Member Info for Glengarth

Sorry meant to say I hope such a trading statement/results will provide a forecast/guidance on production and sales post end of the reporting period for the year so far. No certainty they will do! But could be a good way for the company to get across the message of movement towards profitability etc

We may get a trading update next month, similar to last year and unaudited statements for the year ended March 2022. As we know since then the 9,000tpa operation is up and running and the company has found efficiencies to improve such as the CFS, hydropower and the latest pre-concentration pit approach etc. Any update next month or indeed the final results due to be published in September will provide guidance and a forecast for production and sales since the end of the period and for the year so far since March with which investors will be able to extrapolate and see clearly the direction is headed. However if it’s all positive I expect the company to make that very clear.

GLA

Incidentally Syrah Resources have today signed an MoU with Ford and SK On for its downstream products that are supplied from its Balama mine in Mozambique...a good model to forecast for TGR on completion of the BAT deal imo

https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1550417693030973440?s=20&t=yoFGm8juLCkdcopO0maxJQ

GLA

Found the presentation very good all in all. Great to dismiss notions of taking TGR private and no desire or need to equity raise at these low prices which clearly the company recognises is not placing appropriate value on itself. Sounded confident for the next few months certainly!

Skeletor, my answer would be that Shishir made clear how significant it is for a company at TGR's stage to reach profit and a positive bottom line. I think when that happens (in the near term imo) then a lot of alternative funding options become available. Think debt or a revolving credit facility etc, which reduces the need for equity fundraising, and is the benefit of being the lowest capex Graphite company. No other company has the flexibility to build the way TGR does.

Great to hear Shishir recognise the importance of the Mozambique assets and the commitment from both parties, BAT and TGR to completing the deal, just waiting on government ministerial approval. As Shishir mentioned the different type of graphite these will primarily provide I think it's important to recognise the significant contributions these may have on downstream plans - could basically do a Syrah Resources as the graphite is perfect for natural graphite anode precursor material.

I hope a resolution to the TSG impasse is found soon and believe the market is going to correct upwards when it recognises the strong position TGR is actually in imo.

GLA

Logical yes, but logical improvements are sometimes only found after working for some time tbf! If you read the historic RNS feeds on Madagascar operations you can read how they have continuously changed and tweaked things here and there when they’ve innovated and found a different way of doing something results in more efficiency and savings…

It’s a case of constant re-iteration and innovation of established mining practices and is why TGR achieves
Industry low costs.

Great to see the hydropower is imminent - more savings and a boost to TGR’s ESG credentials

Don't know where that's come from - graphite (natural and synthetic) makes up the main (often only) part of the Anode of a Lithium-ion battery, not the Cathode.

indeed the signs were there another deal was being worked on. Great work Cloke and team!

Wow - Afentra's management are really showing their higher caliber compared to so many others. This additional deal is another fantastic string to the bow!

Worth reviewing the details in the updated presentation:
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://afentraplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Afentra-Second-Acquisition-final.pdf

Building up very very nicely for readmission and resumption of trading!

Would encourage all to ask their questions on the IMC platform:

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/tirupati-graphite-plc/register-investor

Register, attend and "ask a question", pretty sure you can ask unlimited q's on there, obviously win't be time to answer every question they get. Reserving judgement until after the Q&A, hopefully they can clarify the position on a few things.

GLA

Great news, Dale already getting the message across - to add to below discussion; if all goes well SAV’s MdB will be Europe’s Lithium darling for a while, and I’d expect that sentiment to be reflected across a whole range of European as well as British investor (+more from further behind) occupying the share register.

GLA

Indeed Skeletor - having a positive bottom line demonstrating current operations work well and effectively as they should opens up many other options for funding which does not rely on placings - as those who like to point out as the largest shareholders the Concert party have no interest in diluting themselves (and us) at these levels just as the business is ramping up toward profitability? Certainly i'd expect alternative options to continue to fasttrack the business in Madagascar are being looked at as free cash flow grows and makes them available. Graphite is still a relatively new Western industry , both upstream and downstream with only Imerys having an operating mine in Canada (now owned by Northern Graphite) and Establissements Gallois SA operating a sizeable operation to date in Madagascar (near TGR) and so as the proliferation of companies spread it almost feels like we're still at proof of concept stage. That will change very quickly imo at 30,000tpa.

GLA

Hi Skeletor, you're correct, TPA is is 'tonnes per annum', tonnes also being written as MT(s) in reports for production and sales figures - another way of seeing this in real life is the 1MT jumbo bags miners use to fill with their product, in TGR's case Graphite concentrate, and which the company sells. 1,000kgs makes 1MT.

