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is an extension of the Kurdistan play. The main target formations are carbonates which run North out of Iraq and up into Turkey and Syria. There is oil and Gas production in the area, though this block is semi-unexplored. The prospect is considered gas prone, Occidental drilled there in the past and detected gas above the main pay but never penetrated the payzone. The play is in effect a wildcat, we have no idea what the potential of the area/region is. The well prognosis is based on Gas and predicts ~450BCF gas for this structure, there are several others within the seismic mapped area. The uncertainties in closure and depth migration are large and can only be refined by drilling. In short, we have no idea, until results are announced what we may/may not have on our hands here. There are random distributions of oil fields all across the syrian area, the gas prognosis is a best-estimate/statistical probability. There is perhaps, a 10% chance this COULD, could, be oilbearing. There is also a chance that this has significant Condensate, this is more valuable than black-oil, basically petrol. Some syrian reservoirs are high CGR, Condesate/Gas Ratio, this too would be a good result... but we have to wait&see. IMHO/DYOR - geo.... off to check the intel sources.
To cover SP, I felt fair value for SE was about 35p but they have under-performed on Bowmore/W.Don, W. Don is not their fault, Petrofac are the operators and have just plain done a poor job. It is however the job of partners to be ornery with operators and look if all the boxes are ticked, demand they are if not, SE management failed to do that and are paying the price. On this basis, with 1100 BBl/d of production, say a 1000 for downtime, their cashflow is circa $25Mil per year. Turkey is about net-neutral and W. Don should improve if they drill the extra well this year/fix problems. Based on Market cap, that puts current SP at about right but takes no account of assets proved, Cairngorm and Crawford, possibles Bowmore/ other N.Sea acreage and rank unknowns overseas, Syria being most important now. If you were to price-in these assets, I feel about 22p would be a fair-value/upside premium... proving Syria as commercial or more is unknown but the Canuks [ and I tend to agree] are looking at an SP at 35-55p range, and that is at no premium. With all this said, SE has not yet met a good SP, it peaked at 23-24p at the height of the Bowmore speculation and has been in the deep doldrums since. The share is un-loved, the company need to get something good to change that and luck, cuts both ways. To clarify the BOD/Man past, these folk were at Enterprise Oil before Stratic, they have a track-record of success, the company has the credentials to do very well but they will need a find to move the business forward to where it has the potential to go. IMHO/DYOR - Geo
would be expected even if there is an RNS before/by 7am Monday, the MM's don't have a clue where this SP is going and [I am pretty sure] are not holding a large float of stock. They are slowing the whole process down by matching buys/sells and freezing sells until yhey can set a price. It will not dramatically affect small transactions, it's really a question of how many big buy's or sells are sitting waiting to be filled. Took Saturday off for the Family, a day for them but will be through all the rounds of research through Sunday. The action here is all based on rumour out of a BB in Canada, I just don't know if this is truth, inside knowledge or conserted manipulation. Though the "Maz12" post is clear, two or three other posters have been supporting/intimating that there is a good result out of this well. The problem here is that they did that with Bowmore too, I KNOW that some of that information was just plain wrong/innaccurate, so this becomes the acid-test for me if Oiljack/GS/jwallisca et al are truthful or just riding the waves on this share. To mitigate, there is the simple fact that ~monday, we have been on this well 110days against AFE for 80 days, given tight funding for 2 of the companies here[don't think KUFPEC, Kuwait are watching the pennies] there has to be a reason. I would also say the complete lack of any RNS, I have posted the potential excuses earlier, speaks volumes. I am writting this before I have looked on Stratic or TDW so there could be one there, if not, it points. I have invested about 18 months of research on this outfit, so I am not emotionally detached, for those of you here to make a return, I would suggest that you do just that as there are no certainties in this stock as things stand. I hope all have a benefitial stay whilst they are with this stock, and luck to those who [have/may] stay for the ride, it could be rocky, has been in the past. GLA, IMHO/DYOR - Geo
Picking up towards the end of the day, looks as if SE will end 23c, holding about the same from Thursday close. Volume is 500K 30 min before close, normal volume day. All the best to all for Monday, don't think we will see an RNS if any of the chatter over the pond is right.... may be interesting. GLA, IMHO/DYOR - Geo
