rebalance my portfolio.
Took me 2 days but when I came back the price had fallen, which was not what I was expecting. Bought back in at 20p,19p & 17p. Taking into account my previous 30k+ loss in AOGL (which hurt), I am now about 7k in profit. About 35k in here for now averaging 19.8p - taken some profit and will hopefully take more in the coming weeks before retaining my core holding to see how this plays out.
I don't use automated stop losses, purely because I have seen some pretty huge swings from tree shakes.
You should definitely have an exit strategy though.
Some people have a % as their limit or a £ amount that they will walk away with as a loss. I tend to have a core holding and another I can play around with. If the SP looks to be falling I sell all but the main holding, looking to buy back in at a better price and reduce my average. Doesn't always work though. Also worth rechecking your portfolio to ensure the companies are still worth investing in.
@SeagullsFan - I should point out I am not a millionaire, so don't put your house on this. That said...
I usually look at the 5 min charts as it provides more detail. In this chart https://invst.ly/uxoq6, the orange line is taken from the high to where we were yesterday on the 1 hour chart. At the start of trading today, it rose to this line then paused slightly as it met some resistance. After 10:00 it broke through, but after reaching the ceiling at 22p, fell back and has been sliding down this line until just before close. The yellow line that the orange line crosses is from the 5 min chart and uses peaks closer rather than the high. If the orange line was moved up slightly to take account of todays peak it would intersect the yellow line at almost exactly the same point as the 2 yellow lines meet. For me, this confirms where the current restriction should end.
However, since the start of April, that purple trend line at the bottom has been the lowest point that the SP has reached. Yesterday was the closest it has come so far to being breached, but I do not think the SP will go below this. So my estimate of the SP movement is between that top yellow line and the purple trend line. https://invst.ly/uxp7h If you can buy tomorrow below 20.89 I think that would be the best you could get. Around 13:00 the orange and purple lines intersect but I think there will be movement before then. The yellow line does not intersect tomorrow but I don't think the market will bother too much about that. 20.89p has acted as both a floor and a ceiling, so this will have more merit. That guide-line intersects the purple line at close of play tomorrow. There is a greater probability that the market will move before this is reached and as I said, I do not believe that the trend line will be breached - especially so close to a pennant ending.
Just my opinion. Feel free to point and giggle if i'm wrong tomorrow. GLA
Thank crunchie for that. I thought the resistance might have held enough to start pushing the SP back down for a bit there.
https://invst.ly/uxim2
We have some old weak ceilings at 22p & 23p from when the SP started to fall from the high. There might be a little resistance around 23p but I think we are now clear to the top of the 1st channel to 24p.
@Joshwaa - 2 charts linked here. The first is my charting with an hourly movement indicator.
You can see that the 1st channel (purple) has held as a base since the start of April. I would like to see the price rise again in line with what I call the weekly trend (Light blue) as this held true for 11 days and was only stopped by the jump at the start of May. The pennants in the last couple of weeks are shown in yellow and orange (on the right). There are only about 6 hours difference in the end of each. https://invst.ly/uxb-i
The 5 min chart that I usually work on is for weekly / biweekly movement. This shows more clearly where I saw the double pennant forming. https://invst.ly/uxc0s I think it will go tomorrow before it gets squeezed too much - I don't want it testing the bottom of my 1st channel for too much longer. lol I'd miss it if it was no longer there. I think the next time the resistance at 20.89 is reached, this will be the breakout signal. And just look at where your orange trend line intersects at the end of trading - 20.89p.
The last pennant a few days ago only us up about 1p until breaking through 19.5p the following day and going to 21p. We are at the very bottom of the monthly channel so reaching the top again would be an increase of over 3p.
Looks like he is expecting the completion of a head and shoulders formation. 2 weeks (or less) before drill, the chances of that happening are very slim. No idea what research he has done on the company so won't comment further - news has a way of screwing up the best of charts.
2 weeks ago, we were trading at 20p - just after the fall had been arrested. After this we did not go below 17.5p although the SP was in a restricting downward channel for almost a week. 1 week ago we were trading around... 20p. The SP was just above the middle of the monthly channel, moved to the top (and broke through to the second channel for a short time), held around 20.89 for a while and started to move to the bottom of the channel; although it was held at the 19.5p floor. The SP rose back to the middle of the channel but had 20.89 act as a weak ceiling. That's where we are now. No major dramas or variation in the SP for the past 2 weeks. We have stabilised and are up about 5% in the last 2 weeks.
https://invst.ly/uwwyy
The next 10 trading days or so will see an end to that stability although we now have some fairly solid floors at 17.5p, 19.5p and shortly 20.89p. I am hoping that at a minimum, the top of the 1st channel (24p) is reached on Wednesday and we hit 26p by the end of the week. That would be around the same increase rate experienced with the old weekly trend.
I'm not going to be disappointed if the SP exceeds this and I have no idea what the market will be doing in the final week leading to drilling. We reached the top of the 3rd channel last time. That would be 33.5p; the top of the 2nd channel would be 30p. If we continued in the middle of the 1st channel for 2 weeks, this would take us to 25p.
I thought it might fall back to 20.5p as there was a gap left on the chart, but this was filled yesterday. Not sure why the price is falling today, but that 19.5p floor seems to be coming into play again. We are back in the middle of the monthly channel, so nothing to be concerned with - just a negative day.
The drill could happen in the first week of June, so thought I'd offer some estimates from my charts. The longer-term trends that seem to have been consistent are the monthly trend ranges.
Based on the start of trading on 7th June:
the 1st channel is from 23.55p to 26.85p;
the 2nd channel reaches 30.1p
and the top of the 3rd channel reaches 33.4p.
We hit the top of the 3rd channel 2 weeks ago at 24.4p. I don't know if we will hit the top of the 3rd channel again, but as the end of month comes closer, we should see more positive movement - especially as we are not certain of the exact drill date. When the last high was hit, there were still 2 weeks to go before drilling was to start. We may be around the same timeline now.
The trend for the last 2 trading days has risen faster than the previous weekly trend. We hit a weak ceiling at 22p (last hit on the 5th), before falling back into the 1st monthly channel and moving between the top of the channel and the old floor at 20.89p.
The next ceilings appear to be the top of the channel (currently 21.5p) which should cross the next ceiling of 22p tomorrow at close at the latest if the trend continues. After this, there may be slight resistance at 23p before the previous peak of 24.32p.
2 days is not enough of a trend to predict anything, but with the drill potentially starting in less than 20 days - on a prime target, I am hopeful it will continue.
https://ibb.co/hdPxBHD
So is this what's meant by a Wyndy breeze?
An Elliott Wave moves between optimism and pessimism - I'm not sure about it being the last leg, but this isn't really a cyclical trend we are seeing either. There is a lot more optimism as the drill date gets closer.
We gapped up at 20.47 - this was the high of the shoulders on either side of the peak a couple of weeks ago. We have also just gone through the top of the 1st monthly channel into the 2nd. Now the bad news - I will need to do more work on the chart as I have run out of resistance points. :o)
I had a look at the daily chart with the RSI. Going back 6 weeks, that pattern is quite attractive, then 3 weeks again it repeated to the high and now seems primed to go again. Is that a bit of a headwind I feel?