Member Info for Gerry557

I think it was pumped up on the expectation that it was going to do "even better" and that another "Special Dividend" would be announced. Plus the markets were on a rising trend. Reality is now filtering through, results were generally positive but not as good and the froth is being removed. If that can be tied in with some general bad news to drag the markets down it might create a buying opportunity. What that level will be remains to be seen. Its still only yielding 4.2% but was much higher. If the yield starts to rise income seekers will start to support the price. After all it is a good company that is doing well and the current yield is not that bad.

Wot no sacking of board members RNS?

So they have some new funding, which that previously stated that they didnt need or want. The suspension might be lifted in due course. Well its taken a while already. I suppose this means there will be a rights issue and the price will fall accordingly. Anyone want to start a sweep stake for the new price?

I also took it as "doing well" after 2 days of large rises and then a fall in gold that the share price remained overall "level" although it had been down during the day. As for houses, it appears to have increased demand for more low cost debt to buy houses rather than supply houses to meet demand. Haven't we been here before? Might help the sale of the bank though!

Not much really said in the latest update but you might be able to read something into a slight change in tone of the wording. But wait changes are afoot, well possibly. A new board? different Ideas oh and we are still trying to sue Apple & Microsoft. Well something is better than nothing!

I did wonder about the same strategy of holding longer term. I havent really looked at a projection of the share price to the gold price. ie what would AGB be valued at say 1400 or 1500 gold prices?. A higher gold price increases profit but what is the ratio. Of course any bid or rumor of a bid may push the price up higher than that in expectation.

I think its just the "normal" trading range +/- 5% ....... in fact it a quiet day........... so far!

After the the last couple of days rises, I have taken profits. Based on balance of risk. I thought it was low with limited downside and a large divi (that was cut). Now the chances of a downside from here is higher. I might be too early and there may be many factors that come in to play to raise the price even more such as a bid, increase in gold price or just better fundamentals in the company. I had not really planned to be in here but had watched its fall from grace. I will still keep a watchful eye...... just in case. At least things are looking more positive. Good luck to those still riding the roller-coaster hope you enjoy the views from the top.

"Certainly the markets look very nervy of QE going,I think that might torpedo this bull market if they do that." There was a wobble earlier or was the term "minor correction" on the thought of a reduced QE. Tapering should be good as things are getting better ie real strength as opposed to being artificially supported. That might take time to feed through and might be an opportunity to bag some bargains as the market tends to overreact. Devaluing "cash" is forcing money into the market or to reduce debt or both. Hopefully this will lead to stronger foundations and give others time to de-leverage. As for ABG I have seen arguments for gold bull/bear cases. I think things will improve in time but once things look rosy it will be too late to get in here. That's not to say there wont be more hurt in the short term.

Anyone know why the SP has fallen? Is there some bad news or is it a lack of support from the stopped buyback?

Apparently half the country is on the brink should interest rates rise and there are a high number of zombie companies who can only continue with low interest rates. So whilst these continue to benefit it is at the expense of those that saved. Cash is loosing out to inflation. I think they are hoping we all pay off our debts or things improve before they raise rates. Pity the poor pensioners relying on cash savings and did the "right thing" Im not sure if this is right or not the other option must have been a very bad scenario to do this. Im not sure I like managed markets and I suppose it will take time to unwind a lot of past history. Wots wrong with ABG its starting to become a "steady share" wot no 5% move. Off to look at more racy stocks like ULVR!

Whilst the market might drag them all down, it can only do so by so much. Eventually things start to look cheap even for riskier stocks. The outlook is uncertain and the gold price, which affects this is also jumping about. Either the company changes to the new model or it dies. ABG is changing, hopefully fast enough. Some mines that are now not competitive will close until price/cost or extreme demand returns. If gold were to move back up some of the big recent write downs will than start to add value. It is a waiting game. Some will die in the process, others will have to burn up cash whilst they evolve. Of course things could get a lot worse before they get better. Debt is quite funny really. You would think you would be better off without it but it can be used to offset profits etc so reduces tax. Its all a big fudge but there are so many holes in the system it pays (rightly or wrongly) to have it and pay big bucks to accountants. Personally I would prefer them to remove the temptation, have no debt even if the company pays a bit more tax as when thing go wrong it a lot easier to manage if you have a cash pile. I suppose its like being made redundant when you still have loads of payments on the mortgage,car,holiday, sofa and payday loans. Life is so much simpler without it all. You still might not have a lot coming in but then its not hemorrhaging out either.

Opium, I dont know whats best either, just a gut feeling that some chase the divi and then sell again forcing the SP higher in the run up. I wonder if the price also rises on divi reinvestment day?. Hopefully your timing worked out ok but I think its the longer term story that matters. Buy on the dips!

mogo, you seem to have summed up a good case to invest. If you want to buy low sell high, well I wouldn't call this a high! Contrarian definitely. With regard to inflation whilst the headline numbers are lower than yesteryear I think it is relatively high and higher than most people imagine. Maybe its time to go and get a massive mortgage and watch it inflate away! As long as they keep cutting costs, reducing spending this should pick up again in time. If the management think the price is at a discount they could consider share buy backs to drive the fundamentals. Of course sentiment is also a driver, and gold price so I expect to see this in the biggest faller/riser charts for some time. Lots of investors have suffered to get to this point so will be out but it could offer a chance to avg down for those that remain. This has many positives, it just has to ride out the storm. In 5 years time we might look back at missed opportunities and wonder why we didnt invest at the time. Remember the FTSE in 2008. If only hindsight was foresight. What is the best price? I dont really know or where the bottom will be. If your well diversified keep an eye on this or other similar companies............ but I'm not betting the house on it either!

I tend to agree with most of what you have said. I think its trading at a premium due to income seekers chasing yield on poor cash returns. From memory the divi due is approx 1.5p and this has priced in more like 6. If it performs as expected it might command a premium for a while until things normalise or the market takes a turn. You might pay a higher share price later but it might be better value!

Was expecting a bit worse really with the slowdown in the east. The SP has fallen/risen doesn't know what to do. Divi increased by 6% but Core Tier 1 capital ratio is falling.

In reply to my own original question. The matter is now closed, after inquiring which of the two was finally purchased the answer was neither!. It was more of a dinner conversation. Thanks anyway

I like the blue gold idea and we probably need it more than real gold. Its been the cause of the odd war or two in its time. Its ex div soon so I wondered if it would be cheaper to top up afterwards as income seekers chase the divi.

Well I bought this to be slow and steady, so I'm glad that is working out. I know most people like to see big immediate gains but I'm using this to off set some more racy type stocks. Gold miners are up and down like a roller coaster right now and with gold down yesterday I suspect I will be shouting weeeeee! today as we ride back down. The market is not looking as cheap and I doubt that this will fall too much should the market take a turn for the worst. Only time will tell with this one, so that's what I'm going to give it. Any dips might be good opportunities to top up.

I was surprised that the share price hadn't moved up like UKW. Proving that they progress as expected this should be a nice steady income share with some capital gains with not a lot of downward side as it is underpinned by subsidised income payments for its energy. Maybe its not been found out yet. I've had a few so I suppose I have to rate it a buy, well for me anyway. As always DYOR. I will wait until Mar 14 for a new Divi and some inflationary on top!