Member Info for GabrielOak

Confounded, Hat tip...IMF re Trinidad..."the sector is predicted to grow by 7.7% on the back of higher prices and increased production." Nuanced, but I will go with it. TRIN is going higher during 2018: all roads lead to March ;-)

Thanks CRL and Confounded...the analysis seems to make sense...sellers seem to be gone for now: if you want stock, take it lower and shake the tree / or bid up...if nobody budges with a shaking then either bid up or wait for next market juncture. Here is to a great 2018. Seasons regards to you both and thanks for the posting...appreciated! GO

Chin up CRL...the winter months will pass ;-) Hoping all well with you and yours!

In short: I think he is following a plan of implementation where he is saving the cuts in effective tax collection until the end of the implementation process...of course, he always reserves the rights to NOT cut the taxes (unusual given plan agreed with IMF) or introduce the changes very slowly...remains to be seen. Nice evening all, GO

All good things come to those who wait...

Confounded, my view: Colm Imbert needs to get the Natural Gas tax (Royalty etc) up, running & bedded in (started 1 Dec 2017) before he addresses (be that: overhaul / moratorium / extinction etc) the SPT for oil companies... Follow the logic of it: Hey electorate...Tax revenues are crappy, we have a plan, taxing gas now, collecting real money, nice statistic, success, now we are overhauling SPT and the position is BETTER (more success) than before with Gas taxed and we will see more investment in oil with what we have done (More success x 2). I don't know whether that comes in a week or in 3 months when there is visibility on uplift in fiscal income...my hunch is the latter for an announcement on SPT. GO

Now in session...I cannot get it to play. Interested if anyone else can, or is listening

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Approves-Profit-Based-Oil-Tax-For-2019.html

Thanks for the document...Confounded. Having looked through it I am going to make a prediction, Timings unknown... but i guess 01 Dec 2017: SPT will be replaced by a Profitability Production Tax (not to be confused with other PPT that nobody pays): kicking in around 35 dollars: 25% of gross profit. If this is at 25% rate then the SPT step at 50.01 drops from 7mln dollars for Trin to 4.2mln dollars. Anything above 50 dollars per barrel of oil sold we are better off...however the tax at 49 dollars would be 4mln dollars, 40 dollars a barrel would be 2.2 mln down to zero at 35 dollars per barrel. Having scrutinized the document this is what I would do if i was them...keeps the populace happy, insures more smooth continuity of tax income etc...25% obviously variable but at 25% it sits in the mid range of their corporation tax bands... 35 dollars seems like the right place to commence and it is driven by gross profit rather than EBITDA where (guess what) there is a tax waiting anyway. One hole in my theory is how they monitor gross profit but other than this it makes sense (or some derivative thereof). Let's see... GO

Asset sale would have yielded 4.5 mln dollars but would have reduced the overall bopd by a net 217. Market's reaction: lose (GBP4.935 * 1.33 for USD currency = ) 6.56 mln dollars of market cap. Does that make sense when the asset is still owned, still producing profitably, can still be sold, and we never saw the move up in price of 6.5 mln dollars when it was initially announced? Answer: NO As the company is exiting the "bruised fruit" stage, as the debts are being repaid and as the CLN's are being eyed then the investor base and wider market remain fearful around TRIN....fear bias = pronounced downside moves and hard earned - limited - upside moves. IF (and it is a "I will believe it when I see it" if) the SPT gets favourably (another if) and definitively (a further if) overhauled (as in not just a kicking the can down the road)...then this could prove to be a powerful factor in the evolution of the valuation of the business. If SPT does not get overhauled, the price remains exactly where it is (43 dollar selling price after SPT) and 2018 averages 3100 bopd (eminently doable) then the company starts 2019 with a clean balance sheet and 6 mln dollars in the bank. Most importantly: with the fear bias strongly reduced. Theoretically, if Bruce and Jeremy announced in 1 month time that the sale was back on to a regulator approved buyer then I don't think that TRIN will rally the 10% in the first hour of trading (making back the loss in mkt cap seen this morning) showing the fear bias on the share right now. The needle movers here are threefold: oil price, SPT overhaul and the program of drilling that the exec is on track for in Q1 2018...IF these are sustainable positives then we push higher sooner...I believe the exec and the Board know this and are working hard to build a great business. One thing that will annoy me...if Trinidad does nothing to overhaul the SPT, then please, don't announce it if you are not going to do it, be honorable and don't let the immediacy of your need obscure the longer game of what you are trying to do. Its bad PR and it is bad for business long term.

I have nothing further to add at the moment...assuming there is a discount back in the price as CRL's commentary points out... As you both know, I like to assume the worst, get comfortable with it and then see the upside from there. GO

Did you have the double double animal style?

I have now sent a fair few people (from both sites) my sheet. The inputs and assumptions are my own (though I have had them independently looked at). Originally, I created the sheet to help inform my investment decisions concerning TRIN. Latterly, I have added to the profitability assumptions a piece around the SPT and the payment of 2018 commitments. As some of you have observed, I have wanted to get to the bottom of these factors...they are important considerations. The sheet addressed these issues for me; and as such I have shared it. As is always the case with these things: DYOR, everything I have done is to the best of my abilities. I believe it is a good rule of thumb...I believe that 2018 could shape up to be a great year of consolidation: we move from cost control to a program of upping the BOPD, the balance sheet clears up, concerns institutional investors / retail investors may have around CLN dilution will ameliorate through the year, with a successful drilling program the average 2018 barrels should be higher than my sheets (configurable) 2900 bopd assumption ((after asset sale to Range in Dec) and drilling program in H1), possible SPT overhaul with more emphasis on gas and less on oil, some other developments on offshore side...and no doubt more given the management / board capabilities. TRIN is one to watch through 2018. Clearly the oil price is important...I see no reason that we will not move through 20 towards 25p through next year at some stage. I have accumulated shares in TRIN since I started writing on this board...my contribution here is not a ramping tool as I have not purchased any recently and I do not intend to sell for some years. Personally speaking, I am in favour of a capital raise when appropriate to push the offshore drilling and revise the reserve scenario (great if not necessary!) Good luck all and DYOR!!!

All sent...

Will email you guys later. Just leaving Twickenham!! What a crazy match.

I have been busy on a spreadsheet that shows TRIN cash position by end of next year as a function of average annualised oil price. It has satisfied my twitch concerning SPT. If anyone wants to see it let me know. I will ping my GO email address. Broadly, it is good news!

James - do you mean there are some large buyers in the background when you say offers(?) or do you mean there are some large sellers in the background? Generally...if people are offering stock it means they are sellers. The rest of your text reads like you mean buyers. Thanks

gabeoak476 @ gmail.com You reminded me of something when you mentioned the conference we attended 8 weeks ago...

Thanks Confounded...good perspective. Any more colour on this? We also had TXPs CEO seeming to let it slip that they are being told for sure it will happen this time. I continue to hold regardless of the outcome.

CRL - I sent you an email on this LSE board...if you look to the left of this screen you can see a members section and there is an inbox bit...you can click on it...