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"best blogger is someone who is sometimes bullish and sometimes bearish and gives evidence or at least their rationale.

a consistently pessimistic or consistently optimistic blogger will be 100% right half the time. that is the nature of the market."

I think you make a very good point there.

Fair point.

However I do my own research - following on often from comments and info (on the GROW company and its constituent companies here). What happened is that the sp was just about rock bottom (and I had lost loads over time on this). I did listen to some (to me) quite credible comments on here about there could be more to fall in the current dismal macro-economic climate - and thought, 'for now I want to be out of this'.

I don't regret selling. I may put some of the money raised into 1-year bonds at 6.2% interest... and the rest I may invest again in shares - and (again) possibly, if the moment feels right to me, in GROW - whose potential under the right political-economic conditions I do not doubt.

I should of course have edited out/cut those last three lines of my piece!

Pressed the Post Message button too soon...

I do realise there are periods pf volatility etc. - especially due to various macro-economic concerns.

As recently the sp has been going to new lows (and I have lost loads on the particular share over time), I lost confidence in it and sold (again).

There are voices of optimism (eg Steph and DaddyAIM) on here - and then voices of doom and grim realism (eg You_Having_a.Laugh).

Now it happens that Y-H-a-L was right when they warned over a long period (when the sp was much higher) that it was going to fall a good deal - though the more positive on here always cavilled at this, saying the sp was still much under-valued (even then) related to NAV. They certainly weren't right then about this then (though they may prove to be right - eventually - in the long term...)

Now when Y_H-a-L warns again now that the sp may still have further to fall, I listen (they were right over a long period in the past, as I say).

With the GROW sp at a low - and world factors (wars, inflation, interest rates) setting alarm bells - I decided to cut my losses and go (yesterday - as I say not good timing!). I was of course more than surprised that then the sp went up nearly 8% today!

The US shares I now hold - in cybersecurity (CRWD and ZS) - are doing well fortunately - and SMCI (Super Micro Computer - though much more volatile than these two - shows amazing momentum and staying power. These are companies whose fundamentals and promise I believe in.

The thing is I can always return to own GROW shares again - I'll see how it all goes.

I will see how things go with GROW over the

Now when Y_H-a-L says that the sp may still have further to fall, I listen (because their early assessments did prove correct).

Meant to write:

I may come back at some time...

I sold my GROW shares yesterday.

Not good timing!!

Some of the extremely negative comments on here - and recent persistent sp falls - got to me...

I may come back in at some...

Fortunately the US shares I have have been doing fairly well recently (hopefully that will continue...)

Wonder if this news is why MV sp has suddenly shot up?

This was reporting of MV (and other's funding of Satellite Vu) in May:

https://news.sky.com/story/climate-tech-specialist-satellite-vu-secures-13m-funding-boost-12887544

Https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidprosser/2023/08/25/five-uk-companies-set-to-make-a-huge-splash-in-artificial-intelligence/?sh=2968cf905d2a

This fairly recent Forbes article rates Graphcore very highly - is it simply mistaken, hyperbolic, or on track?!

I have found it illuminating - and heartening - recently to learn quite a lot more (and read on here - through various links etc.) about the GROW portfolio AI exposure.

I would put myself very much in the first category.

However, I admit I do sometimes get swayed by market volatility and sudden extreme falls in the market and sp.

I am re-invested now in GROW, and several American shares, including my favourite SMCI (Super Micro Computer), a company that works closely with NVIDIA, has accelerating revenues and is at the forefront of the growing information and AI economy.

This article today is most illuminating:

https://wallstreetwaves.com/bullish-outlook-for-super-micro-computer-smci/

So am planning to stay with GROW and SMCI for long term appreciation.

I founds this also interesting... (from

https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/how-do-rising-interest-rates-affect-the-stock-market.html )

"A cloudy outlook

While the Fed held its line on interest rates at its September 2023 meeting, it left the door open for at least one more rate hike in 2023. More important, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that rates will remain elevated for a period of time. According to Powell, “it would not be appropriate to cut rates and we won’t cut rates,” at least for now.

“The Fed is very focused on achieving its long-term inflation target of 2% (inflation stood at 3.7% for the 12-month period ending in August),” says Freedman. “The Fed’s desire to achieve greater price stability may come at a cost to parts of the economy, but it’s a cost the Fed appears willing to endure.”

It should be noted that a changing interest rate environment, while creating more headwinds for stocks, doesn’t eliminate potential upside opportunity. “The key is how well companies perform,” says Haworth. “One of the variables we’re watching is whether the declining inflation rate results in stock valuations appearing more reasonable.” Haworth notes that a return to lower inflation would generally benefit stocks.

Nevertheless, stocks may still be subject to near-term volatility. “To bid stock prices higher, investors need to believe that earnings will grow faster than is indicated by current expectations and generate more attractive growth potential than the current elevated yields on fixed income instruments.”

Have been reading a bit around the subject of what happens to share prices when interest rates fall.

Here is part of one article:

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock-market/

"What Happens When Interest Rates Fall?

