Member Info for giantsquid

You get the feeling the entire world is f*cked right now. It's hard to see an end to it. Stocks are tumbling fast and with so much pessimissm about, it's impossible to know how much lower shares might go. The best place to be is on the sidelines in a good cash position, watching and waiting for the ideal time to take advantage. Right now, it just isn't safe to buy anything IMHO because there's no saying how much worse things might get on the markets in general.

Shaz, I'll leave you guys to it until results day or news of the appeal is released. Enjoy talking to yourselves in the meantime!

Somebody posted yesterday Carnival is 30bn in debt, is that true? The share price is getting absolutely hammered here.

"We went to bottom again and added more to take advantage"

That's another one that might not age well

Hussartbr "whatever the case, good to see the hard bounce off 22"

Lol I bet he wishes he could erase that one

Shaz, I won't be investing a penny until the outcome of the appeal is known. Not a penny. If they win, I'll probably take a position early on the morning of the RNS. If they lose, I won't be going anywhere near it.

"well done to all who bought in at 22"

Listening to rampers like Huss, Tegpop and Shaz is potentially more damaging to your investment money than listening to those who aren't afraid to post about the negatives and the risks.. A balanced view is what's needed here, not the rose tinted kind that brushes over the risks and downsides as if they don't exist and attacks anyone who dares mention them. I see big reasons to be positive here - but I also see considerable risk. Having a less rampy, more neutral, balanced viewpoint doesn't warrant being labelled a moron, Hussartbr.

Shaz, it was wrong to even consider buying Cineplex in the first place. Cineworld had massive debt at the time and to go on a spending spree was just wreckless. You can blame the pandemic til the cows come home, bottom line is that it was a bad strategic decision full stop. Even the shareholders on here weren't happy about it at the time, but mooky pressed on anyway. Ok he couldn't predict the pandemic, but he should have taken into account worst case scenarios and how that might affect the company.

It's only risky because mooky has made it so. Everyman is well run. Unlike cine, the management there haven't exposed the company to unnecessary risk, haven't burdened it with unnecessary debt.. As a consequence it's share price has largely held up. Cineworld's share price would be much higher too if the company hadn't tried to expand so quickly and by so much. Everyman is the better run company of the two.

How in god's name is Everyman not relevant? It's a cinema chain just like cine!

https://www.everymancinema.com/

You can knock Everyman, bonkers, but the fact is investors buying that a year or even 5 years ago, wouldn't be anywhere near as underwater as they are in Cineworld.

I would agree world events are amplifying the bearish sentiment atm further helping drive down the share price. That's why I'm out of stocks for the time being. The big winners will be those waiting on the sidelines in a good cash position ready to pounce when the time is right. There are bargains galore atm and prices are only going to continue going down for the foreseeable future. The mugs are the ones tied in having to watch their investments shrink on a daily basis. The smart ones sold out some time ago and aren't exposed to the daily falls. They're not making much interest on their cash isas but at least their money is safe from the current volatility. At some point the tide will turn and those on the sidelines in a good cash position will be perfectly poised to make some serious money.

Cineworld is down -75% in the last year. Cineplex is down just -25% and Everyman is down just -23%
So yes, the drop is definitely worse at Cineworld than it's peers. Everyman is down just 0.5% today.

The results will be good, can't see them being anything other than good. The issue is the legal wrangle with Cineplex, the falling share price suggests I'm right IMHO.

Frustrating but not unexpected, to those of us with a brain anyway.

If they lose the appeal, where is the £700m going to come from? The company already has massive debt. Lenders aren't going to lend three quarters of a billion pounds to pay off a fine. You can't pay off debt by taking on even more debt. The only way to raise that kind of money would be through a placing. And that means massive shareholder dilution which would send the share price into oblivion. £700m equates to around 3bn additional shares which equates to around 8p a share going by today's market cap. Of course the movie line up is great and cinemas are certainly booming back into life - there are reasons to be positive and optimistic, but a potential £700m fine when the company is already something like £5bn in debt is a big deal and it'll definitely be weighing heavily on the share price right now, hence why even big ticket movies like TopGun have done little for the share price.

The court case is all that matters right now. Top Gun has already proven the point big ticket movies aren't going to move the share price by very much and that any rise would soon be followed by a fall back to square one again. I expect Jurassic World to be no different. These movies are of course bringing a lot of people back into the cinemas so I would imagine the upcoming results will be very positive. We could see a bounce on results day, but again I don't think it'll hold nor be particularly spectacular. So we can talk about the movie line up, popcorn sales and how packed out the cinemas are til the cows come home, but the way I see it, none of it is going to have any substantial bearing on the share price while the legal dispute with Cineplex is going on. Right now, anything other than the appeal is largely an irrelevance as far as the share price is concerned.

I've never once "deramped this" cruis. My views have long been negative because of the debt situation and the devasting effect losing the appeal could have on the share price and the company's ability to continue as a going concern. It's okay to express negative views - this is a chat forum and not everyone sees things the same way. The issue is with people such as yourself who can't handle other people's opinions without getting childish about it. I've long been of the opinion cinema has a great future and provided the company emerges from the legal wrangle with Cineplex in a good position, there's every chance of seeing a good recovery here in time. I'm sorry if you see that as "deramping" - I see it as stating my honestly held opinions.

If the company survives the legal wrangle with Cineplex, the rise from the current price could be quite dramatic given the great line up of movies and punters returning to cinemas in their droves. If we had a crystal ball and knew for sure they'd win the appeal, we'd all be taking a position at the current price. Unfortunately we don't know which way it's going to go and the huge potential downside risk if they lose is going to continue putting a lot of big money investors off until we know the outcome. To buy in now would be to gamble with ones investment money. And the majority of seasoned, big money investors don't gamble. Win the appeal though and I wouldn't be surprised to see this back over £1 either later this year or early next.

Cineworld market cap = £328.29m

Cineplex market cap = £743.76m

What a crazy idea it was to even entertain the idea of buying Cineplex, especially considering how much debt the company had at the time. I'll keep my fingers crossed for you guys Cineworld emerge from this okay, but it doesn't look great imo