Sat on the sidelines5 Dec 2013 09:52
Been sat on the sidelines reading the posts over the last couple of days. I was thinking about the share price falling, quite a lot from here at just over a quid. What are the chances? I think 79p was mentioned.
Well that about a 25% fall. looking at recent history there have been two recent large falls in Feb and Nov. The first on profit warning and divi cut and the second on Profit and accounting.
I always consider a market correction of some 30%. I don't know when this will happen (it would be great if I could) of what will trigger the event (war, financial crisis et al) They tend to be unexpected, swift but do recover, so often are great buying opportunity's (Buffets blood on the streets)
Now RSA cut the divi so they could reinvest into growth areas and increase the cover but it looking like they have gone back to square one on that somewhat. So will the divi be cut again? What will that do to the share price? Add to this some tapering fears and extra bad weather events, I can see a scenario that would take it down to these levels, maybe even lower. You don't have to believe in global warming but can see the weather extremes on the news regularly
Im fairly new here have bought after the second drop hoping it was oversold and that the bad news wasn't all that bad. Ireland is only a small part of the equation, in fact some of the figures looked good. That 7% yield will add support, as long as it being paid and there is 100p psychological level although does it now work the other way if it does fall below it.
On the upside management can get a grip on these issues and some good news should add to the share price. The question is are the management capable of this. There were a lot of calls to get rid. Time will tell. I'm holding and collecting the divis until this turns around but waiting to add if it falls ....... depending on the figures,the market or the unknown unknown at the time!
Clear as mud then! Regards all