Member Info for Gavster-NBC

Ho long is a piece of string.? EVR is the most volatile large cap share I've invested in.
Sentiment can knock 10% off the EVRAZ share price in an afternoon, and equally give it a 10% boost.
IMO The company recognised that harder times were around the corner before the Covid-19 disaster started.
They say in their statements they are committed to dividend but the money has to be there.
https://www.evraz.com/upload/iblock/63e/63eab5e59dcd77672e8cb51f1375a8e4.pdf
We'll see tomorrow, but personally with all the news about loans I am not expecting a dividend until later on in the year, and even that would be at a lower level. They may hold back on the original CAPEX spend to keep out of any Covid trouble.,
I'm please to hold for the longer term after successfully trading my holding into my ISA, which puts the SP back above 500p IMO once the world gets back on track, even if that takes a few years.

15p..... Well that escalated quickly !

ZAR is getting bashed, gold price largest ever in ZAR and GBP

Is all the gloomy news priced in ?

"Russia’s steel exports down 8.6 percent in Jan-Feb"
"According to the official customs data, in the January-February period this year, Russia’s steel exports decreased by 8.6 percent year on year to 4.345 million mt. In the given period, Russia exported 2.447 million mt of semi-finished steel products and 979,400 mt of flats and, down 7.8 percent and 18.9 percent respectively, both year on year.
https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/russias-steel-exports-down-86-percent-in-jan_feb-1143125.htm

BHP and Rio see solid rebound in China’s steel sector
https://www.ft.com/content/007bf34d-e890-4b4e-8ab8-57871ab359a2

"A recovery can only be seen later this year if the economic stimulus programmes imposed by various countries show impact.
The unexpected virus pandemic, projected to bring about a global recession, exacerbates the already challenging operating environment for steel makers around the world, says Moody’s in its special report last week.
The broad macroeconomic weakness caused by the pandemic will further drive down demand for steel in core industries like manufacturing, automotive, construction, as well as oil and gas exploration."
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2020/04/18/covid-19-further-dampens-global-steel-sector

Market CAP = £3,701m = $4.600m
Last net asset value = $1,928m

Hi Marcus. Cheers.. It's worked out so far...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/
Russia is having a difficult time containing the virus like the UK and the USA but for it's own reasons, despite putting in measures in a reasonable time at a much lower level of infections. Knowing this, In my opinion the SP will not go much below this, if it does go below this level as so much is already priced in. I also doubt very much that an August dividend will be paid, if a dividend is paid, then surely it will be at a much lower level given their debt structure and the current climate.

It will be a long 8 weeks to the Trading Announcement on 30-Jan-2020.

Indicators
https://www.lme.com/Metals/Ferrous/HRC-FOB-China#tabIndex=2
https://www.lme.com/Metals/Ferrous/HRC-N-America#tabIndex=2
https://www.lme.com/Metals/Ferrous/Steel-Rebar#tabIndex=2
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/iron-ore-price
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/coal-price
https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/vaneck-vectors-steel-etf

A spanking today by the markets. Thought my 238 buy was good.. Waiting game it is.

Surprised Skier isn't here calling and SP of 70p etc etc etc

My limit Buy-trade at 238p got triggered today, and improved my average much after selling the lot to transfer to my ISA.
Not always things work out. But glad of this.

How low can this go ?

No word from the company about closures/Covid-19 or anything else which I'm not too impressed with however such a large operations await the the next period. IMO the USA as a main driver of the world's markets is digging itself into an ever larger Corona hole with it's virus reactions.

Will their planned capex spend go lower in favour of another Dividend cash to keep the the operations going ?

What will be the SP in December ?

If the gold Price stays in the $1700s, I am targeting 16p plus and a dividend of around 1.5p. Anyone have thoughts ?

I would have thought skier would gloating over his short selling profits.

These are my fundamental questions which I'm thinking about because my buy button is at the ready.

1. How long will the COVID-19 recession last ?
2. Will the Virus continue to spread in Russia effecting the main operations ?
3. Will the board regret the decision to pay the last dividend instead of paying off debt ?
4. Will this recession be followed by rise a commodity prices. The metals and steel price in 2011 two years after the credit crunch was a large rise. ?

It's a badly worded press release, again.

Surely if the blasting is allowed then the fire sale of the company would no longer happen ? That's surely the position that must be pushed in order to get the best price anyway. I'll have to email the company to clarify.

"Blasting : Confirmation has been received from the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) in regard to satisfaction of certain secure storage and handling protocols required for an increase in blasting to a commercial level. Some other issues, regarding financial matters, are being progressed and the Company is endeavoring to achieve an acceptable resolution in co-operation with PSNI at the earliest date. "

Moody's have waded in to SA with a junk rating. Bad, but it may be considered the last of the country's troubles. The pound has come back from the dip which will put pressure on the SP today.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/south-africa-gets-full-house-of-junk-ratings-after-moody-s-cut

The gold price will surely to start some moves skyward with the large amount of QE, however there are now factors at play making the price harder to predict. A third of the world is in lock down, mines are closed, industry is on hold, a significant percentage including SA's 6% of world production. Physical gold has been taken off the world's store shelves, but some demand is also on hold. This now also applies to many mined metals and commodities.

I've sold some of my holdings elsewhere but I am holding my PAF. IMO there is trouble ahead but don't want to miss the boat when it leaves.

