Member Info for Genghis15

No, and no.

My guess would be that an RNS will be issued "testing has begun" before/after market hors, so that flarewatchers cannot get an unfair advantage, and that testing which does not generate visible signs will not be RNS'd.

I know that's outside the spirit of the last RNS, but that's my take on it.

Fred

Big discount on anything S America is/was AMER's problem.

Understandable given regional history, same over at PPC I don't hold, but Peter Levene worth watching, imho).

Not long since we were 1.4p.

Raise was value accretive, not dilutive.

This must surely, be the bottom : if I had spare cash I would be loading up at thus level.
But Dyor, as ever.

" if ur not prepared to wait a few years then this isn't for u"

Mb.

But many of us have waited those few years already.

The swampys and nimbys will be all over WN, for sure. They will drag the planning issues out unyila Dec of State decision, most likely, and there will almost ceretainly be site protests too.

Nevertheless I expect this to be developed, but the CC activists will slow it up.

About the only downside here at RBD, really ; if only it was, say, 2km offshore....

I don't follow the toxic creature that is Chrisoil, but would be grateful for any solid info on this rumour.

Biffa
Agree with your 12.21 post re GLA drills. While PBLJ likely for GWA, until we get a bit closer, let's not rule out an accelerated GLA schedule too.

As ever, wait and see.

Rainbow
Mud losses are not a function of the balance, it is a fact of life in a connected FB reservoir. So WD had only small losses bcos the fracture network was not well connected. So high losses are good, regardless of mud weight.

I agree with Biffa, things seem tight this time, so no news on that front.

Fat fingers.....$28 opex , from memory, plus $6, I think, for capex amortisation.

If you're going to do financial projections do them properly.

What about all the opex, bareboat is only part of it ; plus capex for subsea, tieback, and FPSO mods. Best assume opex+ capex equates to the $25 for the EPS. There are of course variables, but that is probably the best we have to go on at this stage.

If there's one thing I've learnt from the last few years it's that there's ALWAYS a seller. Doesn't matter how good the prospects, how undervalued the share, how close it is to potentially multibagging. There is always a party, or parties, that for reasons
unknown, just want the cash.

Hey ho.

I agree with other LTHs on here, the potential is great. Fwiw, tho, I don't see any monetisation of WN until after the EWT, at least, and possibly not till the upcoming drills are complete also. We'll see.

"Nobody here will be buying I3e lol."

I will.

All it tells me is that a junior scribbler has reported a market rumour, then covered his arse with a cautionary note re WD.

That said, I'll take any publicity like that going into the weekend. And, personally, I think there's a good chance the rumours are close to the mark, but that's jimho, with perhaps a jot of wishful thinking thrown in.

Shows what damage Kerogen did, unloading at 20% below market price.

And just weeks after Roy Kelly assured us at the AGM that the then current SP of almost 60p was not fair value, and that Kerogen looked to holding periods around. 10 years.

I know they had their reasons, and I know he had to say what he did. just shows, tho, that its a dirty business, and you can' trust anything anyone says.

With near 6 months continuous EPS production behind us, it should ne £1 by now, never mind 50p.

The WD failed DST, followed by the Kerogen sale, bashed this down, but the big picture is the EPS success.

WW success should give us a good boost, but the real rise should be the Q1 CMd, and what it will say about Lancaster.

Why do I think high CoS?

Well, inevitably it is a little subjective, but...

1. HUR have fantastic record of hitting the fractures, and of finding oil. The only drills less than 100% successful were A)Halifax, which was exploration, using overbalanced, heavy mud, for operational/regulatory/safety reasons; and B_ WD, where the encountered HCs but hit a "poorly connected section of the fracture network".
So, for me, the only doubts are a) Does Warwick have a HC reservoir; and b) will they hit the fractures.

I don't believe for a second that HUR and Dr T will be drilling a structure with no HCs in it ; don't forget Spirit will have pored over the data too, and every structure they've drilled has found oil. Good enough for me.

So the WD result casts its shadow, will they hit the fractures?
Well, my reasoning is that the shallower drill MAY mean the seismic seeing is better ; the modelling should have learnt from WD ; and again mb, as its the 2nd drill on the structure the mud balance will not inhibit flow.
And, if WD had raised serious doubts within HUR/Spirit, why continue with WW? Use the cash to drill another Lincoln hole, instead, but no, WW goes ahead.

You can pick holes in some of my reasoning, I know. Feel free. I may be wrong. I was on WD, and there's the rub.

Fair point reUJO, tho it mb relevant that they are, I believe (pls correct if I'm wrong here) they ARE funded thru EWT.

Given a successful EWT (esp on the nose quoted today!) would push up their SP why would they raise now?

Would.
Not void.

WD was P&A"d, so no gauges left there : given it failed to flow even on a 1000psi "suck" there void be no readings to take.
It is the WW/LC response that is important, and whether they "see" the Brynhilde fault.

Whilst the model is 2 superguants, this not yet completely ruled out that GLA/GWA could be connected.
So they will be looking for pressure responses on the AM, too imho.

Jiffy
I attended the last RGS event, and it was a day or 2 prior to CMD, and Dr T was v careful to ensure nothing was said that wasn't already public.
I'm sure that will apply this time too.

Nevertheless the last event was well worth attending, and I will be attending this one.

I know many can't, due to geography and/or limited numbers, but well worth it if you can.