Member Info for GingerHippo

Those of us who have been in for more than a couple of month are used to this kind of thing. It has happened many times since 2.5p. Yawn.

You're 100% correct AnyOil, hence so many likes to your posts from people who agree but don't want to be called trolls. Cos that's all these 3 or 4 vocal people are doing. Just call everyone negative a troll and sucker PIs into buying. They have a lot to answer for. Will not talk about the company itself. They will not say why they think this company is going places. They will certainly call me a troll for saying this.

UKOG have accumulated losses of over £80M. How many barrels of oil do they need to sell to make those losses back? Cash flow is negative £6M a year, so the £1.5M they have isn't enough and placing is basically inevitable IMO.

But they won't respond to these points, they'll just call me a troll and report my posts. As if they're on the good side and anyone negative has bad intentions. I think it is quite the other way round.

But if any genuine LTHs want to explain why they are positive on the company, I will read with interest.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5oPYRG9wn8

Refresher course on what bashers try to do.

http://cdn.ceo.ca.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/1dr223l-Anatomy%20of%20a%20Basher%20-%20Do%20and%20Don%27t.pdf

104.6M oz of PGM, Pt price is about $1200, Pd is about $2700. Let's call it $2000 average. Let's say in-situ value is about 10%.

104.6M x $2000 x 75% x 0.1 x0.72 = £11.3Bn. Or about £4 per share.

That's on top of the approx £3Bn for MT (or the famous 78p)

And doesn't include the extra 25% of the 104.6M oz that we have the option to buy.

Or lil' old WK.

I'm absolutely NOT saying we will be bought out for £4.78.

But I am saying we are worth way more than 25/26p. Waaaaaay more.

Based on current production in Egypt we'll be making over £10M in 2021. Mcap just over £30M. Go figure.

In a year where even majors (BP, Shell etc) made losses, we made money. But the silly market is looking at us like we're Tullow or something. Silly silly market.

John, I'll be brief cos nobody wants to hear it. The company has lost it's biggest client and this may be a factor in getting more business. Problems like this highlight the risk that there may be deeper issue (why is there a dispute at all?). Q4 sales in dispute so will likely lose a bundle there too. The cash pile is the only thing holding up the sp right now but doesn't justify the large mcap previously enjoyed. Pre Covid this was loss-making so why would anyone think it will be profitable after Covid, which all non shareholders hope is very soon.

I actually can't understand why all LTHs seem to think that losing the biggest client by far due to a dispute shouldn't knock 40% off the value. As a neutral observer it seems obvious to me that it would.

UOG produced over 2,000 net bopd in Q1, and is now producing over 2,600 net bopd. At $60 per barrel that's about $55M this year, of which UOG gets 43% of the revenue, or $23.5M. Cost of $6 per barrel comes to $5.5M, so that's about $18M a year, or £13M a year. Take off £2M for admin costs and UOG are making about £11M per year. At 32M mcap that's a PE of just 3 for a growing company. 3!!

Plus there is likely to be higher productions coming soon with more wells in Egypt.
Plus Jamaica.................

We should be 5 times higher than this. At least.

I think differently. The issue isn’t the amount of debt but the ebitda so I don’t see the sense in refinancing or selling equity. We’re so close to shops reopening. I think it’s likely the banks will waive the covenants a while longer till we get sales up and running again.

True, you do need to look ahead and not back. I haven't done any research so I won't comment more. But it's not the kind of company I'm looking for atm.

Had a quick look. mcap of £24M and lost £11M last year, £19M the year before. Not for me thanks.

Also forgot to mention, if you want people to take your posts seriously, you need to write in a more calm style. Some of the posts this morning have been needlessly aggressive.

Net profit has gone down slightly each year before Covid, but revenue has gone up every year. To me it suggest the business is expanding but needs to increase margins (as discussed yesterday), which they have done by increasing the price from 59p to 69p. That extra 10p per card is massive. Average customer basket value has gone up.

I see people keep complaining that online sales are not good enough, but it actually grew 64% in the interim report. People are projecting their own buying habits onto the whole market. As it happens, I bought cards from Card Factory before I was a shareholder. I independently chose them over mp or fp. I also much prefer buying cards from the shop than online because it's cheaper and because I want to be able to write in it without sending it through the post twice which takes ages. But that's not the point, the point is that the figures are pretty good.

Before Covid sales were growing every year. Tbh I’m not sure what you mean. Is there a chance you’re projecting your own shopping habits onto the market as a whole?

If sales after covid return to normal we’re looking at a PE ratio of about 4 at current price. I don’t think an investor can go far wrong here.

It’s a crazy story. Card opened its first shop on 1997 and now has over 1,000. I think it’s a bit much to accuse it of a lack of growth.

There’s a 5 year growth strategy in the interim report:

The refreshed growth strategy was communicated to investors and colleagues towards the period end with focused, deliverable growth targets for the period to FY25:
• Revenue of c. £635m, of which c. 20% will be derived from a broadly equal split between Online & Multichannel and Retail Partnerships;
• Underlying PBT of c. £105m;
• c.5,600 Distribution Points (UK and International), of which c.1,100 will be Group operated stores;
• Group market share of c. 45% of UK card volume; and
• Underlying leverage range of 1.2x to 2.6x (defined as Net Debt divided by Underlying PBT)

From recent RNS:

short term cash requirement can be covered within our existing £200m bank facility,

covenants breached as the significant impact of the national lockdowns are reflected in our trading performance.

material reduction in our utilisation of the debt facility, resulting in net debt being reduced to £90m as at 31 December 2020,

We would not expect this facility to be fully utilised unless the national lockdown, restricting non-essential retailers from trading, continues beyond the end of April 2021.

While it’s true that net profit has gone slightly down each year prior to the pandemic, revenue has actually gone up every year. PE ratio is very low right now. ROCE is high. Room for growth especially online. New CEO. Of course Covid has been a challenge but I think this is a very good opportunity and I think we will get at least 3 bags from here in the next few years.

Btw I bought my family birthday cards online during the pandemic. I only bought shares this week so at the time I didn’t care who I bought the cards from. Checking my emails, turns out I bought them from........ yep, Card Factory. So they must be doing something right.

Edit: not despite Covid, up to Covid.

Seems crazy under-valued atm.

PE ratio is about 4. Revenue has increased every year for at least 5 years, despite Covid.

Short term debt is a bit high, as everyone knows, but I feel confident this will be sorted because there is so much potential here. A very profitable company.

I just wish I would have noticed this stock 3 weeks ago in the 30s. Oh well.

Oh, and you still haven’t linked the eua valuation you mentioned. I’m going to say it doesn’t exist.

Good night dear derampers