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Not sure why you think PE only applies to dividend investors - surely they would be looking at the yield? PE is just one of many measures of looking at how cheap, or otherwise, a company is compared to others in the same sector, but on its own doesn't really tell us a lot - typically for this sector you would also consider EV/flowing barrel; EV/2P reserves; EV/DACF; plus PEG is also useful to gauge what direction the company is heading in, in terms of growth and how the market is valuing that.
PE is not projected earnings! It stands for price/earnings and is a ratio - basically the multiple at which the current share price is trading at compared to EPS (earnings per share - which is net profit attributable to equity holders divided by the number of shares in issue). In terms of speculating on a PE ratio which is suitable to value a business, you also have to take into account the longevity of the income stream and resulting net profit from those operations - some businesses appear to be very cheap on a PE basis, but often that is down to the assets having a shorter life span (especially in oil and mining).
They’ve been looking for a while to farm out the Egypt asset to enable faster development and increase production towards an initial target of 12,000bopd (obviously the farm in partner gets a share of that so a lot will come down to exactly what deal, if any, they end up securing). I believe that the change to the fiscal terms will be the trigger though which enables a farm out to happen.
I covered it more as a longer term investment rather than a trade to 140p (although no doubt some will cash in if it gets there) - it’s one that I’ve been covering as a buy since it was 5p and have been a holder myself for prolonged periods since those days (currently I’m not as already have a fair bit of O&G exposure but am seriously considering taking a position again now).
At somewhere around the top end of that range though they just might get enough shareholder support if a deal was on the table - but I still think most investors would be disappointed, especially if oil prices behave as predicted over the next few years! Certainly a far cry than where it was at times back when it was SOCO, in terms of the SP!
That would be low for 60 million barrels of 2P (assuming the Egypt upgrade is as expected) - when compared to what is being paid in other deals at the moment, and given that the Thai oil sells at a premium to Brent? Could do with an improved PSC in Egypt, as other companies have recently renegotiated. Personally wouldn’t be happy if it sold for anywhere near as low as the amount you mention - when you also consider what they paid Merlon when oil wasn’t much higher than it is now. I do see a possibility though that rather than farming into Egypt, an interested party might just try and take the whole company at a discount.
Not sure how the latest VW news on changing its battery supplier might change things, but I’m sure I recall that earlier last year they were looking to increase nickel in their batteries from 65% to 80%? I also remember them employing an agency in the latter part of last year with the purpose of ensuring their supply of raw battery materials was as ethical and environmentally friendly as possible (which would seem to count out the Tsingshan process).
More than that I believe, closer to 3-4%. News has been knocking around since around lunchtime UK time, but surprised it didn’t have more impact on the nickel price and hadn’t seen it discussed in relation to HZM (although I mainly watch Twitter and so it may already have been posted here earlier).
I think people often get confused by a lot of these II holdings and fail to realise that many of those holdings are just proxy holdings on behalf of PIs - such as Interactive Investor and a Hargreaves Lansdown, and they’re not holding on their own account!
Hard to know without seeing the specifics but I would guess it relates to something that was recorded as a cost but which could/should actually have been capitalised as an asset. Sometimes different companies account for the same thing in different ways- for example, some change R&D as a cost on the P&L account, others record it as an increase in asset value (it’s why Aston Martin was able to float at such a high market cap and looked competitive against Ferrari on a PE basis, as they record R&D in different ways).
The more I look at this at the current market cap the more I think there is a chance that someone could make a bid for the company - more so than doing a deal to farm into the Egypt assets. Given the 2P reserves here and the amount that other assets are now fetching (even the gas assets CNE just acquired went for $6/boe) it might make more sense for any party interested in El Fayum to just make a bid for the whole company. The management here are also getting on a bit now and might take that option. Possible a bid as low as 45-50p could be enough, although at that price the buyer would be getting a really good deal.
You can't short them in Poland - certainly not that I've been able to find anyway. Looked into it a couple of weeks back as would have been the perfect arbitrage play - too perfect in fact and hence why you can't do it, as is often the case when you spot these opportunities!
It was unborrowable on IG and had been for as long as I’ve been watching it, so there will have been far more longs - same applies to most of the smaller stocks they offered and it is rare you’re able to short any of them with IG. You also have to consider that IG won’t necessarily have hedged all of the SB and CFD positions in the real market anyway (especially where the longs offset any shorts anyway and meant that the only risk to hedge was net long). I’m currently holding some via an IG CFD - the rise to 100% margin has no impact on me but I will need to look to move them to another account before the end of the month.
Is Borgo still about? Was always entertaining on the FI drills, although often wrong and seemed to have heard the opposite ‘rumours’ to those which I’d heard!
I wonder if that is the equity component of the financing done now? Would be strange for IIs to participate if they expect further equity dilution in a few months to close financing. This RNS also doesn’t talk about the likelihood of the remaining money including a placing/equity funding, as previous ones have done. The money from this placing is going towards the project Capex of it is for pre-construction work and longer lead items. Hopefully that’s the last dilution we see!
That was good timing as literally just looked on here for the first time today and spotted your post! I emailed TM directly as I had concerns about the recent selling in light of the delays to the payment being received, and had wondered if Aeturnum were actually selling but without issuing any TR1s. TM replied though that the company had no reason to believe they had sold any shares (ARS will have access to the shareholder register of course), and I'm sure he won't mind me quoting that exact part of the email: "AE are locked in under the SPA terms until after the IPO of PT WIN and like all large shareholders needs to notify the market when they move through certain levels. We have no reason to believe they have sold any shares." My concern now though would be as to whether that lock-in still applies - I would assume it doesn't - and whether Aeturnum might sell any of its holding, plus of course the need for further working capital for ARS and where/how that will be raised and on what terms.