Member Info for GGPThruandtru

De Grey recently put out their first Hemi MRE too, weighing at over 6moz. Cannacord have been brokers for them for a while and this was released a little before their MRE. Also rated as a speculative buy with a target price not far over current. Production expected 2025.

https://degreymining.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/De-Grey-Mining-Ltd.-Canaccord-Genuity-Research-Report-June-02-2021.pdf

The issue with this discussion is that the “estimates” we have from the various brokers is pretty much the same. They’ve all mentioned an expected 10-12moz (which leads me to expect more) but it’s the value of these ounces that’s hard to gauge as there’s too many variables at the minute, hence the varied broker targets and valuations. They’re all using industry standard and averages to reach a share price. This is what we are waiting to find out more about and this is what will allow us to finally put some real value to each million ounces.

Kind of agree with most of what you say Zoros, but I think we’re able to say 4.2moz gold equivalent instead of the 3.4moz. At least give us that one (thumbs up emoji)

In my eyes the 65k was growth drilling and shouldn’t include the infills. But don’t have another figure myself. They’ll come when they come (fingers crossed emoji :-)

So is it only me that liked this part?

“The current 65,000m growth drilling program has intersected mineralisation in all of the holes drilled so far, and significant intercepts exist well below the current MRE.”

Does this mean “hits everywhere” tonight?

Did not know that Spy. Good heads up that one. They will still close your positions though so still be aware if there’s a massive drop, you’ll lose your position and cash even if you didn’t want to sell.

Not sure I’m happy with promoting spread betting to beginners using 212 or to any one else for that matter. If you do go down that route, make sure you read all the legalities and realise you could OWE THEM money if things go south...be aware!! At least by buying the shares themselves you can only lose what you put in.

Definitely Paddy. If we get lots and lots of protrusions we can move up to the extra large ker’plunk tube ;-)

It’s like playing ker’plunk...the lines of stick inside the plastic tube are the infills and the lines of stick protruding are part of the growth. We want our little Havieron to protrude as much as possible :-)

Haha, personally Bamps I didn’t think I was being optimistic at all, apart from maybe the “multi-asseted” Shaun Day part.

It was merely a statement that I believe we will have a lot more growth drilling than infill drilling this time; and that’s what excited me most. Havieron itself is sorted already with what we have. I am just hoping we get more hits than dusters with our “growth” drilling ;-)

Well it's that time of the year again where we wish away the days till the next Havieron Saga installment. It's been a while since Shaun "multi-asset" Day took over and he seems to be working away nicely in the background doing lots of stuff most of us know nothing about; and probably looking forward to telling us about the next installment himself.

I do feel this release will be a bit different from the ones we've been having for a while now. Newcrest pretty much stated in the last exploration report we are getting growth drilling (new areas). That gets me excited like the first few Newcrest drills at Havieron after they first took over the JV. They stated the infill is finished (we might get more of these now or they might wait and just shove them all in the PFS when it comes later)-

"Drilling in the current period was impacted by seasonal wet weather with up to eight drill rigs operational. Currently,
all drill rigs are operational on the growth drilling program with a focus on the North West Crescent, Northern
Breccia Zone and depth extension of the South East Crescent and Breccia. This drilling is aimed to provide
support for the potential expansion of the existing Inferred Mineral Resource estimate."

ALL EIGHT! - That's all 8 rigs working, since before the last report, on new areas!!

These assays (and probably the next set) could very well be defining as to how big this could be. We know the depth is there and we will get to that eventually; but I wonder if there maybe, just might be, more stuff all around it too? It's gonna be a very interesting Wednesday night. Here's to a bonanza grade or two and just the one or dusters - (fingers crossed emoji)

Good luck to us all...(to which Callum Baxter replies with a wink - "It's not luck, it's skill!"

T&T

"Me neither, iPhone calculator says “1.8e10”"

Turn the iPhone horizontally Merc ;-)

Will we have a Newcrest video of the presentation out tonight?

Loving how his smile get a bigger with every interview and to quote Shaun “multi-asset” Day and Sandeep “Big Cheese” Biswas - “every hole is a goal!!”

Continued...

We believe that the market is now anticipating a continuous stream of positive exploration results from Havieron but see significant upside as the resource is updated and the pre-feasibility study completed. Should the regional exploration programme across the Paterson discover another Havieron style project then we believe that this would be transformational for the shares.

End

Continued...

Catalyst rich – Stock offers numerous short-term catalysts as Havieron continues to be drilled and progressed further; to date, exploration results have been positive with the most recent set further suggesting that the resource has potential to grow. The main catalysts for the shares should be the results of the ongoing 65,000m drill programme that is planned for 2021 at the project and resultant updates to the resource. We expect a pre-feasibility study for Havieron in H2 2021 – this will be key as it will put some weight behind the numbers – followed by a feasibility study next year.
 
Entering the next phase – Mine development commenced in February with the box cut 90% complete and the surface works 85% complete. Mngmt expects development of the portal to start over the coming weeks; Newcrest is continuing to progress the approvals process with an objective of achieving commercial production within three years (aggressive but feasible given existing infrastructure and Newcrest’s track record in large-scale underground development). Another key element in the company’s transition to a developer, Shaun Day was appointed new CEO recently, taking over from Gervaise Heddle. His previous role as CFO of Northern Star Resources, where he oversaw the company’s market cap expansion from AUD700m to AUD8bn over five years, positions Mr Day well to lead Greatland into its next phase. We expect this new phase to merit a developer multiple rerate.

