RE: 8 hours ..1 Nov 2022 07:00
Iofas
I’m afraid the answer is complex.
But there are three things to consider.
First, I agree that product progression will drive value. And obviously it will cost lots to see all Sclp products to full approval to achieve roll out and thus cash generation. And of course time. I.e how long would Sclp want to wait?
The second, and I actually think the most important, and something I think only very few people understand (not me for clarity), is how novel / valuable the products are. This of course is very, very subjective until point 1 above is proved. As a point for the record this is why I invested. It’s why I have brought consistently over many years. It’s why I’ve held. It’s why I have always seen Sclp as a longer term investment. It has been suggested to me that modi works and will prove itself. But we may now be seeing this proof. (It’s been why many on here have had Friday night fights).
The third point is the most complex. If the value of Sclp’s IP starts to be proven you must look at the company, the potential buyer and the shareholding. Take each one in turn. The company isn’t a biotech company wishing to take products through the clinic and commercialise them. It’s a research company. And it’s primarily based around LD. Whom has just retired from NU. I think the clue here is clear. Sclp will sell its IP if the price is right. Next the buyer. The buyer (they could be gearing up now and there may be several suitors) will have to take the products forward. And it will cost lots. But remember the products are novel and look very much like they are valuable and in all probability work very well. So their appetite will be very important. Finally we must understand owners. Redmile, vulpus and BOD will agree an ‘offer’ and in all probability us PIs will take what’s offered as it’s likely to be very attractive. Why because BOD will want out IMO (RG has already said bye) and LD isn’t going to sell Modi fully working to NHS and the rest of the world in ten years time!
So, I said it was complex, but for what it’s worth multiple of current SP to be ‘attractive’ and it may be quicker than some think / believe. 10/ 20/30 times current SP. Everyone will have a different view of course. But a better question is what would you accept?
Now. Happy to be ‘shot’ at!
ATB.
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