RE: Food for thought4 Feb 2023 10:09
Nice forward thinking post Zoros. I like that kind of stuff and chances are it’s just as plausible as any other theories.
Daveri007 - I don’t see why you would automatically see this as a negative. Why do we care who has the other 70% as long as we keep our 30% or get paid handsomely for it?
I disagree with the Wyloo 9% thinking though. They’d merely have 9% of GGP and are along for the ride with that ownership, just like the rest of us. It doesn’t give them 9% of Havieron profits or ore. It merely gives them 9% of GGP and whatever GGP decide to do with those profits when we get to production. If GGP reinvest, we as holders go along for the ride, just like that Wyloo 9%.
However, I can’t see Newcrest leaving Oz altogether. They’re an Australian company and always have been, as well as Telfer being pretty much their origin story as a company. If they don’t leave Oz altogether, they will not be selling their stake and a working processing plant in Patersons elephant country, especially with all the finds and activity going on there at the minute.
If they do leave Oz, then everything will be sold in bulk, so we might not get to know a specific value, but a rough estimation of even £2bn would value our 30% at around £600m for a 9-10moz FS. We know there is frack loads more down there so a good starting point. Can’t imagine the Telfer plant itself being valued at much due to lack of Ore and the work required to get Havieron ore to Telfer.
We would end up with a new JV lead partner that we clearly get along with and a new bottom valuation of half a billion at least.
Either way, this unexpected journey still has a long way to go and I can see lots of twists and turns coming. The above scenario would definitely be very interesting :-)
All the best holders!
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