RE: An extra 12 cases today1 Mar 2020 21:12
Ponfeigh
It’s an unfortunate fact that when the virus was developing in northern Italy, that numerous school trips were in the worse hit areas, if you had 10 school trips with say 50 children and 5 teachers per trip that’s a total of 550 people coming back into the country, who then were free to go about their normal lives upon their return.
Now if only 10% of those 550 people had been infected that’s 55 people, and it is calculated that every infected person will on average infect a further 2 - 3 people, so we could easily be looking at a further 100 - 150 people, who then themselves could infect another 2-3 people each, so, as you can see it’s more than likely that the numbers we have seen so far are the tip of the iceberg.
And, they don’t yet know the true incubation period, they presumed 2 weeks but it could be a lot longer.
Of course we are lucky in this country that our health service is advanced, and therefore our death rate is liable to be a much lower percentage than in China or Iran, but nonetheless things are going to get a lot worse before they start to improve.