Lower Bankruptcy Risk For UK Than France25 Oct 2022 08:29
“Bankruptcy risk for the UK has fallen below that of France as Rishi Sunak restores the Government’s financial credibility, and markets radically reprice the political risk premium of this country.
Credit default swaps (CDS) measuring the likelihood of sovereign bankruptcy five years ahead have plummeted to 33.92 and are now lower than they were during the pandemic, suggesting that investors will forgive the mini-Budget storm and treat the incoming prime minister as a new broom.
The equivalent CDS for France have shot up over recent days and reached 34.25 yesterday after the latest PMI survey of manufacturing and services by S&P Global showed France to be on the cusp of recession, with French industrial plants already in deep trouble.
The index for the whole eurozone showed a marked deterioration, dropping to levels seen during Europe’s debt crisis a decade ago. Germany saw the worst fall and is now in a protracted slump as the energy crisis eats into confidence and wreaks havoc across heavy industry and manufacturing.
The CDS have risen to 48 in Belgium, 66 in Spain and Portugal, 170 in Italy, and Greece at 195. All have been rising over recent weeks as global financial stress mounts. While there has been much commentary suggesting that the UK is now a worse sovereign credit risk than Italy and Greece, this clearly is not reflected in the purest market gauge available.”