Member Info for GabrielOak

Accelerated debt repayment...how much is left? BOPD definitely moving in the right direction Strong cash balance Drilling to commence West Coast Asset sale eyed What’s not to like...

If TRIN is a good story then the proverbial institutional buyers tend to help swing the equation...a lot This has been my experience with other investments. CRL - C is for Cahonas... GO

The capital F of Fear was 9.5p in recent past --- the FID in confidence is somewhere round 27-28P --- the G of Greed is around 37P --- and the D in GreeD is a Dividend yielding 50-60-70p on to over �1 with a credible partnering on Galeota and after a very good & successful drilling campaign. It is my opinion that we are discernibly moving along that spectrum and we should expect the share price action to move from Sell on strength to Buy on weakness as this occurs. Thanks for your post earlier - makes a lot of sense! Enjoy the ride GO

Esmerelda... In response to your question: As we all know you can buy into a turnaround story at a low valuation because of the inherent fear that investors have...AISI the metric for this is FEAR.....CONFIDENCE.....GREED. Where is TRIN right now along this line? For me the stock is somewhere around the 3rd-4th-5th Dot after FEAR... As we know - the narrative on TRIN is that of the turnaround. The post turnaround participation is often as follows: Long term holders resigned to holding on until death do us part...relieved that they are seeing some returning value to their very haircut holding Long term holders like CRL with balls of steel who buy a holding at the absolute bottom (on a wing and a prayer thereby reducing their breakeven massively) New and old Investors investing on an institutional scale where they KNOW that their investment will help turn the company around...the corporate event that sets things off right New Long term investors who recognise that the turnaround story is worth backing and know that patience will be required for the market to see what they perceive / know Short term punters riding the momentum who are there for a quick buck in the turnaround story Shorters who want to sell on share price spikes...knowing that this will (in all probability) yield them a good result owing to the fact that news will be sparse and that the fear factor is high enough that the moment sellers appear they can safely ride that momentum Intentionally long term holders who get bored / scared and perceive a better opportunity elsewhere Etc Etc ETC SO, while TRIN is still perceived in the FEAR part of the equation (though as stated above it definitely feels like it is moving away from this...old management overhauled, company doing what it says on the tin, profitable, news releases all pointing towards a MOVE away from Fear and toward CONFIDENCE) then there will often be selling into strength. AS we move to CONFIDENCE two things happen: those who want to sell, have sold Everyone else moves away from a state of fear Then: the instrument no longer has a SELL on strength emphasis but a BUY on weakness emphasis. We are currently in the no mans land between fear and confidence... When confidence settles into a shareholder universe then you start to see active buying on weakness and the share price re-rates higher (in my mind high 20's). Each iteration beyond that point, AS LONG AS the company continues to deliver creates further mileage between the FOCK up of the PAST, the Shorters, the short termers and the market gives permission for the share to be rated comparatively alongside their peers. Mkt right now things that 17P is the right place to be. The capital F of Fear was 9.5p in recent past --- the FID in confidence is somewhere round 27-28P --- and the D in GreeD is a Dividend yielding 50-60-70p on to over �1 with a credible partnering on Galeota and after a successful drilling campaig

Es...how you see it is how I see it. To not clean up the MEEI/BIR at this juncture when it can be done is to misunderstand - from the market’s perspective - the value of the positive message it will trigger. If management has a good alternative then great...let the market know where possible! But just to sit on the old time frame for rigidity’s sake with money that is already earmarked for the specific purpose (and therefore dead) shows a singular lack of understanding when it comes to making a positive statement on the company’s proactive progression...unless, of course, you want the share price to remain in the teens and susceptible to selling any time the price perks up. Shock and awe please Trin GO

...could solidly double on a sober valuation metric: This board is extremely light on speculation

And this on shale https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Is-The-Shale-Industry-Still-Not-Profitable.html

I am in no hurry for the share price to move...I am in a hurry for a quiet fundamental driven re-rate through the numbers. MR Market can be greedy or fearful in the process... Number driven re-rates are much more satisfying than the agony and ecstasy (think Bitcoin at an extreme) of greed driven baseless share price moves. Steady as we go...Gabriel

