Member Info for Georgey

I'm looking at this for the first time. I can see that they were looking at raising debt to meet an acquisition-related deferred consideration payment of $4.5m which was due following a negotiated extension in December. I can't see any RNS so can anyone shed any light on the status of this. Thanks

I’m enjoying this conversation Hi Jhyland, I’m not sure he could get away with using the name sellonnews and no contact number on the TR-1..... I’m also sure he might want the freedom to move back under 3% without disclosure. I know I would. Anyway I’m sure he will speak for himself and show the necessary patience.

For that to happen the admission doc would have needed to be finalised and in circulation and an RNS released at 7am - I would say that was highly unlikely given the outstanding steps indicated today and whilst Friday is possible I expect either next week as long as the necessary people at the Company, advisers, UKLA etc around otherwise the following week. Annoying but such is life.

The Dec 4th RNS makes clear the steps prior both to relisting and transaction completion and these have not changed. All of the terminology used today is also consistent and as defined in the Dec 4th RNS. It makes clear the deal itself has to be both court approved given the creditor aspects (ie a scheme of arrangement, equivalent to many public deals in the UK) and ministerial approval of change of control. This will flow some way through Q1. However, once the admission doc is released all necessary info is in the public domain and we should relist pretty much instaneously depending on the precise time of day the associated RNS comes out. They have signalled that the admission doc is due to be released on or around tomorrow from memory although as the Dec 4th RNS indicates there are a bunch of reports produced ie working capital, long and short form and other 3rd party reports which for a deal of this complexity will be a pain to fully finalise. I have in my mind we will relist next week but let’s see. You will also see from the Dec 4th RNS that they have always signalled the intention to raise UP TO $250m with the plan to increase the drill program from 3 to 5 wells. As someone mentioned earlier they have clearly had their wings clipped and told no, you’re not getting that much at once - you can have enough for the deal consideration and 3 wells now and we can revisit. Where I’m surprised is that their advisers haven’t managed the dialogue with II’s better so that the deal as announced on the 4th was pre agreed only subject to pricing. Nor have I got my head around the strategic partnership aspect - I suspect the hedgie in AK and some really poor advice from some combination of Barclays, PJT and Hannam considered this would be a good idea/ partial solution to lower the II ask but i suspect it went the other way as II’s will always be wary of deals involving PEs and their special terms structured to skew the risk in their favour. Result being lower placing price and warrants which could have been avoided, although to be honest it was somewhat inevitable that II’s will have struck a hard bargain given they will not have wanted to open the taps this late in the year having effectively sorted their books for year end. Just my musings. I’m a lot more sanguine on the deal than just about everyone else on here. Was always a complex deal and most CEO’s wouldn’t have had the balls to give it a go and also follow it through. So I respect him for that even though he hasn’t executed flawlessly by any fair measure. And as we move through 2018 I feel comfortable those still in and following the II money will see decent value accretion. Anyway take a look and you can make your own interpretations......... Cheers

I suspect that behind the scenes the BOD and brokers have been spending time trying to attract new investors to replace TB and whatever TC wants to sell and we are now seeing the first signs of this paying off - I also suspect any new investors would have waited for CE mark before coming on board so hopefully we will see some more evidence shortly over and above a slowly strengthening share price

Congratulations Fundy and thank you. A classic AIM case study in building a position then using these boards and Twitter to promote. Hat doffed as you need to have earned a reputation for spotting value to pull it off. Hope you send everyone who has followed you in a thank you note

I'd be happy if he has taken them directly off TB Any signs they have impetus to deal with the overhang and confidence will start to return

Thanks for the responses bonker - I was out and about this afternoon so didn't have a chance to check the real spread after the tick down. Was surprised at that as there seemed to be volume on both sides once the market sensed we were on the move. Looks good risk reward from here as long as management deliver. Will jump in. Ps well done for giving SDX a nudge yesterday and this morning

And one final question - is the current spread for size deals usual or is it linked to to this being the latter stages of the overhang for example? Thanks again

Can anyone who follows this closely comment on the trading pattern? Are we still suffering a placing overhang, any sense of how much to go before clear if so and does yesterday afternoon's trading also suggest we are shortly clear or is something else happening e.g. Holders simply selling? Thanks

Hi Bob/ Mr Dibble - thanks for this. It is an interesting grey area as it is really the lack of material developments on which the Company previously gave guidance to the market (ie. CE "in weeks" and the fact that expectations were set that TB would enter into orderly arrangements re his stake) that we are seeking clarity on. Whilst the lack of updates tells us the bare bones by exception, I I believe the time lapsed does merit some reportable explanation, particularly on the latter as they will know where they stand with TB. Even if only to say he is being a ****

Thanks for the clarification PRB769 Apologies if my comments came across negative - they weren't meant to offend, just offer some balanced interpretation of what I read

BTFATH1, I'm struggling with your posts. There is a decent business somewhere here, but from what I am reading and please correct me if I am making errors as I have not looked at this since the last profit warning and am only glancing now: 1. No interim dividend 2. Net debt of c.23m from memory which is unsustainable 3. Acting CEO comments that debt should be lowered 4. They indicate plans to close not sell Nufarm - this will cost money not bring it in in the short term I can't see any dividend for a while and reading between he lines they may be seeking an equity raise to lower debt. One positive - the Acting CEO may be applying the kitchen sink so an interesting medium term play. However, since he was CFO from March, he hasn't covered himself in glory given their statements in August.

All well thought through counterarguments are well appreciated. Seems you may be a fellow ACA. If not, apologies for the slur. I am relying on the RNS's which may be naïve of course. I agree with you on why insurers tend to go to the wall, and that risk is certainly there. However, the solvency capital issue has been there for some time. They continue to write new business suggesting brokers have not taken fright at least up to now and they do not appear in any form of run off mode. Their cash buffer and what appears to be (finally) a proactive restructuring with third party interest in certain books of business or a broader deal suggests there is value there and the current share price will enhance the possibilities. We shall see! One issue you don't mention is that whilst the imminent results should now be priced in, there is often still some short term reaction before a bounce back - I am often travelling so prepared to take that risk. Cheers

This is really interesting now. One thing for sure, up or down, it won't be at 5p for particularly long. I've bought 150,000, worth the risk as upside is significant. May do the same again later or tomorrow.