Member Info for get_rich_quick

Apologies, Oil,

I didn't copy the whole of your message into my response;

"I bought at 180 and have no money left to average down.

As for this being a long term investment, I know that"

So, forgive me, you bought into IAG after years of decline but you still knew it was a long term investment?

I'd be curious to know what your rationale was on why you believed IAG would grow beyond your £1.80 buy in price?

ATB.

Oilz

"But IAG has been sinking now since 2018"

Then it begs the question why you bought in at the time that you did, as you would have bought a couple of years after its decline.

We are all accountable for our choices (and investing mistakes).

ATB.

Sundance (cool name by the way - obvs the Sundance kid)

Travel stocks will have a fight back, but this is an industry treading a fine line.

We need consistent quarterly updates with consecutive financials showing how we are growing.

I only invested here as I thought IAG would outlast the competition. They will stand the test of time and continue on, and their last update suggested that.

I imagine you will comfortably reach your average target. I obviously can't base that on anything but our profit earnings is low, when compared to our revenue is balanced incorrectly, so if we keep it up, a correction will occur.

It's easy for me to say; but at your average SP I think you'll be fine.

Good luck pal.

Oil,

I'm more exposed here than what my life lessons taught me not to do, and I made a mistake buying too many but I did so to average down as I first bought in at £2.

Due to my attempts to average down, I'm almost at break even. That said; I feel your pain if you're sitting at a higher average and that is something I nor anyone can change - not that you asked that of anyone.

Many investors get caught out and buy when climatic changes are about to occur and then the share price plunges, but that doesn't mean from our current levels that people like me aren't happy with being at break even or in profit.

I've got quite a few grand tied up in here, and I'm a dogs whisker away from break even again.

Assuming we keep receiving healthy quarterly updates regards our finances, I know I'll make money from this point in onward.

So for me, I can't complain too much. If anyone was buying into the travel sector when travel industry was slowly opening back up (such as you and I did) we really can't complain too much with it's recovery.

It's been the hardest affected and the slowest to try and recover. Surely most folk knew it's a long term investment.

GRQ.

Lloyds,

That was wonderfully put.

The secret is to not be swayed by any reports bias, but to be able to extract the underling info they may hold.

There is truth in every trash. Even the Daily Mail...

Ha ha. Fair enough, Jtan!

I know they've been very harsh toward IAG, but it is nice to see that one sided harshness swing in a different direction?

Love them or loathe them, even they can see the possible growth benefit of IAG.

Have a pleasant Sunday all.

The Motley Fool still isn't going to buy any IAG shares but his tune is massively changing towards the company outlook;

"The International Consolidated Airlines (LSE: IAG) share price is flying right now.

The FTSE 100 stock remains around a fifth cheaper than it was a year ago. But it’s jumped 33% since the release of third-quarter financials in mid-October."

"The British Airways owner hasn’t paid a dividend since the Covid-19 crisis exploded. But City analysts are expecting it to grow shareholder payouts rapidly over the next couple of years.

Is now the time for me to buy IAG shares to boost my passive income?

Robust dividend forecasts
First off, it’s important to note that dividend yields are pretty small right now. For 2022 and 2023, these sit at just 0.1% and 0.7%.

Still, the rate at which dividends are expected to grow has really caught my eye. As a long-term income investor I’m tantalised by the prospect of strong dividend growth lasting beyond next year.

IAG is expected to get the ball rolling again with a payout of 23 euro cents per share in 2022. The dividend is then expected to balloon to 1.16 cents in 2023.

It seems there’s a great chance of the business hitting these expected dividends, too. They are covered 13.6 times over by predicted earnings this year and 18.3 times for 2023.

Bouncing back
Such predictions of breakneck dividend growth reflect City forecasts of explosive earnings growth over the next two years. Current consensus suggests IAG’s bottom line will jump 276% between 2022 and 2023"

"Third-quarter financials last month showed how strongly the firm is rebounding from the Covid-19 peak period. Revenues rose to €7.3bn in the quarter, up 0.9% from 2019 levels. Performance was particularly impressive, given ongoing disruption at Heathrow Airport and pandemic-related shutdowns in Asia.

The business also swung to an operating profit of €1.2bn for the July to September period. It recorded a loss of €452m a year earlier.

To buy or not to buy
It’s fair to say that things are going pretty well at IAG. And profits could continue soaring in the post-pandemic environment.

The budget airline sector is tipped to lead the rebound in the civil aviation market over the next decade. IAG has exposure here through its Vueling and Aer Lingus brands. The company also has excellent structural opportunities as passenger numbers grow across the globe.

That said, I still believe the FTSE 100 firm still carries too much risk for investors like me. Ticket sales could slump again as runaway inflation puts consumer spending under pressure. Spending on big-ticket items like holidays is one of the first things to fall when times get tough. The ongoing presence of Covid-19 in Asia provides a constant threat too, of course."

https://travelradar.aero/britishairways-quarter3-profit/

IParsnip,

I've got £12k in here and my average is dead on £2.

