Member Info for GingerHippo

From the RNS dated 30 Sep:

"and recently DLA Piper on the legal side to work with the Company through the sale process."

This is clear as day.

WWTBOOTW

Don't touch a cliché with a ten foot pole

Of course I'll continue investing.

But nothing like EUA will ever come up for me again. Of that I'm certain. It's not just the exceptional return so far, it's how certain it was (and is). So much so that my portfolio is very heavily weighted with EUA. I'd never do that again, so coud never again get that sort of return across my PF.

Sorry, not EBITDA, I mean gross profit. And not cost of goods sold, I mean 'cost of sales'

I'll give it a rough go below. But even if you don't like my calculations, doesn't make the rampy ones any more true. I'd like to keep my feet firmly on solid facts.

From the RNS dated 21/09/2020, SYME will have access to the following lines of credit. Not all will necessarily be used by then. Let's assume half is used (change this if you want).

o €4bn by the end of 2021

o €5.5bn end 2022

o €7bn end 2023

o €8bn end 2024

£0.9 to the Euro and at 3% profit to SYME (per the RNS):

2021 - (4000/2x0.9x3%=) £54M
2022 - £75M
2023 - £94.5M
2024 - £108M

From interim statement on 30 June (using last year's figures since this year's were distorted by the RTO), costs of goods sold was 40% of revenue. So EBITDA is 60% of the above:

2021 - £32M
2022 - £45M
2023 - £57M
2024 - £65M

Then there's admin and finance costs on top of that, but these are more fixed. So knock off another million or 2 from the above.

So net profit in 2021 would be something like £30M. Nobody knows what the PE ratio will be, but to get 16p, that would be a PE ratio of 166, which I think is unlikely. If it has a PE ratio of, say 40, that would be £1.2Bn mcap which is 3.5p in about 18 months. A phenomenal return by anyone's standards.

I wrote the below and felt it was argumentative in tone. I don't mean it to be. I've done a fair amount of research and am holding millions of share now, so please take my posts in the spirit they are intended - getting to the truth. That's all. If I'm wrong about something, I want to learn.

Rugby, how did you arrive at 15-20 billion in assets?

You added 4Bn to 1.6Bn. That's 5.6Bn. At 1.2% (where does 1.2% come from? AZ said 2-3% if memory serves) that's £67.2M.

Again, that's revenue, not net profit. Net profit will be substantially lower than this.

Plus we won't get these figures in writing until the 2021 accounts are published in mid-2022, so we have a long journey ahead of us. I'm sure it's going to be a great journey, but it moves slower than some people think.

Again, Peace, please read my posts properly before commenting on them.

It's really annoying to have someone argue with something I didn't say.

Peace, please read my posts properly before commenting on them.

I said we don't want to come crashing down.

Both overpriced and likely to come crashing down to reality in due course. We don't want that.

As far as I can see revenues are growing about 30% a quarter. That's phenomenal and will result in the share price going up.

Let me preface by saying that I'm an optimistic holder. But.....

a) PE ratio is based on net profit not revenue.
b) a 100 PE ratio is very high
c) I think £50M revenue next year is far too optimistic given that we're at less than a million now.

But the great thing about a tech company like this is that revenues can grow very quickly, so I might be wrong. Hey, I hope I'm wrong.

Broker targets are useless in my experience.

16p means an mcap of over £5Bn. Getting there within a year.......... I don't think so.

It's not always easy to hear the nuances AZ says in interviews

I don't remember him saying that TBH. Don't forget our retained earnings is still negative by £4.5M, so we'd have to earn more than that before we could get any dividends.

A bit clearer:

Quote from AZ in his interview last month:

"But we could arrange for instance a UK deal , working alongside the UK partner, the captive bank and also serve big brands that I spoke with recently where there is a big brand in the UK that could be supported by Supply@Me. We are talking with this new large corporate, so we have the opportunity to arrange also big size transactions."

Who do you think he means by 'big brand'? What if the next RNS name drops a real household name?

Think about that for a sec..............

Quote from AZ in his interview last month:"But we could arrange for instance a UK deal , working alongside the UK partner, the captive bank and also serve big brands that I spoke with recently where there is a big brand in the UK that could be supported by Supply@Me. We are talking with this new large corporate, so we have the opportunity to arrange also big size transactions."Who do you think he means by 'big brand'? What if the next RNS name drops a real household name?Think about that for a sec..............

I managed to buy in HL at just under 0.5

Does anybody doubt that a sale is extremely likely to happen?
Does anybody doubt that such a sale would be for far more than our current market cap?
Does anybody doubt that the deal is very close to being finished?

If you answered yes to any of the above, how confident are you in that answer really?

Apparently 5% of people still would answer yes to the above (according to IG). They seem to have the confidence of King Canute!

I don't think you're right, Mac

Normal speeding tickets say something like "we know of no material developments behind the recent rise"

This speeding ticket said something very very very different:

"There have been no new developments requiring formal notification beyond those included in the Company's announcement of interim results on 30 September 2020."

Instead of "no reason for the rise" it says "nothing requiring formal notification". IE there is a reason for the rise, but nothing we have to RNS yet.

Instead of "no reason" it says "no reason except the absolutely fabulous RNS we gave you just days ago". IE if you're not sure why the price has risen, have another read of that last RNS which remains true.

If $659 gets an IRR of 15%, that implies a base cost of $573.

At today's price of $2,459, that would mean an IRR of ........................... wait for it ....................... 329%