Member Info for Gerry557

"Barclays and JP Morgan like the deal -"

Do they? Where does it say that.

The next question is what will happen to the MKC shares. We won't know what value they will be by then. Still I don't want to hold them. US shares have a withholding tax although it sounds like there will be euro shares.

I suspect many won't want them so plan to sell. Add that to the 10% ulvr want to sell, its a big overhang on the MKC shares. It might be better to sell now probably why ulvr has been hit.

I don't think ulvr shareholders will get any cash. I suspect it will be like the ice cream. Shares in MKC and then a share consolidation in ulvr.

We are being told the same story, by splitting it will unlock value. Having sold ulvr pre the ice-cream deal as I had holdings with several brokers and the complications that would entail rather than being totally against the split. Unfortunately we haven't had time to see the results. Currently they are poor but how much of that is down to the Gulf situation.

MKC dropped again yesterday. This trend helps their shareholders but makes the deal worse for us. (I repurchased a batch after the deal.) It still has a long time to go so it might pressure the board a bit.

My swap tracker showed Im over 15% better off selling and buying other things including the batch of ulvr which is dragging by over 11%. Even cash would have been better.

Still when does the deal start to look like a buy for ulvr shares.

With a risk off day and shares rising quite a lot, its telling that this is still falling. I wonder what will happen when US markets open and MKC.

Unilever said that there wouldn't be major M&A but there could be bolt ons

EV

Debt is only being reduced to the same leverage as it is now. You are also being given shares in MKC which has fallen 10% since the deal was agreed. Those same shares have fallen 40% in a year. Unilever will also be keeping a lump so its not looking that defensive either.

Probably why Unilever dropped today too. The market doesn't seem to think either side is a winner here as both dropped.

You will have to buy MKC shares to vote it down. There won't be a vote on the ULVR side

"A compelling value proposition for Unilever shareholders" except no one has told the shareholders. Down over 7% as we type.

Having sold to avoid multiple ice cream holdings and then buying a slug back post the deal its looking like Im getting some American food shares now instead.

Clicking on my swap tracker, its showing over 12% up by selling up and buying other things. Everything went up apart from the slug of Unilever that I bought back which is down over 10 percent.

Is this a buying opportunity or another swap and avoid situation.

Well I was hoping for a free divi after buying the dip. The hope being it would rise back up before ex divi in 3 weeks time therefore staying above the buy rate.

Batch 1 needs more work and batch 2 is hitting target. Still we are in Stingray times and anything could happen in the next half hour.

Well the price dipped below my limit order but it wasn't taken. Im not sure why. The Broker was Interactive Investor. I suppose I can keep a look out tomorrow morning and see if we can luck back in. It was pure luck that I noticed it had dropped 8% in the first place. Again Im not sure what caused that dip but I assumed with gilts on the rise these would tend lower.

It going to be watching a pot boil now

I thought I would put a limit order in but the computer said No!. I need to sign up for complex instruments. Im not sure why or what has changed.

Anyway Limit order is now in as I will be out. Fingers crossed

Just noticed a dip in these but was too slow to take part

I initially missed the update on 27th so its just the presentation on Tuesday 31st. Pitty the main man is retiring.

Hopefully I will come away with a better understanding post the presentation.

Nervous

The dividend pot size is declared in the results and therefor is transparent, so you can compare sizes if you feel the need. Im not sure what that would actually tell you that would be meaningful.

It will be less due to the buybacks but increase a tad off those lows or less so due to the 2% increase in divi amount paid.

So I would expect to see the total cash amount paid towards the dividend allocation falling over the next few years even though the dividend is rising by 2%.

Less outgoings means a stronger company, better dividend cover etc. Yes the board might have incentives involved but I haven't checked specifically. It's probably a good question to ask and ideally the incentives should be adjusted to discount buybacks to prevent misuse.

Ratboy, if you want more cash selling is an option. Paying out a dividend is like selling a small batch anyway. Technically the SP falls by the same amount as the divi.

Hi Birdsong.

I don't think you need to wait 10 years to see a gain from buybacks. There is already a gain from the savings on the next dividend. Still if they can't find better investment opportunities, the buyback can underpin the business. It looks like a 50/50 split between cash and buyback.

Im not sure I understand what you mean about SP and wipeout.

Dividends can be cut or cancelled anytime and so can a buyback. I would be ok with that if they could generate a better return.

Still I have said the same things myself about preferring dividends but its not like they are small. If you reinvest you will pay stamp and fees and possibly tax on the payment. This way you get more of the company without those issues. It's personal circumstances obviously but many perfer a buyback.

The size of the buyback against market cap is also significant. Let's hope its done whilst undervalued

Most of the market is down after current world events so I am less worried about the drop. If it was just this I would be more worried. It could be seen as a buying opportunity.

its also clouded by the potential deal with Picton

They said that x3 large tenant breaks have been the cause of the issue. Is there any colour who or where those were? Still having "promised" a 10p divi, they decided to still pay it. Now though they are being prudent in making it 8p going forward. Im not sure they are selling at fires sale prices.

I can see what they are trying to do and how improved properties can obtain a premium but there are trying to manage many spinning plates. the smaller divi should allow more cap ex to upgrade. The sales are also progressing and some only have 20% occupancy. So it might be another year or two before things can start to improve and we dont know how current world events might evolve. 10 year gilts are over 5% which isnt great for rolling over debt.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel

The buyback is over a longer timescale than a dividend. If they paid a 30% dividend the SP would also fall by the same amount. Normally I tend to want the dividend so I can choose what and when to buy as the Board often make poor investors. The other question I ask myself is would I be buying the shares with my own money. As the answer was yes then the buyback isn't a problem. Obviously the SP will fluctuate over time meaning it might not get the dips but more of an average. I suppose the Board think in time the price will be worth it.

There is no tax issues with a buyback but not an issue in an isa. It's far too early to see the effects of the buyback. The last update was 7.2m bought, how much will that save in dividend payouts over the next few years.

It could look just as messy post dividend. The more people worry and hold off the quicker and closer to the bottom and probably the best, if scariest time to buy.

The current situation might get worse but it might also become the norm, like Ukraine is.