Yes I posted links to the confirmation that the rig is still onsite, multiple confirmations now. There is something happening here as we have had not had the "no reason" RNS and should have had a "technical difficulties delay completion" RNS if that were the case, we are now approaching a 50% over-run on well plan, that is way beyond any normality for a well-gone-wrong-scenario and with the tightness of cash for DXE/SE they could not carry it without some justification... the complete absence of any RNS speaks volumes for me, they cannot disclose what is happening as their is no conclusive data/incomplete and they cannot tell a porky excuse, therefore they cannot say anything.... speculation but it fits for me. On the hope of Monday RNS 7am, I would expect a TSX-V buying frenzy before close, will be watching. IMHO/DYOR - geo
RNS normally 0700 hrs UK, odd one at 2pm to release before Venture opens. T-O is a high probability if the well is a bust, looks unlikely, there are comments to that effect in the 3Q presentation which you can pick up online via one of the RNS's about 3Q. Also there is a presentation on the website: http://www.straticenergy.com/ which gives a lot of background, there is the usual research stuff on there. General evaluation from me is that they are under-valued at even this SP, they have under-performed but have been dogged by bad-luck in recent times. Bowmore is an unknown, there is a well planned there [re-entry/sidetrack possible] this year, which is odd if it were taken as a bust, so it may not be...... If Syria were to be a fail, their assets, in particular 1000+BBl per day out of W.Don would look like nice cash-flow for a cash-rich/well backed junior, I have always considered IAE/SQZ favourites as they are Canuk too, but an EO. would fit too, obviously others I have not considered... just my guess but I dont see more than short term downside for even new entries, Syria is the key though. IMHO/DYOR- Geo
and the men in white coats.... remember well. - geo
posts. http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=12050&mn=6989&pt=msg&mid=8478980 http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=12050&mn=6993&pt=msg&mid=8479090 - Geo
seems to have frozen, no trades updating but the price is fluctuating,...uhm?... seems to be a batch of sells clearing through with buys coming in on the price-drop, volume above 300K for first 15+min but no volume changes for about 15min so not really sure what is happening. Looks like UK MM's trying to track the Venture, hence the drop along with more nervous UK holders taking a lead from the open in Canada...... - Geo
Canuks are lined up with sells, still big volume and down to 22c. - Geo
Initial buys and sells, volume high, big 49K sell just went through and SP down to 22c.... Geo
4 min after open, 182K shares traded, 23/24c, recent trades all looks like buys, there were a stack of sellers who had decided overnight and took out on open, very high volume, SE [as it is in Canada] normaly trades 500K per day average. Off to scan BB's. - Geo
Canada, 24/24.5c price, [up], 44sells, 122 buys[transactions, not shares], 150K shares traded, one 88K buy. - looking good - Geo
150K of shares traded on open of Venture.....
updates only every 15min on my site, will relay any data when it shows up. -Geo
30 on bid 1 on Ask, looks like selling though the volumes are the question. - Geo
about newcomers here, if they have not DTOR D-D then its just punters. TSX to open soon, nothing stunning on the BB's, they are mainly just watching us, this one is beeping loud on the radar and one of few profit shares right now, no one here has or will offer any guarantees, there are posts on BB's in Canada/US saying that SE are testing this well in Syria, prognosis is 450BCF which if true de-risks in excess of 1 BCF of gas, very outside chance of oil instead of gas. Stratic have ~1000 BBl/d production in N. Sea, Gas off Turkey though its a bit of a tiddler, a bunch of goodish exploration prospects, and more production North Sea to come hopefully next year. On the downside, they have a lot of debt but it is [we are told] under control with consenting adults involved. The Syria well has been on the back burner for years as it was Legacy from the Grove take-over years ago, Oxy had the acreage and drilled to top of structure but pulled out, possibly because of sanctions against Syria. That's a precis of SE. as a share, for more balanced /authoritative info, DYOR. - Geo Link to Venture if anyone wants to track. http://cxa.marketwatch.com/tsx/en/market/quote.aspx?symbol=SE&x=22&y=6
BB's and TSX. - Geo
I think your entry was a bit later than mine, have been here ~ 16 months... been through a few ups-downs, only went out when it hit 24p, left a little in at 10p buy but then bought more here/canada when Bowmore bombed. Have been patiently waiting for the tide to turn, if Syria comes-in, I think that will be it. My mid is not far away from where we are now so I will hold to see more movement, still like the Co anyway for the long-run.... win-win really. - All the Best - geo
Wellcome aboard, hope there are no tears before bedtime here as this one is on a knife-edge depending on.... RNS, More news, Suspension of trading, Halt in Canada, Another big day there... mostly rumour.... who knows???? - Geo