The Oak Bloke - latest11 Nov 2024 10:04
I think a fair portion of this morning's rise can be attributed to The Oak Bloke coverage of JLP which was published on Sunday. Although he disagrees with the P/E ratio of 1 mentioned earlier he does believe that JLP has plenty going for it (making a number of assumptions). Worth checking out. Here is an extract:
How does it all set up for FY26?
Assuming Sable “in the next 12 months” comes to pass
Annual Report FY2024 - as at June 2024
Assuming Roan is operating at 4.5Kt per half year. (9Kt a year)
Assuming an $11,000 per tonne copper price
Assuming cost of production drops by around 10% through higher grade processing and higher recovery
Assuming the 30% share of Chingola Waste Rock begins 2H26 so 24Kt for 6 months at 30% share is 3,600 tonnes equivalent.
Assuming PGM prices have recovered to a $1,700 basket price.
Assuming Chrome prices have fallen but remain at an elevated $90 tonne (for 40% concentrate)
Assuming Chrome is now 2.2Mt; PGM production is back to 40Kozs.
Obviously quite a lot of assumptions! But all are conceivable and perhaps some could be exceeded as much as undershot so it’s not an altogether unrealistic scenario.
We do see an Price to EBITDA of just over 1 in that scenario!