Member Info for GingerHippo

So typical. Traders think things will be quiet so they sell off what they see as a slow-moving stock, despite the great fundamentals and huge potential.

Then they see an RNS that there'll be an update in a month so they need to buy back in cos everyone familiar with this company knows the chances are that the update will be great.

Lesson is don't sell out of stocks with good fundamentals and a large growth runway for a spot of trading.

My point exactly, Upzeplums

Per the accounts, SYME has the following employees:

2 Executive directors

4 Finance, risk and HR

3 Sales and marketing

1 Legal

11 Operations and platform development

@Luckybob, I'll resist the urge to dissect your post and get straight to the main point.

If they have lots of staff, who surely must be doing something, then progress must be being made and at some point it will turn and become a viable business. Would you agree with that?

Although I came onboard because of statements made in RNSs, which turn out to have been misleading to put it charitably, I won't sell now at such a huge loss because I think at some point this will turn and the share price will be higher than it is today. How high it can go is anyone's guess.

Sorry. typo. That should read "If this was all one big scam, why does SYME have so many people on payroll?"

@chewy8uk 10 Aug 2024 10:24

That's the sticking point for me. If this was all one big scam, why does SYME have no may people on payroll?

It would mean a) that AZ was essentially paying out of his own pocket (by not keeping more of the IPO money for himself) for staff that are doing nothing and b) that all of them are so spineless that not one will admit that they're all sitting around all day nothing nothing? Why would you hire a bunch of people just to involve them in conspiracy when the conspiracy would work much better with fewer people?

So logic tells me they must be doing something and progress (however infuriatingly slow) must be being made.

I'd like to reiterate:

H2 2023 revenue was £65M, H2 2024 is expected to be around £74M.

That would be a 14% year-on-year increase.

So, revenue for 2024 is around £139M with £83M costs and £11M tax, giving net profit of £36M.

So revenue for 2025 at a 14% increase would be £158M, with say £84M costs and say £12M tax, giving a net profit of £62M

Revenue for 2026 at a 14% increase would then be £180M, with say £85M costs and say £14M tax, giving a net profit of £86M.

At a PE of 15, the market cap in 3-4 years could well be £1,290M, or a share price of 507p

Cab has now joined the Investor Meet Company platform, so there's a good chance of better comms going forward.

https://x.com/InvestorMeetCo/status/1818988905913364841

H2 2023 revenue was £65M, H2 2024 is expected to be around £74M.

That would be a 14% year-on-year increase.

By the way, H2 2023 revenue was £65M, so if H2 2024 is £74M that would be a 14% year-on-year increase. So I think the worst is behind us now. Onwards and upwards.

Phew, that makes a lot more sense.

Those figures are very close to what I calculated.

I got revenue of £130M. The RNS says full year is expected to be marginally lower than 2023. I take marginally to be around 5%. 95% of 2023's revenue is £130M. We got £56M in H1 so I calculated H2 revenue to be £74M.

The 2023 accounts show £78M of recurring expenses and unusually high non-recurring expenses. If we use the more normal 2022 non-recurring expenses of £5M you get total expenses of £83M. That gives profit before tax of £47M. Tax of around £11M gets you £36M net profit, ie an EPS of 14.2p.

That's either a typo or an error on their system. 14p is just plain stupid.

Especially as Canaccord has 214p, for the consensus to be as low as 14p everyone else must be targeting something below zero pence lol.

Either that or there are hundreds of unknown brokers giving ridiculously low targets and the only one we know for sure and has actually published their target is an optimistic outlier. Get real.

It depends what it says about post balance sheet events.

Https://www.jamaicaobserver.com/2024/07/12/long-search-oil-dare-begin-hope/

Agreed Rachel. I had to revise my estimates down a bit. Not that much because I'd already factored in a drop from Naira.

Nonetheless I got a rough estimate of £25M net profit for 2024, so I suggest we are undervalued by at least 50% right now.

I know what you're saying, but please don't use the term "dead cat". The company is still profitable. The issue is only that profitability has gone down. So that term is not at all appropriate for this stock.

This year's financials contains the hit from Naira (which was already reflected in the share price fall from 310p). Excluding Naira revenue has grown despite headwinds, so IMO once the financials have fully digested the Naira hit, we will return to year-on-year growth.

Canaccord Genuity cut their target price from 240 to 214.

You'll notice that 214 is still quite a lot higher than yesterday's close of 102.

It's also interesting to see someone I have had no interaction with in the past randomly turn up to mock. Why do people do that?

Indeed I did.

Unfortunately I don't get details of RNSs in advance. I wonder if that's true for everybody..... or are the recent large sellers just that lucky.......