Member Info for Genghis15

Of course. Perhaps you could advise your source for Tain $5 per barrel valuation.

Informative thread, thanks to contributors.

as I posted elsewhere, I am researching here, very promising. Clearly the upcoming drill is crucial, in a success case great upside here.

"You are correct you should SELL YOUR SHARES."
Fwiw I don't hold atm,. I came here for a quick trade, but am becoming more and more convinced this is a LTH with great potential, so I am digging a little deeper There seem to be some well informed posters here who are very helpful, but I need also to get myself fully acquainted b4 making big bets here.

"Tain has been valued at $5 a barrel though." Who by, and on what basis?

"@$5 a barrel".
Questionable assumption, either for a TO or a SP valuation.

I don't know what a reasonable value is for oil in the ground, in a undeveloped asset, but I'm pretty sure it's not $5 per barrel.

Hope you filled yer boots, TDG.

Just needs a flare sighting and away we go mb next week?

Fair enough, but all that takes us well into 2020, and requires funding, drilling and testing, and probably, partnering.
Personally I'm happy all those things will be achieved, but think it understandable that the market ascribes some risk/uncertainty to that, hence why we're at the current SP.

zahirmiahoutlook/Ophidian Yes, true.

But TDG has his tactics, and it is a sad fact for LTHs that they often work.

Those using those tactics risk missing out when a big liquidity event arrives, but as a ST trade it seems to often make sense.

I was interested in the Q&A around flow rates from Stifel
"The second question was on the testing capacity or capabilities of the Transocean Leader...... -- what flow rate capacity from the wells could that test? I'm interested in whether ..... -- that's going to constrain the flow rates at which you could actually test those wells."

A. "All equipment on an exploration or appraisal drilling rig will be constrained and off. So what we will be aiming to do is to achieve flow rates in excess of 5,000 barrels a day."

That answer seems to me not to answer the question, ?

Succinctly put, casapinos.

It is an accounting with al most no relevance to the layman here, and more broadly, as AS says, the accounts "as with any pre-revenue company, are .. remarkably uninteresting. "

Daltry
" The SP will then drop 15%-20% a few days after. Don't tell me this is common behaviour. "

But it is. Lok at i3e this week, exactly the same comments over there. I can't say if it's manipulation, or if it's just ST traders getting out, but whatever the cause, it is most certainly "common behaviour".

S4K, one could easily say the evidence says the opposite...….just sayin

Thanks a.hp.
5 to 8 seems pretty good rate to me , for a small oilie on first production.

BBN
You state that any equity raise would be at a higher sp post A2 success.
Perfectly reasonable assumption.

Trouble is, this is AIM, and I cant b the only one who has seen the SP dragged down pre raise to get a cheaper entry for placees. Often with a very nice warrant sweetener as well.

So whilst your point is logical ( and of course there mb no raise needed at all)! I wouldn't bank on it.
The presence of very logical famines does give other options, but everyone screws the party that needs cash.
Hopefully i3E won't need it.

https://contrarianinvestor.net/posts/2019/10/29/i3-energy-delivers-great-result-at-serenity-prospect-and-shares-very-undervalued?utm_source=Contrarian+Investor&utm_campaign=94cbdd2e1c-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d8d009f451-94cbdd2e1c-52690905

Afaik, it's Tuesday today?

Seems eminently sensible to me ; assuring their shareholders they recognise the readacross to Tain and the need to reassess development plans. No more, no less, I would suggest.

BBN, no, you didn't, of course. I guess what I'm saying is that I'm a bit wary of even quoting NPVs without a health warning, as others are quick to extrapolate them to SP projections, as they are doing here on different threads. Sorry for lack of clarity, but hope you see what I mean.

Had a little dabble...…...boom, indeed, but way to go, methinks.

BBN

Thank you for your detailed posts, usually very informative.

But please, -everybody-, stop using NPVs as a means to calculate a future sp.

For one thing, we don't know how these NPVs were calculated (discount rates, capex assumptions, future PoO). Even more important, NPVs are rarely reflected in the SP. Even in a TO, the price will depend less on calculations of NPV and more on what a bidder will pay for oil in the ground, an assumption which is always changing but is much less than it was, say, 5 or 6 years ago.

There's plenty of upside here, but NPVs are just NOT going to be achieved in the SP.

No, why would you think that?