My 2.5p10 May 2023 11:36
I think this drop is a mixture of some PIs accepting that there is risk here, and MMs taking full advantage. Nothing specific has happened this week to justify this kind of sudden drop, but I was surprised by how long 3.5p stood up.
But that doesn't mean I've sold any shares lately even at 3.5p. And I'm not going to.
There is a balance here between two competing, and highly significant, situations.
On the one hand there's a war on with sanctions. These do not at present directly affect us, but it's impossible to argue there is no risk there.
On the other hand we have large, valuable proven resources. People are focussed on the delayed DFS on MT and getting annoyed / losing hope. They have forgotten the independent JORC CPR valuation which resulted in a positive NPV of US$1.19Bn under the WAI Forecast scenario and $1.69Bn under the spot prices scenario.
The fact is that the company has cash and practically no debt. It's very hard for a company to go bust if it has no debt, so I'm fairly sure we're safe on that front.
So to my mind it's a balance between the two things above. The huge value in our proven reserves versus the risk of sanctions preventing us from realising that value and how long that risk might last.
The lower the share price the more positive that risk/reward is, so there should be a point at which the market settles as nobody would want to sell something potentially so valuable so cheap, even with the risk. Where that point is, I'm not sure, but I certainly won't be selling any shares.