Member Info for garyn

Interesting trade showing up after hours as well - did wonder if we might see Taconic start to reduce with the SP down here and the buyback having now started?

I see the risk of that as much lower after the ECB 0.5% rate rise today - and especially so if the Fed also raise rates again. Worth remembering as well that 2008 was largely caused by junk bonds, whereas some of what we are seeing now is government debt (around 80% of what SVB was holding to cover a 25% deposit requirement was T bills, they just screwed up taking long dated ones!). Not out of the woods yet, but I personally don’t yet see a 2008 scenario unfolding - plus with stress tests done regularly on the larger banks measures should be in place to prevent that anyway. Although can never rule out a complete loss of confidence causing a run.

Dumbly, it’s the only way that I can see it working longer term and ensuring that the North Sea still attracts investment. I also believe they will need to allow sunk Capex to be offset as well. Basically along the lines of the Norwegian system - which seems to work very well for everyone! The Norwegian govt is also a stakeholder in its oil fields and the Norwegian population did rather well last year from all the money that came in both from taxation and also the high prices realised on the nations share of production! It raked in $140 billion last year from oil and gas!

I can only see it working if the windfall tax only applies above a certain price - otherwise oil companies would sell all of their production at $0.01 below the threshold and pay 40% tax on that rather than 75% on their entire profit?

Nitro, just out of interest, do you still hold shares? Just wondered as only a week ago you seemed very positive about the long term of the company and the upside here?

No problem - some were deliberately trying to stir things up by directly copying a few of my tweets etc, people who I suspect are probably part of a trading group.
My views on this one have largely been based on the finance deal involving the convertible bonds which I never liked, and the failure to secure alternative finance in the promised time scales.
Contrary to what some might say I haven’t said this was going bust - I contradicted a few that were after the going concern/covenants statement - and also never tried to infer a placing was coming (I’ve always maintained that the convertible bondholder would most likely extend further money - outside of the Tap facility which is for asset development only, not the costs of running the PLC - but likely on revised terms for the existing notes (only an opinion and remains to be seen if that happens or not).
I’ve also not said that they won’t get a JV - just that if they do my expectations (opinion) would be a staged one, with a carry for drilling initially, rather than a load of cash up front.
Just for clarification, as some seem to have been putting words into my mouth (some of the negative accounts posting on here). Anyway, I’ll leave you all alone on here - as I originally said, I’m not looking to cause disruption on here and if I do comment at all, it is on Twitter.

Shouston - you seem to post more about me than you do about this company! I’ve refrained from posting on here before as it isn’t worth all the disruption it causes - LSE and Donald Leggatt (head of investor relations for LSE) confirmed that they’re happy that I only have one ID, and only ever have had one ID. If you really want me to start posting on here and sharing my views on COPL, then I’m more than happy to - although from what I’ve seen when I occasionally look on here there is already enough disruption and discussion about posters (from both bulls and bears), rather than the company itself! I rarely post on LSE these days - due to a lot of the forums having more arguments than actual discussion/debate on the company itself - but when I occasionally do, it tends to be on companies I’m invested in.

And a terrible way to assess what a company might be worth…

So none of that cash is already committed to paying for the H2 well? Plus of course they hold that cash balance as a result of the debt they’ve taken on to finance development, such as drilling H2!

SmoothOperator - that cash value is a red herring, look at what is committed for the current drill that is underway. Plus the debt level! They have enough for this drill but if this one was to go wrong they’ll be in trouble. Can’t just compare cash in the bank to market cap - I always cringe when I see so many PIs doing so!

In line with my expectations, no nasty surprises, but also nothing that made me go ‘wow’ either! All down to this drill in terms of the future success or failure of this company now.

Are you taking into account Elgood going offline from around last November - which is part of the reason the share price has dropped so much anyway? Current Blythe production of 15.9mmscf/d appears to be within the previously guided range of 15-20mmscf/d?

Exactly as expected in terms of the net loss that is shown due to write downs. Cash of over £32 million on March 15 looks decent - given likely payments relating to Stamford and getting this current drill underway, versus cash as at year end.

My main concern with the results is that people take them badly due to potential asset writedowns - although obviously Stamford won’t be included in that, the impact of the windfall taxes will be. Sometimes even though it is non-cash write down, people react to the impact on declared profit (this will likely show a net loss). Cash flow is obviously far more indicative, but sometimes isn’t something people look at - just the headline figure.

Something closer to the Norwegian model would be very welcome. Great example of a company that is taking it in both from taxes, as well as doing well from investment in its assets (a percentage of which are nationalised so everyone benefits from the high prices we’ve had). Any change on sentiment for the oil and gas industry in the U.K. is welcome though.

Don’t think anyone was really expecting anything in the budget? Good news that they’re considering a change though and recognising that they need to do something now prices have dropped back significantly and many companies have pulled investment. This is now my largest holding and happy to see where it goes longer term from a 278p average.

Probably big news if it happens and depending on the details and floor price!
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/treasury-windfall-tax-price-floor-budget-energy-profits-levy

Big news if it happens, and depending on the exact details and floor price:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/treasury-windfall-tax-price-floor-budget-energy-profits-levy

Pretty sure there has been no change of administrator for London Oil and Gas - it would be stated on Companies House if there had been. It did change for London Power Corporation though, which has an equity stake in LOG. Administration of LOG was fairly recently extended until mid Dec 2024, for targeted completion of that process (barring any further court approved extensions).

Even after the drop it’s still trading at a 50% premium to the NAV that will be returned to shareholders, as stated in the RNS, net proceeds from the sale will be £500k - if that doesn’t go through the company will be placed into administration. Current value is around 1p per share - which is what you will get back post sale completion and receipt of funds.