Building towards a multi asset company – Greatland holds 560km2 across the Paterson region; outside Havieron, projects include Juri (also JV with Newcrest), Scallywag, Rudall, and Canning (all 100% owned). The discovery of a second Havieron-style target would be transformational for the company. Beyond the Paterson, the company has a portfolio of wholly owned projects spanning across c1,160km2 with a mixture of gold and base metals (Ni, Zn, Pb, Cu). Greatland’s growth vision:

Juri JV: progress exploration programme at Juri which commenced in April 2021,

100% owned tenements: unlock value by systematically progressing through priority targets, and  

M&A: complement inorganic growth.

 
 

Copper exposure – c20% of Havieron revenue is estimated to be derived from Cu, providing diversification benefits.

 
 
Valuation:
 
Our price target of GBp26 is based on an EV/ounce of USD646/oz, assuming that Greatland ultimately retains a 30% interest in Havieron and 12Moz is ultimately delineated with a 50% risk weighting. While the stock receives pushback on its premium valuation, the average USD EV/oz value for the Australian mid-tier miners is now USD714/oz, following the rally in the gold price, which is a premium to the global peer group. This is typical for Australian gold miners with domestic assets because of low security and operating risk and tailwinds through weak currency (especially those with a major JV partner).

Small note sent from Berenberg...note the “multiple re-rate” - mentioned twice...Mr Shaun “multi-asset” Day is working for us and we just need to sit back and relax. Great note in my eyes and still conservative.

Revisiting the Buy case for Greatland Gold (GGP LN; market cap £818m)
 
Greatland is a gold and copper developer advancing its flagship Havieron deposit in the Paterson region of Western Australia in a JV with Newcrest (the largest Aussie gold miner). Havieron, and the surrounding region, remains one of the best exploration targets globally in terms of scale and is also located in a low-risk jurisdiction with a tier one partner. Greatland was one of the best performing shares in the market last year but has been trading down c40% ytd. Jonathan Guy recently upgraded the stock to a Buy as the sell-off in shares seem overdone given that positive drill results have continued to highlight the world-class potential of the asset. We think the pullback in the share price presents a good entry point with new leadership spearheading a multiple re-rate.
 
Here is why:
 

Strategic commitment from Newcrest – Havieron is set to replace Newcrest’s Telfer mine; it is located in close proximity (45km) to Telfer, where existing infrastructure can be leveraged to process Havieron ore under a toll-treating agreement. This will not only expedite the path to production and deliver optimised project economics, it addresses Newcrest’s production decline as Telfer nears the end of its life. The farm-in agreement with Newcrest should take Havieron through to feasibility study for a minimum of $65m in expenditure. Newcrest holds a 70% interest in the project with the option to grow this another 5%. Significantly, juniors that have a major JV partner, trade at a material premium to those that have attempted to self fund and self develop – Greatland’s decision to partner with Newcrest was the correct one.

A significant discovery – The Paterson is one of the most prospective provinces in Australia for the discovery of world class gold-copper deposits. It is fairly underexplored but has become an area of exploration focus with discoveries of Rio’s Winu project and Havieron (opened up by modern geophysical techniques). We expect Havieron to be developed as a large-scale underground operation with the deposit likely initially developed as a high-grade sub-level open-stoping operation (bringing CF forward) and that a block cave could be added later once the operation is fully developed. The potential here is substantial with an initial resource estimate of 52Mt @ 2.0g/t Au, 0.31% Cu for 3.4Moz Au, 160Kt Cu or 4.2Moz @ 2.5g/t AuEq. Havieron is possibly the best exploration asset out there ticking all the boxes with both grade and scale and in a tier-one mining jurisdiction; if of similar scale to Telfer, then we are looking at a 14Moz producer with c400koz of production annually over 36yrs. The resources remains open at depth.

Crazy reactions to simply a new broker being announced. I don’t get it. No mention of placing or anything and everyone jumps on the bandwagon. Last two new brokers did not lead to a placing. Everyone just relax and sit tight.

Great posts Dodge and Mr.Bronson (thumbs up emoji)

Not mediocre. Hole 86 was shear perfection for me :-)

“Drilling in the current period was impacted by seasonal wet weather with up to eight drill rigs operational. Currently, all drill rigs are operational on the growth drilling program with a focus on the North West Crescent, Northern Breccia Zone and depth extension of the South East Crescent and Breccia. This drilling is aimed to provide support for the potential expansion of the existing Inferred Mineral Resource estimate. Drill testing and interpretation of the geological and mineralisation controls of the Eastern Breccia Zone is ongoing. Further targets outside of Havieron, but within the joint venture area with Greatland Gold, have been identified with the potential to conduct drilling to test these targets in the future.“

I took this from the Newcrest release that all drill rigs are now doing growth and step out drilling. Makes me think the infill is done for now and they’re putting together the PFS.