Member Info for GavWallace

Any idea how I can be added to the Telegram group?

I beg to differ. Even though the government is in turmoil (when are they not), the MP supporting this is NPP. I don’t think it will change the decision that this will be ratified. When though is a different question. We have many people leaning on this going through. I personally feel this will go through fairly quickly

Those in the know. How is this ratified? Is there a number read out that then gets discussed? Will it be live?

I’m constantly watching Ghana parliament on YT. I think it’s a complete joke but it would be nice to listen out for something….

Or perhaps buy to cover your short? Mr008 I have looked through this board and your arguments have no credibility.

I’d be covering those shorts…..

Hey Billy,

Well done for holding, I sold before results which we all
Know were terrible but it was expected. I like the positivity from them though which shows they are not sitting back doing nothing. SP may drift next couple of days but I’ll be sitting waiting for an entry v soon.

Well done to those that held ??

Well done all here who have held. Not my place to judge or influence, I just share my views. Unwelcome or welcome they are my views.

Take me as you want, you have your own money and I do mine. I also have an opinion which I am generally polite with.

My opinion has not changed but happy to play momentum when it’s there and hold when not.

One thing for sure this is a short term trade for me.

I wish you both, all the very best of luck even though we differ in views

Billy, thanks for being level headed and diplomatic on here.

I love keyboard warriors.

Just to let you know, I’m long with this as of today I’m long. Momentum is strong.

Does this change my view? Of course not but will trade what I see.

GL all.

Billy

NCYT -
EPS - £2.38
PE - 3.11
Fair value £20.63

SNG
EPS - £0.45
PE - 4.06
Fair value £3.53

Greggs
EPS - £0.44
PE - 47.85
Fair Value - £6.49

Hopefully you can understand why I’m bearish about GRG.

I do know that stocks can sit priced way above earnings but inevitably all companies come back to their Fair value to some degree.

Only research I need to do to find out my local stores are pre order only is open my eyes as it’s plastered on the front.
Not to say your local is the same though. It would be good to see your research though...

Billy, nice to see a bit of respectful conversation here at last. Good man for digging out some data however the data is old. Based on current figures and projections it’s perhaps worth looking at the actual numbers
PE - 47.85
PEG - (-0.17)
Growth rate - (-8%)
Dividend - nil

Guys, hopefully you will use some form of stock analysis programs/subscriptions? Can I ask what you use as I’m intrigued where you are getting your valuations from?
I use both Stockopedia and VectorVest. The latter is by far the most powerful but both have really good research points.

schjmh - thanks for checking the some centres in England. I checked myself and That’s really encouraging signs ??
Nice to see there can be some good and nice exchange on here. Let’s just hope their earnings impress in March

Moniman, everyone’s entitled to their opinion and unlike you. I’m trying to do it in a constructive way. Yes, please if you don’t want to listen then don’t.

Maybe others who do might just want to tighten their stops

That is a fair point and perhaps my choice of wording could have been better. You will see that a lot of prime locations are unfortunately shut. There is as you say lots still open however from what I can see they are running a much reduced service and a pre order service only.

Guys, I still think this is a good company that will do well over time but I’m concerned about the share price compared to the forecast earnings. Is that such a bad thing? I was in here up until recently. I feel it’s overbought just now and I know current fair value is below £7. Do I think it will go back to that? Of course not. I do feel though that based on forecast and previous earnings that this price will pull back to the £14-£15 easily. At which time I would again be a buyer as I’m sure you all would be keen to add.

Just be careful with this one, there may be a bit of a bite out of the sausage roll before they bring a fresh one out of the oven.

....love a haggis roll btw. Who doesn’t ??

Very easy;
Just click here
https://www.greggs.co.uk/shopfinder
Out your local area in and you will see the huge amount of shops currently closed. I just keyed in Edinburgh. Quite easy to see just how many are still closed.

Please see the share price in July last year when all the retail outlets had reopened.
July
EPS - £0.80 Share price approximately £12
Today
EPS - £

Very easy;
Just click here
https://www.greggs.co.uk/shopfinder
Out your local area in and you will see the huge amount of shops currently closed. I just keyed in Edinburgh. Quite easy to see just how many are still closed.

Please see the share price in July last year when all the retail outlets had reopened.
July
EPS - £0.80 Share price approximately £12
Today
EPS - £0.43 Share price is £21

A very strong rally in the FTSE seems to be keeping the share price afloat here but eventually the fundamentals will catch up.

Apologies if you feel I’m ‘deramping’ but we can’t all be positive about a company when fundamentals are against it. Not trying to anger anyone but happy to chat civilly about this

Billy, what do you think about the current EPS and the forecast EPS?

Do you feel that the EPS will return to 2019 this year and also into 2022?

EPS is what drives a share price and in my view that this will unlikely return to the previous highs.

I wish you luck though

I can see your optimism in this share and it has to be commended however, can you put some numbers down to back up your argument? Above all, EPS have to equate to the share price. The current CEO has stated that pre covid sales will not return until 2022 at v earliest.
Currently, most of the Gregg’s outlets are closed
Forecast a £15m loss this year
EPS are at circa £0.40
Trading at nearly 50 x forecast earnings
Footfall within its prime locations is going to be significantly down this year and a return to normality may not be until 2022 at earliest and studies have also indicated that the savings from people working from home outweigh the commercial property costs.

Please, don’t take offence to what I’m writing but I cannot see what has improved with this company since mid last year when it was half the price it currently is. It’s got worse, a lot worse.

All I’m saying is I don’t fall in love with a company just because of previous sales. It has to be valued at present and future.

Trust me, my money is nowhere near a bank, nor is it near a vegan sausage roll.

Out of curiosity, based on current and forecast earnings how do you come to your valuation?

Thanks for your criticism it’s taken on board, briefly.

Could I ask what your experience is when calculating fair value for a company? I generally take the trading status and every other parameter that is governing a company and come up with a figure. This figure is backed up by the use of share research companies such as Stockopedia and VectorVest. You may want to take a look as they both value this share as over valued.

As the above poster has said, this share was down at £11.30 last year. Conditions have worsened, company is at a loss and is grappling of ways to keep some income going.

I’m not saying this share price will fall to its fair value, especially with as many retail investors currently playing this game however at this price it’s not a hold for me and I’d be happy to borrow your stock for a month and see.

Not deramping but purely stating my views and give others a balanced fair view.

I wish everyone luck whichever way they deem this share price going.

I appreciate your comments however how do you put a fair value on this stock? If you had a £1 you would need to have 637 years to get this back on current earnings. That to me doesn’t sound like a company I invest in.

I wish you luck but I stand by my valuation