Member Info for Glib

Bottom of this channel goes beyond that tomorrow at 11:00.

No such thing as a sure bet when dealing with shares and there may be a retrace at some point with MM's trying to collect shares, but with possibly 2 weeks until drilling starts? For this share? pffft.

Twitter may give you a response. I don't have L2 (or twitter)

@Noob67 Sorry for the late reply. Work got in the way of the important stuff.

Patterns and resistance are not the same thing. Patterns are history repeating - like airlines are less active in the winter and more active in the summer. So the SP may reflect that. Resistance is where the SP has gone down and rebounded - usually more than once. That would be the new floor. When the SP doesn't go beyond a certain SP, that is the roof, but once past this may become the new floor and the new resistance level.

I don't put much faith in teacups and head and shoulder events, but like to see if there is a trend showing positive growth or if it falls below, is there a problem indicating why. That said, there is an old adage - if the share price gets to the level where you would not buy, you should be looking at what price you would sell.

Lunch time is crunch time.
We have about an hour before we see if the monthly channel takes over from the weekly trend.
I know what one I am hoping for. https://ibb.co/W08DNBD

Most people still think of the Hindenburg when talking about Hydrogen as a fuel.
There is a lot of potential in it though. I've seen a few things mentioning hydrogen fuel over the years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMqYQKMmd3U

@Noob67 Basically they can't predict the bad news. It is basically looking at the historic data to predict the potential price should things not change. Analysing the news, you would know that a placing would take place at some point as we were only funded for the drilling - not anything after that.

The longer the period the chart covers, the more stable the prediction and modelling. For a new share like HE1, it is pretty much a very rough guide. It is a little unusual for a share to so closely follow a channel, but the trend of the past week shows us hitting 17-18p tomorrow. I'm pretty sure there will be a consolidation of the SP at some point before moving again, but it is generally increasing 3p every 10 days.

If the trend of the past week continues, we hit 20p by the end of the month. We do need some consolidation to stabalise the price, but I'm more than happy for it to be around that price.

Are we still waiting on those?
They better not be taking any holidays in May if the drill is already in transit.

Must admit, I thought there would be some chat about the way the chart is looking for the month. No idea how to post a link to a picture, but it does look really interesting - even just the basics. Hopefully this works. Https://ibb.co/bXbzBG1

We have been moving in a channel of about 3.5p.
1st, 16th and 22nd we bounced off the bottom at 7.46, 10.29 and 11.66 respectively.
11.66 was the old floor and moved outwith the channel on the 22nd.

I thought that the new ceiling of 14.22 would slow us down, but it didn't. We're now at the top of the channel and have been for most of the day. At the start of next month, 14.22 moves outwith the channel and the top will be 17.5p.

We moved beyond the current channel once before between the 9th and 14th. This created a narrow channel of 1.7p that we have been in before. We are currently about to move into that channel if we go above 16p. Following the trend of the past week, that will happen on the 28th at around 16.55p. That is a very narrow projection however.

The next channel is between 16 and 19.27. If we bobbled along the top of the current channel, we would reach 19.27 on the 11th and 16p would be moving outwith the channel. At that time, the top of the next channel (we are on the brink of entering) would have a top of 22.63p. That's assuming current rate of progression...

Anyone else excited?

Does anyone have any info on the intraday volume being traded?
I can't find any info to compare, but it looks like some hefty amounts.

£164k ? It looks like a buy.
That's worse than me!

I wonder if the MM's did a little something to ensure that got through at a good price.

So disappointed to see the SP go back down today. Exactly what I didn't want to see happen, but I had to take action.

2 of my other shares I had been holding on to as movement could be quite soon, but sold them and lumped in here at 12.5p. The SP will be back up as drilling could be within the next 3 weeks. I'll just have to hope there isn't too much activity in those other shares for another month.

Just tested selling 200k - offered 13.3
Looks like the market is still happy to take shares. I have no idea where the SP is going now.

