Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
Given the way the diamond market has been I wouldn't be expecting too much from this update and will just be happy if there are no nasty surprises or anything for the market to take the wrong way! Any forward looking statements that indicate improvements going forwards will be of more interest I think, plus of course any mention of the covenants (which are likely to be breached - just a case of how that breach is dealt with by the lenders). I'll continue to hold for the trading update and then possibly reassess based on what it contains.
They’ve also got a fair chunk of 2020 production hedged at a decent level as well (around $57). I also note that more than half of the impairment charge relates to exploration assets. Reserves and contingent resources also remain at a good level - for instance, even if you only attributed $1 per barrel for the resources, that still values them at around $1.1 billion - plus of course the reserves on top of that. Allowing for the write down, NAV is still in excess of $1 billion (based upon the interims).
Gary1960: To clarify that tweet - it was in response to somebody claiming that the well had been being tested for months and that news must be bad if no rate had yet been announced, hence my reply. In terms of the previous PR and mismanagement of communications in the past - I was contacted by the new PR company back in October, who seemed keen for things to be different going forwards. I remain unconvinced about the longer term here and the geology of the field - but did take some a while back at mid-4s based on an expectation of a decent 38 test result, especially given the change to the drill schedule.
Anything negative should now be in the public domain (including asset write down - which was to one expected, and free cash flow forecasts are being based on $60/barrel anyway, rather than the $65 the assets are being valued at), and always a chance of some positive news on Uganda sale - plus of course the next drill, with results from that in late March/early April. Bought back in at between 50p and 51p (two lots), having sold on Friday at 58.4p just to be on the safe side in case of a bad reaction to the update (as often seems to happen even if most of the info has already been released!). People seem to forget that most of what is in today's RNS already contributed to the drop from 130s 5 weeks ago!
Given this statement on Dec 9, I'd argue that today's news wasn't exactly a surprise and all contributed to the big drop from 130p previously: 'The Board believes that a series of actions will help deliver sustainable free cash flow. These actions include reducing capital expenditure, operating costs and corporate overheads. In 2020, the Board expects the Group to generate underlying free cash flow of at least $150 million at $60/bbl after a Group capital investment of
c.$350 million. Considering this level of expected free cash flow, the Board has decided to suspend the dividend.'
There was no way that they were going to get a new partner coming in on the terms that were originally agreed with PMO, given where the oil price was back then, not to mention how the oil market was at the time for deals (NPE, COV, EO etc). I don't think they'd have got a better deal than this - a huge name partner would of course have been preferable (but that would likely have meant worse terms anyway). Ironically, I'm sure some people will remember when the original farm in deal came from PMO and how lots of people were moaning back then about how terrible the deal was!
A second lot here, couldn’t see anything negative in that update and good to see the company being far more cautious these days after the 16aZ fiasco. Not looking to be a long term holder, but can see potential value here (as I did previously when I initially covered it as a buy in the 3p range prior to the big rise)
I suspect that doubts about the longevity of its operations are also a reason why traditional PEs don’t really apply here - you have to maintain that level of earnings for a long enough period of time to justify the price/valuation. It also needs to prove that it can generate enough free cash flow to return money to shareholders via dividends as well, not just keep ploughing it back into Capex in new machines indefinitely. Personally I see value here though and am a holder myself with a 5.5p average, and am viewing it as a leveraged play on Bitcoin price, as well as the fact it has taken a hammering of late.
Just the small matter of that one needing to be recapitalised and the lender having recalled the loan for breach of covenants! If it was that good you wouldn’t need to try and pump it on the chat boards for loads of other shares!
Not sure how accurate this press report is but it suggests that drilling would be expected to be completed at the end of November: https://guyanatimesgy.com/repsol-exploration-commences-drilling-in-kanuku-block/
Prop - maybe you should try commenting on the actual companies you post about and the fundamentals relating to those? All of your posts - as anyone can see from your history - seem to be about other posters or what you hope the share price is going to do, rather than anything of a factual nature pertaining to the business itself?
I certainly didn't report it - I only report posts that include personal, abusive comments or anything of a defamatory nature. All you did was quote some bits off of Twitter - I might not agree with you, but can see no reason for it to have been removed.
I’ve covered Serenity in detail several times within my articles - including the most recent one over the weekend where I’ve mentioned the possibility of a carried farm out (most likely with Repsol if there was one) to allow further appraisal, after which a CPR would most likely be carried out and some actual contingent resources booked (possibly even reserves, dependent on the plans at that time in terms of development of it alongside Tain and if a route to production was clear enough to classify anything as 2P reserves).
Yeah of course you did, nothing like a bit of hindsight trading ;) Why would you sell at 19p when you posted over the weekend saying shorters would get roasted etc and how great the news was - yet you must have bailed first thing on Monday if you really did get that price to sell, along with some of the others who spent the weekend urging others to buy in as it was great news.