We have had installed capacity of 12,000tpa since December 2021. But the company has to debottlenecked and ramp up operations at the new 9,000tpa plant. From the installed capacity the company starts at about 30% production and takes 3 quarters to ramp up to steady state production capacity. As we are now 2+ quarters since December, and considering the content of the last operational RNS, I think we can expect the production and sales figures to increase towards the 2,250MTs per quarter at the 9,000tpa Vatomina plant + around 750MT per quarter out of the 3,000tpa Sahamamy plant. Of course this depends on things like weather and ability to operate at the larger scale, and actual sales pipeline, and production will probably never be 100%.

However, I actually haven't considered this latest point in much depth and realised that the highest quarterly shipment and sales of 1,137MT for Q4 (Jan-March) recorded in the operational RNS is extremely good news - it suggests that the combined operation of Sahamamy (3,000/4 = 750) and Vatomina are working at 80% of their planned output if you take into account the 30% start up rate at Vatomina (9,000/4 = 2,250 - @30% = 675) - and that is despite the terrible weather in Jan-March (max 675 @30% Vatomina +750 Sahamamy = 1,425MT. 1,137/1,425 = 79.8%).

The improved mining fleet and infrastructure should help speed up operations-ramp at all new plants. Assuming Vatomina ramp up is progressing, being conservative if we add 20% to the 1st quarter of this year (April-June) so Vatomina is at 50% we could expect something like 1,125 (9,000/4=2,250 @50%) + 750 = 1,875MTs...the same going up to 70% for July-September = 1,575+750= 2,325MTs. I have probably been over-optimistic on the Sahamamy 750MT figure each time, but then possibly conservative on the % utilisation of the Vatomina plant in the FY22 Q1+Q2 forecasts. If we get news that these ramp up stages are being met, and if we can get to that golden 2,000MTs of sales a quarter number that will be very good. I've just pulled that number of the air as don't know the exact number we need to hit net profit, but it seems like a good place to start.

To your original question, essentially like all mining projects while we have the capacity installed, it takes a little while to get those operations running at full speed from the moment they commission. From the prospectus they anticipated 3 quarters to get the 9,000tpa up to speed and anticipate only 2 quarters for the first new 18,000tpa module based off lessons learnt.

Hope this and my side discussion is somewhat helpful

Hi all,

BRES clearly have a sizeable good grade project on their hands, I wouldn't worry about the timing of the PFS...in this market more important to make sure things are done thoroughly and at a sensible rate of cash burn. Will be having a look in when it's announced, as BRES is one of the v few graphite plays on the London markets.

GLA

Indeed Mhow, BAT shareholders have already voted through the deal, and in their last quarterly activity reported:
"Progressing the completion of sale of the Montepuez and Balama Graphite Projects to Tirupati
Graphite (TGR:LSE) for $12.5M in cash and shares, providing exposure to the graphite market
whilst focusing the Company on its Australian copper-gold strategy"

So I would expect a similar note in BAT's next quarterly report at the end of this month, depending on the status of the transaction at that point.

Thanks SI - it's now up to TGR to continue working through the MTDP for its Madagascan operations, continuing to ramp them up to nameplate production and sales asap to bring forward net profit to this FY ideally for the 12,000tpa currently, and which will hopefully be boosted by completion of the extra 18,000tpa module, hydropower reducing costs, and the CFS making operations more efficient. Hard work towards the vision ahead, while TSG arrangement is sorted out.
Interesting the note mentions the BAT deal remains a likely near term objective, I look forward to the update toward the end of this month to see just what that will mean....wouldn't be surprised if it's postponed again while the company gets its house in order tbh, but would be a big win to get those assets under TGR's belt, provided there is a plan in place for them to deal with offtake/customers/sales and construction/development costs etc.

GLA

We should have half year results before Christmas - see last year they were released 2nd December for the 6 months to September, so either way you will get another update pretty soon after the full year results are released in September.

I think the threats flying around are overrated and some have recently come out of the woodwork to suggest such theories. Not denying these completely but they appear rathe overblown, although price action does nothing to reassure investors at this level….

Like you say Skeletor, unlike those companies you mention DDDD and AVCT, TGR has not signed a ridiculously onerous term sheet for a loan which it could not afford or maintain (in the case of DDDD), and it has revenue, and is about to hit profitability on its business of primary mining in Madagascar (unlike AVCT, which is a high cash burn medical treatment development company showing good promise). Bringing in TSG would add serious value, and by the sounds of it from the last RNS it is TSG which is in need of extra capital for its development, not TGR. How this plays out and what it means for the combination of TSG and TGR is anyones guess…
We could do with updates on the state and progress of
Work at the downstream projects similar to June last year.

We will have full year results published in September, maybe some unaudited ones in August to give us a sense of play like last year.

I hope we also get an update on the ramp up of production and sales as they will be critical to working out if the company is to be profitable this year in which case happy days on the TGR/Madagascar side. Let's see how the team works its way forward.

More questions remain of course on the TSG and downstream issue which is what attracted so many investors in the first place...

are you quoting the Telegraph's Tory leadership latest column, dryland? lol