Hi Eish, it's good reasoning but on the other hand, COVID-19 is known to mainly attack the old. SA may not be as affected as feared due to the average age of the population 27, compared to Italy 45. Even with a higher population age, like Germany's 47, it's not a guarantee that the virus effect will be huge. That said, people have to respect the lockdown and keep a wide social distance for it to work, and three weeks is likely too optimistic. People probably will respect it will after the use of water cannon and rubber bullets on shoppers, but that's not a wise way to deal with panic buyers IMO. I cannot imagine being shot at just because I want to buy some extra food for my family, and I certainly would not respect authority afterwards.

Whiteman's Disease... Weird, because I'm sure white's consider it to be more like a 'Mad Chinese Bat Flu'

We'll see...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Africa
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_gold_production
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mining_industry_of_South_Africa

I sold some holdings yesterday at 253.4 just before time, for an overall 45% loss in order to trade my average down !!...
I missed the top prices during the first few hours as I though the US stimulus would have more momentum.

I know posters hardly ever post their trades unless in hindsight, as we all have seen them go wrong, but with the swings going crazy and these being unprecedented times. I'm hoping to stimulate some more discussion.

1. I think the US Stimulus package boost will be short lived as within days the USA will take over China with regards to number of Covid-19 cases. India, Japan, Europe and most of the world are shutting down as surely will the USA in the coming days. IMO this whole "keep everything open for business" approach will be kicked into touch as people see high profile virus cases of the young, famous and fit and realise this is much more deadly and not just in addition to seasonal flu.
2. It is a capital gains loss.
3. I will wait to transfer the cash along with the divi into my ISA in the coming weeks to use the new allowance to buy back.
4. Russia, where the main operations are is so far pretty unaffected by the virus. Like everywhere else, this will get worse.
5. The risk.. If there is a swing upwards and I do lose out, I can get back in without too much damage to my overall lose on this share.

Cheers all and GL

PAF staying steady with the gold price soaring today is the market factoring in the SA Lockdown.
Good time to some PAF in my opinion, during the SA lockdown. Very wise of them to practice distancing now before the death rate gets going like in other countries.
The gold price in GBP is the highest ever, and with all the money printing the gold price is going to go higher in USD too.
3 weeks is a max ounces drop of around 11,000 ounces. Cobus will be looking to make this up if not already
A rise in gold price of 6% will surely make up for this.
By accounts of all the goldies out there, there will be a spike in gold, $2000 to the sky.
We'll see but surely $1900 is on the cards as a first, especially when the solution to all the western worlds problems will be more and more QE.

Thanks for posting Stockable.
They have chosen PAF as one of their gold investments to ride this storm and I take this as a nod from a fund manager, gold being the traditional haven when all things go wrong.
Here is a report from their gold fund. Worth 5 billion in December.
https://www.ruffer.co.uk/-/media/Ruffer-Website/Files/Fund-reports/RGF/2019/2019-12-RGF-fund-report-Dec2019.pdf
PAF is so far down from 12s to 9s and holding up very well, even comparing to indexes.
I don't think this is the bottom or the end of the swings, but as before in the financial crisis, gold will have it's day in the sun.

For all Goldies - here is my favourite doomsday-ist, Peter Schiff talking about the gold rocket coming after all the QE.

https://schiffgold.com/peters-podcast/peter-schiff-weve-passed-the-point-of-no-return/

Who knows anything anymore. Trillions pumped into the market, 10% down, but gold is a safe haven, also down, construction will come to stand still, Evraz Up.
I guess one could theorise about it being a Russian company, shielded so far from virus effects and China bringing Covid-19 under control, but it could be down by 20% this time tomorrow and the FTSE up by 10 %.

Wild west out there. Batten the hatches down and let the algorithms and high frequencies fight it out.

Coronation it was, 24 Million shares sold by my calcs. Under normal circumstance, this should spring the SP northwards, but with the potential of a Corona Crash, I agree, a very bumpy ride lays ahead with gold ultimately going north.
PAF holding up well, but if the SP did collapse with a crash, it should not effect the business, nor the levels of gold or the debt, so the same potential dividend returns and higher SP would be on the horizon.

A welcome blue share in a sea of red today.
Gold is at record levels, well done Cobus for some more sentiment our way.

Correction, meant other way round, lower than crash and touching oil spill.

Lower than deep water horizon spill and touching 2008 crash level.

We are still just at the beginning of the Virus being in the west and this oil price fiasco, which is not comforting.

Sunday evening and the FTSE is showing to open -350 points and the Dow down by over a 1000 !
Skier looks correct, for all his wrong reasons except for the Covid-19 panic.
The oil price has sunk as the Saudis pounce and portfolio pillars like BP will be battered around 10%.
We can now all see the virus is going to create more and more havoc in the western world. The death rate of the Italian outbreak is truly alarming and the UK is likely a week or two behind Italy. Unlike China which now has the virus under control, we have a government inept at real governing and no health resources to deal with it. China built hospitals to house thousands of patients in a week, we'll be lucky if Boris announces 500 tents.

So.. Sell on the bounce or grit teeth and hole ?

Hi Ragnar et al.

Aren't the hedges only affecting 20,000 ounces ( 11% of production) and stop in June, so would not have such a holding effect on the SP here.

If there is a large scale seller holding the price back, then who might it be and surely the SP will spring upwards once selling is finished. ?