The power of FOMO.

Large buys going through. Looks like some who missed out getting all they wanted in the placing are buying their shares in market.

Has there been a name change or has Google Charts gone loco?

Good and bad in that RNS. SP will be increasing as drilling date gets closer and commences, so no concerns for the mid-long term.

Definitely an aggressive approach to get the funding in place for the Appraisal drilling before seismic has even completed. Significantly oversubscribed, so the market is quite happy that there will be no problem filling purchase orders for the stock.

SP has fallen over the last 4 days; not sure how "leaky" this has been. Existing shareholders totally ignored and not given any incentive to support the company as the SP drops to around the placing price. With the oversubscription, shareholders could have been offered a chance to invest at a reduced price to a higher general placing price. Not sure who their advisors are, but will be looking closer at this in the future.

Can't really argue about them securing funds while there is so much interest and movement in the SP. 20% is a bit on the high side, but that's the equivalent of 17p pre-placing, so we're in the right ballpark. All in all a bit bleugh, but nothing really bad and the SP will recover in a couple of weeks as we get closer to drilling.

Strange how this was one of my best and worst shares. Before HE1 reversed into AOGL I tried buying the dips, but there were no real rises and it just kept going down. I have made a lot back but still not at breakeven, although I have managed to gradually increase my holding over the last 4 months without investing any extra money.

The SP has been going sideways for around 4 months - I kept a core holding, but tried to sell the remainder on the highs then buy the lows. Missed a few and mistimed a few, but gradually increased my core holding as I kept hold of the extra shares this created. I was confident that no matter what, the SP would be going up when it got close to drilling time; so even if I had ended up buying at a peak, my level of exposure was something I felt comfortable with. If you think the SP will finish higher than it is now, buy. You can sell part of your holding to buy in lower if you think the SP has spiked for the day and will fall back.

We now have around 4 weeks until drilling starts if mid May is still the target. People are taking longer term positions and traders will be reducing their activity. FOMO - fear of missing out. There will still be intraday fluctuations, but I am not sure there will be many days where the SP is down from now on. There will be some profit taking - that's why we are all here at the end of the day. I think we have about 3 weeks of gradual increases before we see a last surge of investors coming in. Some will want to be in for the drill results, but some will want out before the drilling start as there are no guarantees of a commercially viable find.

Work out how much you are willing to lose and don't have much more than that in before you think the drill results will be announced. If you think the company will either strike at Rukwa or one of their other sites, then pay your money and place your bets. The risk/reward are both high, but I wouldn't want anyone to think there is no risk.

6 months ago I was sitting on a large loss because I'm a stubborn fool - that's why I went offline for about 2 years. If I hadn't invested £1.5k here when it was a cash shell I would still have most of that loss. If Covid hadn't happened, HE1 would probably be on the Australian Stock exchange instead of here and I'd still have my losses.

Taking profit is never a bad thing, even if you miss out on more profit. You haven't lost any of your money and can look for the next opportunity. Work out how much you could accept losing and you better have a good reason for exceeding that exposure. I hope I've learned my lesson - I hope you don't repeat it.

GLA DYOR.

This is disturbing and unnatural.
Northcote, Mayan & AOGL - I remember them falling by 25% in a day, but increasing?
It's witchcraft I tell ya.

So far my predictions for SP movement have been spot on. I think that is about to change.
I thought we would reach 14-15p on announcement that drilling had commenced. Looks almost as light as Helium now, that estimate.

I would go for a good sign for this.
The gas is having to be forced through the porus rock so it could mean that the flow rate is so great, that the gas has nowhere else to go. If we extract and the natural flow rate continues, it will not reduce at the same rate we are extracting at as the gas will continue to be released from the mantle. That's my theory.

If the gas is escaping because there is no seal, the other 2 sites have a salt seal or something that is a natural seal, so there should be less escaping gas through the years. I'm hoping that this is a successful site and also our worst, so we get more from the others. Possibly wishful thinking, but...