When the economy is slowing, the Federal Reserve cuts the federal funds rate to stimulate financial activity. A decrease in interest rates by the Federal Reserve has the opposite effect of a rate hike. Investors and economists alike view lower interest rates as catalysts for growth—a benefit to personal and corporate borrowing. This, in turn, leads to greater profits and a robust economy.

Consumers will spend more, with the lower interest rates making them feel that, perhaps, they can finally afford to buy that new house or send their kids to a private school. Businesses will enjoy the ability to finance operations, acquisitions, and expansions at a cheaper rate, thereby increasing their future earnings potential. This, in turn, leads to higher stock prices.

Particular winners of lower federal funds rates are dividend-paying sectors, such as utilities and real estate investment trusts (REITs). Additionally, large companies with stable cash flows and strong balance sheets benefit from cheaper debt financing."

I do think You-Having-a-Laugh did warn us some time ago that in the current concerning macro-economic climate of rising inflation and interest rates that the MV sp would probably plummet - and that then the sp (then in the 400s, 300s and late 200s I think) would not remain so high for long. They did prove right on this.

I sold all my stocks yesterday - as they plummeted - some very good companies (such as Super Micro Computer Inc. - who work closely with Nvidia, Cloudflare - cybersecurity - and GROW). SMCI sp had grown by 25% since I invested recently - and fell over 7% yesterday. GROW had fallen a fair amount recently. CRWD was up about 5%. All in all I made a modest profit (for a good deal of time and effort) - and felt better to get out now before I might starting making a loss.

It's been good- and heartening - to read on here about the successful companies that are part of the GROW portfolio. Also I am very impressed by the track record as well as undoubted potential of SMCI. CRWD is a company with good fundamentals. I would like to keep investing in such good companies - these three in particular - and am only hesitating to re-invest because of concerns about the stock market and the very uncertain and volatile macro-economic climate.

They say, 'you can't time the market' - which is true - and maybe I should take the investing plunge again soon (on a fairly modest scale).

Re. JNK... presume this is it:

high yield fixed income securities, otherwise known as “junk bonds”

JNK? Sorry but what does that mean...

Https://growthbusiness.co.uk/thought-machine-ponders-ipo-as-vcs-advise-against-listing-2570171/

W12Ken, thank you for posting that link. It helped make real for me what GROW is currently about, and where it is heading.

This Summary page is well worth reading. It begins: "At Molten’s 2023 Investor Day, we brought together some of the best and brightest of our portfolio to showcase their growth journeys. In his introductory remarks, our CEO Martin Davis gave an update on Molten’s performance, the state of play in the market and a reminder of how Molten invests."

https://www.moltenventures.com/insights/investor-day-2023-a-summary

Thank you Steph.

Like you, I cannot believe that GROW is at its lowest sp in 9 years!

I do have trust in the company, and its stances and approaches. I don't know when it will start to improve. Macro-economic climate must surely shift somewhat for the better before it does. Just as fast as sp went down, it can go up...

I should add that I did sell my SentinelOne shares in the $30s and 40s. So made some profit on those.

I recently rebought some of their shares at around $14.

Thanks for your interesting reply, Alas_Smith.

I will probably again buy some GOOG and MSFT shares. (I did hold some of both of these until fairly recently.)

I lost a fair amount in last two years on various shares, including GROW. That is why my 'investment strategy' (such as it is) is to put most of my cash into guaranteed interest bonds. In some I'm getting 5.8% (plus compounded interest) over 5 years. Now if inflation and interest rates were to fall over that period, that would be a bonus.

I have set aside some cash to buy shares. As I say I now have some GROW, SMCI, CRWD, SentinelOne - and probably soon MSFT and GOOG. I am OK taking a risk with these, and hopefully there will be high returns over time.

As an example of my dealings last year (and in 2021), I did buy some shares in US cybersecurity company SentinelOne. I bought in 20s - the shares went up to 70 - then plummeted quickly. I still did manage to sell these at some profit (as sp went down).

I also bought quite a lot of Upstart Holdings (the AI finance company - which was then very much flavour of the month amongst analysts). That was quite a rollercoaster. These went up from 20s to 400 (!!), and then ultimately back down to 11 - then up to 70 - and now they are about 26!!- all in a relatively short period. The macro-economic climate and increasing interest rates ruined the value of this high-flying stock. Of course if I had sold most in the 300s, I would have done very well indeed. But who can time the market? (I certainly can't.) The sp plummeted extremely quickly. I did sell some between 100 and 250 - but not enough. So made quite a big loss there.

But I have (hopefully) learned from this experience. I know what kind of degree of risk I am willing to take now investing in shares. And fortunately I can get some fair guaranteed returns on the rest of my money. I for one could not put all or most of it into shares - even if more mainstream, supposedly less risky ones - I realise I don't have the nerve for that (especially after my experience in shares over past two years or so). I am not young enough to take a very long-term view! But I am willing to take some risk with a few shares, as I say, such as some GROW. And (possible recessions notwithstanding) they may do well.