I'm hoping we all get back to our averages, and make some money, but we need that financial measuring stick to know where we are going.

Hopefully next months results show us they're profit making and this quarterly results are the beginning of things to come.

All the best.

GRQ.

Reppyrr,

I'm not one for crystal ball predictions, as I've tried that many times and I often get it wrong.

Your average Sp certainly isn't an unattainable one, and things do appear to be showing an element of momentum at present.

That's part because the Sp below £1 was just ridiculous, so our uplift has been partly due to that quick correction - especially in light of the revenue figures.

What I'll say is; you may need to wait for the next quarterly figures (and may be the ones after that) for your average to come, but if passengers stay strong and we keep reducing costs then it has to be achievable.

The sheer revenue alone (and paying off debts) wont allow the market makers to hold this Sp in the current levels.

Sure, some think any recession or inflation in costs will limit holiday makers abroad but in my worthless opinion, a lot of folk always make room for a holiday - even during the leanest of times.

And, COVID / lockdown has taught us one valuable thing; and that is how precious life is and it shouldn't be constrained by being locked in our homes.

You'll break even and go beyond. All the best.

GRQ.

Well, I'm £303 up on my £16,793 investment....

I'm definitely not selling at this lowly level.

Yeehaaaaaaaaa.

Profit has finally befallen on me!

I'm now 'up'.

I just want to thank my parents. My accountant. My friends. This board and not forgetting my big brass balls for digging in and averaging down....

Merry Christmas everyone.

SirLain,

I remember (many moons ago) being £45k down with an oil company called LGO.

For me, that involved sleepless nights etc.

The company was in bad shape and dying, but at the time, it had a certain element of revival ability, so I (may be naively) over doubled my 'investment' to heavily average down, in an attempt to dig myself out.

The tactic worked, but I was around £100k deep and I was in over my head.

I'm trying to understand the moral here, but I guess it's we are all human. We all live. Love. Make mistakes.

Unlike LGO, I believe IAG has a long life expectancy. I've averaged down because I foresee this company capitalising but that's my opinion.

Whatever befolds you, I wish you well.

It burns my soul to think (and I do question if it's true) that people come on here to solely ruin others.

What a soulless life we live in if that's true.

Apologies, SirLain,

I am aware that there are some others who may have a higher Sp, and I hope my comments haven't offended anyone.

I'm sure we've all been in similar situations where you can feel your investments are always down, but when then recover, we get a little too excited.

1.71% down!

Come on you little beauty!

Woo hoo!

Only 3% down!.

I appreciate that may not sound like a brag but it is.

I got slightly caught with buying from the £2 mark, but then kept buying on the way down, hoping for it to stop, and now I feel like that 'risk' of doing so is turning back in my favour.

It's a risky scenario where we average down, but I always believed it to be a calculated risk, knowing the strength of the company and its plans for growth.

Here's to me!

You have 250k shares in IAG?!

Flipping eck. That makes my poultry 17k shares look miniscule.

I have no idea what your average SP is but you must have coughed up over £300k (unless you bought 250k shares at £1 then obvs that makes it £250k worth.

No matter what; I tip my hat to you.

For a relative new investor, such as myself, I have a 65p average, which means the upside value of the Sp combined with the regular dvidend, offers a double whammy.

"We're the first to admit we weren't expecting a third quarter upgrade from British Airways owner, IAG, just yet. Especially in the current climate. But it seems that pent up travel demand is currently trumping cost-of-living pressures.

Capacity's climbing towards normal levels too. IAG's recovery looks like it could be primed and ready for take-off.

If the group can squeeze more euros out of each additional passenger, the speed of recovery will be that much faster. That is a status quo we expect the group to be able to get back to, courtesy of its enormous cost saving and streamlining efforts over the last few years.

That said, for now, costs are soaring because of the rate at which it's ramping up capacity. We are cautiously optimistic that planes are now full enough per-trip that profits can find a sustainable path forwards.

Some of the short haul carriers have had to lower ticket prices to entice passengers, a trend that could materialise for long haulers as well. Stoking demand is important over the next year and price is one of the few levers IAG has to pull.

IAG's long haul recovery continues to lag that of shorter trips in Spain and beyond, with continued restrictions in large parts of Asia not helping the matter. On the upside, the lifting of passenger caps at Heathrow comes as some relief.

There's still a long journey ahead. And a very real risk that consumer behaviour is yet to fully adjust to a world of higher inflation and increased costs. If spending starts to rein in, we could see the strong forward order book come under pressure.

Our biggest concern for now is the group's eye-watering debt pile, which cost north of £400m in interest in the first half. The return of positive free cash flow helps, but shareholder distributions will take a backseat to debt management for a long time to come.

For now, it seems the worst is over for IAG and the current risks to demand look more like turbulence than a full stop. There's an opportunity for shares to rerate if more passengers come roaring back. But until we have hardened proof of full planes and a full schedule, there's an element of caution alongside our optimism."

"Capacity in the first quarter of 2023 is expected to be approximately 95% of 2019."