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Recently bought a few here at 16p as I like the prospects on Canje, even though the Westmount stake in the drill is small it is still potentially significant for a company of this size. I see the four well carry as being very attractive, as well as the fact that Exxon are the operator, and where the field is geographically, as in the success case I can see a reasonably quick route to production.
That credit facility (depending on the exact terms/length) also reduces the potential dilution from any equity raise, plus it sounds as though any equity component may even just end up being a subscription anyway with one large investor, rather than an open placing. That was my reading of today's update anyway - certainly not selling and if it was to drift lower then I may well add more as I see the risks as being further reduced.
For the last six month period should still have been around £690 million by my calculations even without Direct Energy (given that sold on a 7.9x annual EBITDA multiple - so implies £180 million for a six month period). Plus paying down a big chunk will make a significant difference to the £129 million net financing cost for the six month period as well. So I see the disposal as putting the company in a much stronger position going forwards.
You need to remember that a lot of these interviews and other PR is paid for by the company - even though that fact isn't always declared as it should be, although many PR outlets do state it in their terms and conditions or similar on their websites. That means that the questions being asked are usually vetted and approved, and why you generally tend to only get a positive spin and no real hard-hitting questions that through the interviewee completely off guard! There are a few though who do it on the basis that they can ask whatever question they like - pretty sure that Crux Investor is one of them, but is also why a lot of AIM CEOs won't go on his show! I actually like David Bramhill and have a lot of time for him, based on the dealings that I've had with him personally.
Hopefully they will ask him about the leaks - such as the placings - and what measures the company has taken to ensure that doesn’t happen again! Would certainly be on my list of questions if I was interviewing him. Will be good to hear more on the B-1 drill though and whether this sidetrack was all part of the original plan anyway - should be plenty that he can say on that front but which isn’t price sensitive
Is it a paid for video interview - ie UJO have paid for the promotion as many of these interviews are? If that is the case then it’s unlikely to tell us a lot and often the questions on these types of things are pre-approved anyway.
I would argue that it is far better to have loaned this money to Egdon, at a rate of interest which favours UJO and secured against an asset, than it would have been to risk any potential delays to the project in the event that the operator had struggled to raise the funds themselves via equity. I can’t see why some people are so upset over this deal!
Oiler87 - Serenity was actually drilled closer to the border between the licences than it should have been, but appears as though no further action will be taken. That means it was pretty much guaranteed to show connection to Tain - what is important is that the reservoir thickens as you move further away from the Tain acreage, as the modelling suggests that it should do.
Fastfood - they need to appraise Serenity further to the west as the drill they did was very close to Tain (too close in fact, but hopefully no further action will be taken as a result of that!). It all comes down to whether or not the reservoir thickens as you move further west within the Serenity licence as that will determine the potential volumes of STOIIP, with the reservoir quality etc giving the recoverable reserves/resources that could be there.
Austin - I added a bit more at 0.11p via IG, only got a couple of grand in here, but I still like to know what I’m investing in and as much detail as possible. I don’t follow U.K. onshore oil that closely, but have been investing in the oil sector for over a decade. A lot now rides on this sidetrack - it needs to be good and to produce a decent flow result, as from what I can see from the various diagrams, it should be targeting a part of the KA formation where they would expect an optimal result, or close to that.
Spike - the speed at which they’ve decided to crack straight on with the sidetrack also suggests to me that it was always in their plans (as per the presentation diagrams last year), otherwise they would have taken more time to way up their options and analyse what they’d found on this drill so far. You don’t just drill a sidetrack on a whim - plus the fact that the RBD release states that they expect to flow test this sidetrack, so they have a fair idea of exactly what they are targeting (drilling back towards A-1/A-2 where the expectation is for better reservoir quality in the KA. That’s my reading anyway from my limited knowledge here - I only have a small position so am not as well read on all the details as some will be!
The well locations diagram from a year or so ago actually shows B-1 with a potential sidetrack, as far as I can see from the presentations? So not exactly unexpected that this is happening - although obviously it would have been good to have found oil in the Cadeby. The reservoir formations seem to suggest that this drill may have been located where they thought was optimal for Cadeby, whilst still expecting to hit gas in the Kirkham Abbey?
Exactly - especially when you consider the market cap levels of some miners on AIM that in some cases are no closer to having a producing mine than they were ten years ago! If there is a delay then it isn't exactly uncommon, and doesn't exactly change the long term prospects if this makes it to production.
Maybe the wrong move but I've added again - wasn't going to but also never thought I would be buying at 5.5p either! Annoying as a fair amount of profit here has evaporated over the past few days and my recent purchases around the 7p area are well underwater. It has dropped a lot today on not a massive volume though - higher than normal but still only a couple of per cent of shares in issue actually traded.