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Entirely up to you what you believe - if you’d rather take the word of those who spent all weekend posting that BP had taken the placing and that the SP was going to rocket on Monday morning, then that is up to you - everything I stated about BP not taking the placing has been proven correct (as anyone who could actually read an RNS will also have known).
There are some extra shares in addition to the placing ones (around 650,000), but no way of knowing if they held those prior to the placing or after it (only holdings in excess of 3% would be notifiable, hence it states no previous position). The TR1 relates to the date on which the placing shares were admitted to trading (Dec 9) and Bybrook took all 14.285 million of those.
Wasn’t exactly an unexpected TR1 - given that the RNS on Friday announced that they’d taken all of the placing (an amount of shares previously stated in the Nov 8 RNS as being taken by Bybrook), and those shares were admitted to trading on Monday, so Bybrook had 48 hours from then to submit their TR1.
Fairdealer20 post at 08:46 on Dec 8: ‘Stick to the facts!! BP and co. have decided to complete the placing agreement at a value virtually 90% above Friday's close.
Do you seriously believe this conglomerate are not in possession information to support that investment, and using your twisted logic, they are throwing money down a "Black hole", in this case one full of Petro-carbons??
If you do believe, maybe an appointment with a neuro-surgeon is advisable.’
Not quite sure how you figure out that I work for TW - I contribute to his website as a freelance writer and can cover any company that I choose, long or short! Quite often my pieces have contradicted his views on companies. Anyway, believe what you like - maybe try commenting on the company itself and the fundamentals, rather than spending so much time commenting on posters like me, after all, it is a discussion board to talk about I3 Energy!
Harhoo, As I've said before, no short position - would happily declare if I did have one as I would be sat on a very nice profit on it! Having previously been invested here for quite some time, until they managed to completely screw up Liberator - which is what long term investors bought in here for - it is a company I've done a lot of research on, including having read the CPR documents etc.
tonynostrum, they are planning to drill a single production well instead of Phase 1 development as originally planned. They need to have obtained funding (not necessarily via a senior loan, that was just one option) for that by April in order to comply with the terms of the junior loan.
I struggle to see any sort of sustained rise until such time as funding for a drill programme is announced, whatever form that comes in. The risk is that it comes via equity, which at this market cap wouldn't be good for existing holders. There is also a chance of a farm out for Serenity, with carried drills. It also needs to have found funding for the proposed single Liberator East production well by April (the original proposed senior facility of around $100 million won't happen - that was based on reserves and a larger development, although it might manage to arrange alternative debt funding for that, dependent on the cost and the estimated reserves present at that part of the field, and whether they support an RBL deal). Until all of that is cleared up, I expect the market will remain focussed on the funding, rather than potential of the assets - although the share price will probably remain volatile as it is now at a market cap level where it is easy to pump it. Whatever people claim, Liberator failure was a disaster, as that was due to go into production next year and would have provided the free cash flow needed to fund the exploration/appraisal of Serenity and Liberator West in the future. All in my opinion of course.
If RRE/Repsol did employ that strategy I would expect them to do some sort of deal with the junior debt holders. Possible that Repsol could farm into Serenity - can’t see any other large party being that interested in doing so given the ties to Tain and likely need to develop it alongside Repsol/RRE, assuming of course that it actually is a sizeable Tain extension, which will need further appraisal.
Che7win - pretty good summary I think! It appears their entire Liberator model was out vertically as well as laterally. That is always a risk with any modelling of this type - as was highlighted within the 2017 CPR (+/- 25ft vertical error in the modelling). It basically means a lot of the Captain sands which they believed were above the paleo oil/OWC zone, look like they are in fact lower down, leaving very limited amounts of sands to produce from (hence revised plans for a single well), in my view and from my reading of the data. Producing from thin sands directly above this paleo oil zone also brings into question the longevity and rate of production, without water ingress becoming an issue.
That's what always makes me laugh when all these anonymous accounts (many of which are probably multi ID anyway) are all having a pop at me - at least when I give my opinion it is done so using my real name, and when proven wrong I don't just disappear and start posting again under a new ID! A lot of those pushing this over the weekend, and late on Friday, are the same people who also appeared after the initial RNS on the second Liberator pilot well, telling everyone how great it was that they'd found oil - anyone who pointed out that it was estimated to only be 20ft of net pay (became 15ft when testing was completed) rather than the expected 80ft+ pre-drill estimates (plus what you could work out for yourself from the seismic mapping - which shows the Captain sands, including the paleo oil zone etc), got a torrent of abuse thrown in their direction. Many of those same people stated that they'd bought in the low to mid 20s, then suddenly they appear again and mysteriously are somehow managing to hold at a 10p average!
In my opinion, it is highly unlikely that a CPR would be commissioned off of the back of one drill at Serenity, they would wait for further appraisal to be carried out to try to prove up more of the STOIIP, and once that is done would look to get a CPR done to book some contingent resources (booking reserves could be dependent on progress on joint field development plans alongside Tain, if it is proven to be a sizeable extension of that).
BP have been here since last June - they were one of the parties who provided the junior loan (although it appears that Bybrook quite likely provided the bulk of that). BP did not take any of this placing - as some kept saying - and the warrants they were issued free of charge were as a result of them being one of the junior loan providers and a non-dilution clause amongst the lenders (if one gets free warrants, the others do on the same terms). Their involvement here is most likely in the capacity of marketing any oil that was expected to be produced from the now defunct Liberator Phase I, as they do for other North Sea companies. Given that their involvement dates back to June, it is hardly new news.
Not really correct as the reserves figures have remained unchanged since that level (these were based upon a previous drill - all in the CPR from 2017, worth a read) - if anything they might actually drop as a result of the two Liberator drills being unsuccessful. Serenity was a good result, but will need further appraisal, given the location of the initial drill in relation to Tain, in order to prove up any significant amount of 2C contingent resources (compared to STOIIP of 197mmbbls)
They’ve been involved since June 3 when the junior loan facility was finalised... They did not take part in this placing - they received free warrants as part of the term of that loan, due to a non dilution clause, whereby if one loan provider (Bybrook in this case) received additional warrants, the other lenders also got offered them on the same terms (hence the mention of contractual rights).
Devilbhoy - I’m not the one who spent all weekend engaging in personal abuse, rather than the discussing the company! The reason they avoid doing that is most of them are just pump and dump merchants who know nothing about the company (claiming that BP took the placing for a start!).
Not much until it secures funding for its operations and it becomes clear what dilutive effect that will have for existing holders, given the market cap and amounts that will be needed - as I mentioned in my article (which most criticised without even seeing the content of it!), if and when funding is secured, it could be worth another look