It may depend on how this opens in the morning, but I am expecting a tree shake so that the MM's have shares after the weekend. I'm not sure they will be able to collect many on Friday. That said, the past week may have been just that with the SP being depressed - still not sure if that was down to reduced volume or not.
DM left the UK today so I don't expect him to be on site before 17:00 our time tomorrow. I would expect the 400m to be drilled by then, but not sure how long it takes to do the tests (or how many times), then interpret the results. Say a day for each? I think the weekend will be when confirmation and sign off of a discovery takes place with an RNS on Monday / Tuesday.
I tidied up my chart (a little) which shows we are back in line with the trend I was lamenting the loss of just over a week ago. This had held true as the baseline for 7 weeks. We may see 21.5p or 20.89p revisited, but I think it would need to do so before 14:00 as the weight of movement is very clearly upwards with news anticipated.
Worst case scenario, it could move between 20.5p and 22p. 21.5p and 22p have not yet acted as a floor for the SP, but I expect them to soon. The baseline may act as a guide for the SP until the results are announced however I can see tomorrow closing at 23p and Friday at 24p. I am not sure if the ATH will be passed, but if Fear Of Missing Out hits, then certainly possible. https://ibb.co/nkLCJrG
In one of the interviews he did say "we're back now", which seems to indicate it was a temporary relocation. I can imagine that this project is one of the most potentially impactful DM has ever been in charge of and wanted to do it right. He is also not choosing between work and family, so kudos to him.
lol. You got quite a reaction to that post, but I agree we should be looking at everything from all angles and asking questions. I don't think there is anything to this other than if this is the world's largest Helium discovery, he wants to be there to shake the hands and thank the people that helped make this all possible. Good politics and good business.
DM probably wants to be there for the test and see the results first hand - and to get a read of how rich he's going to be.
There are supposed to be 2 mass spectrometers on site, aren't there? Hopefully we'll be able to get some kind of corroboration about the potential grade as well as seeing if this can be deemed a discovery.
I was not sure of the difference between the two of these at first but think I have worked it out now. Please DYOR - I may have FUBAR. Hopefully it isn't contagious
We are not doing a DST. My understanding is that this would test formation temperature, pressure and flow of any helium.
Numerous tools are sent down the borehole, connected together as one long rod. There are a large number of potential tools and I have no idea what we will be using. I believe that data is transmitted back up the wireline as the rod is pulled back up the borehole.
Basic idea (advert): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3mzQTMwkV4&t
What we get from it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0_BqY-ApEM
I mostly look at the 5 min chart which is good for very short term trends (a few days). The hourly chart can show trends over longer durations and is better for seeing where the price has been before. This image shows both https://ibb.co/RhGWQg9 (you should be able to zoom in)
On the 5 min chart, we bounced off a trendline (ATH - 21/05) close to the 17.52p resistance. We opened today by gapping up and moving beyond the top of the channel created by the downward trend (low of 14th-17th) replicated against the high of the 15th. The top of that channel is currently 18.4p, so we may be moving out of that channel now.
From the low on the 18th to the low today, there is an upward trend; which if replicated against the high of the 18th, creates a very weak (1 day) channel. The top of this is 18.53p so we may be close or just above this. These 2 channels have intersected and this crossover ends at 09:25 on the 23rd. The intersection point is around 17.7p, so if we can finish tomorrow close to the 18p resistance, we may be in a new upwards trending channel (even if it is almost flat).
If we finish tomorrow above 18.6p, we will be beyond the top of the weak channel. The next resistance points would be 18.78p (from 30/04) and 19p with a second channel reaching 19.4p when set against today's high. I am not sure if we have finished the downward trend yet, but we are moving in the right direction. If the resistance at 17.52p or even 18p can hold then I would say it was very likely we had achieved a reversal.
The next resistance point is 16.65p which is just below the rebound point of the drop after the ATH. The trendline we just bounced off reaches 16.65p on Thursday lunchtime at the same time it intersects the top of the channel we've been in for the last few days. We do not want to go anywhere near that as there is only 1 weak resistance point at 15.62p until we reach 14.23p. We will have reached the first trap before that happens and I do not believe we will be short on news. The market will add its own resistance if we were to go any lower but I think there is room for cautious optimism that we are levelling out if we have not already done so.
My take on this was that an initial wellhead was drilled and cased (55m)
The PQ drill was inserted into the case and continued to 400m. This hole was then cased.
The thinner HQ drill was inserted into the case and drilled another 400m or whatever the base of the next trap is then tested.
The thinner NQ drill is used for the final section.
Just my take on it.
I can follow the market logic which is why the price is following, but I don't agree with it.
We know that Helium is migrating across the region as there are seeps in various locations. This does not mean that the Helium is only coming from one location, but that there is movement from the source to surrounding areas due to porosity in the rocks.
We do not know if there is a concentration of helium which would make this drill commercially viable. That seems to be the mindset of the market right now and until a "discovery" is shown, all we have is potential. After we reach 400m and test using the wireline that may change, but looks like the MM's are either loading up or people still do not like the risk/reward ratio.
My initial plan was to sell out at 14p, but the SP kept rising.
I rebalanced my portfolio but bought back in on the way down from the initial rise.
My plan is now to try to come up with a plan. I'll have a look at the charts...
Good spot Suedey. I've only read it once, but am sure I will do so a few more times today.
Slightly worried about DM though. He looked knackered in the last interview so hate to think how little sleep he'll get in the next few days. Especially if he's going to be raising a glass to this news.
Drilling would have started slower until the wellhead was cemented in, to reduce chances of a blowout.
55m @ 17:00, 19th June - 8.5cm drilling started after casing was cemented in place
70.5m @ 18:30, 19th June - 2.2% Helium detected in mud.
Drilling through shales probably slowed them down and even then seems to be at 10m per hour. This will reduce somewhat as more weight is added to the drill, but now by much as the rig can hold 45 tonnes. Do we get news tomorrow or even an intraday RNS about reaching the base of the lake bed? Probably wishful thinking - otherwise they wouldn't say it takes a month to drill to 1200m. I would hope for news by Friday though - assuming we go slower as the depth increases.
We test using wireline suite, case the hole and I assume we move to an HQ 6.35cm drill. I expect we'll get a bit more technical data once that is done. It is the wireline that can tell us if there is a reservoir etc. so exciting times.
Forgot to say... https://invst.ly/v6hd-
Hit a trendline and bounced. SP often falls at the start of a drilling campaign as it is a known unknown and the market likes to know. The only things that have happened in the last few days is the drill has gotten closer to the first trap and the SP has fallen back to where it was last week.
We are 1 week in to a 4 week drill of the first of three or four holes at this site. I'm just glad i'm on medication.
DM said each drill would take about a month. We will be more than half way to the first Trap by Monday, but don't think we'll be at 600m. I reckon we may be around the 400m mark by then.
We should be seeing something in the muds soon. Well, not seeing - or even smelling. Mass-Spec, time to do your thing.