Quoting from Whitman Howard Report: "Whilst the CLN may act as an overhang for some new investors (it would dilute our RENAV from 32p to 25p if it converts), management have guided that they are committed to paying it down pre conversion or looking at alternative financing options. " At that event last year in London, Bruce was asked why the shares are so cheap...TRIN is "Bruised Fruit" was the reply. So, when does TRIN stop being bruised fruit and start to be an attractive investment? Right now in the Oil markets there is a clear re-evaluation going on as to what is an "appropriate" price....appropriate meaning sustainable...the glut (as was) pointed toward a lower for longer pricing paradigm. It seems that this is not sustainable...I point you towards 8 simple supply and demand factors: 1 Shale has to run to stand still...for every one good well they need 2 wells to replace it with flow that drops rapidly 2 Mature oil fileds (circa 35 mln barrels a day of supply) are declining annually at 6-8% with next to no spend on improving them 3 Replacement rates last year were 11%...world replaced 11% of what we used with new supply 4 Is OPEC compliance so high because it is actually fairly close to peak production for many of its members? 5 Shale business model is not looking good (Cheap financing wont go on and on) 6 Shale wells are expensive...and labour intensive...and pollutant 7 Geopolitical risks are not going away and the market has been very complacent about this 8 Global demand is being understated by the EIA and IEA TRIN's journey sits with this backdrop...oil is hunting around for its optimum level that is sustainable for purchasers and sustainable for producers. 40's wasn't appropriate, 50's probably isn't, 60's - 70's may very well be.....or not? We will see. Meanwhile TRIN quietly rolls on in a great year of opportunity...the balance sheet is repairing. Bruising is healing. The market is seeing what is going on with oil and rubbing its "but what about electric cars now" and "lower for longer" eyes as it realises that all the journalistic huffing and puffing isn't going to change the infrastructure that has taken years to build...23,000 man hours of labour per barrel of oil...hard to replace...the world needs an incentive...clue is that is NOT lower for longer...it is higher forever as price of extraction runs higher...until the world is forced off oil. What if nobody buys TRIN during such a period of higher for longer oil prices? Then...we are a cash cow for all holders with massive growth of cash flow: further growth, very strong balance sheet and dividends. The truth will out...it always does: Cash cow, Great management, Great industry, discipline on costs, strong balance sheet, no nonsense approach to performance, great assets in an arena that cannot be lower for longer...I am in no hurry for the share price to move...I am in a hurry for a quiet

Hi C...hoping you and yours are well? Don't forget that as that tumbleweed rolls, and as the days pass: TRIN is making great money. I do wonder whether the early (and complete) repayment of the BIR & MEEI frees Jeremy to hold his head high in any SPT related panel discussions...it would be a shame not to be announcing the complete amelioration of this debt in March...? GO

...from the update coming in March is that Bruce and Jeremy announce the closure of the debt owed to the MEEI & the BIR. They can afford to do it...it will be received very well by the market; and as a precursor to the paying down of the CLN position it should make every shareholder who does not hold that instrument breath a sigh of relief. I personally believe that drilling should be approached when the position is clearer with SPT overhaul, the balance sheet is stronger & the corresponding share price higher... GO

I remain of the opinion that all roads lead to March for TRIN: Ongoing evidence of balance sheet strengthening. MEEI payments not far from or - possibly - completely wrapped up. A good update on the hard work the company has undertaken to increase output. A possible update concerning SPT (my hope is the removal of the step level nature of the taxation system (not expecting complete removal!) and an incentive for new drilling that will be able to be offset against SPT payments to encourage / stimulate overall T&T output growth. A revising of the “bruised fruit” assumption applied to the perception of the company. An increased sense of the company achieving what it is setting out to do I remain long and expectant and think that we are about to through a bit of a paradigm shift. Anyone who reads what I post knows this has been my consistent view. GO

You may recall that pre the US hurricane season the discount level TRIN encountered was 6-8%. This is a good rule of thumb to apply to calculations. Since the hurricane season: Petrotrin’s discount that has been applied to its oil purchase price? Answer: next to ZERO TRIN HAS BEEN SELLING OIL AT A NEAR ZERO DISCOUNT FOR THE PAST 3 OR 4 MONTHS. This will have a material impact on the Quarter results arriving in March.

Mkt Cap: 282,400,000 shares X �0.16 = �45,184,000 * 1.35(�/$) = $60,998,400 By my reckoning; 1 year from now (assuming 3000 BOPD): 2019: Selling oil at $63 throws off $17.7mln net of all applicable taxes & given expiration of Call leg of the 2018 hedge...(Including SPT still being paid in full: $8.6mln) $61,000,000 / $17,700,000 = PE 3.45 Allow SPT overhaul: ASSUME $8.6mln halves = 61mln / (17.7+ 4.3) = PE 2.72 Same Math at 3,300 bopd: 61 / 20 = PE 3.05 ASSUME Half SPT: 61 / (20+4.3) = PE 2.5 Headline forward P.E. = 3 with oil at these prices Side note: at 49 dollars, PE Picture is broadly the same as at 63 dollars.

WTI at $62.8

Yes Weissy...just to focus the mind: At 3000 bopd with Oil at 62 dollars (for the year) selling with a 6% discount ($58.28) = 63.5 mln gross rev annual - 19mln for royalty / orr - 21.9 for opex/g&a - 8mln for spt... taking all this away from current cash (circa 12.7) and spending 20.4 mln (7mln BIR / 7.6mln CLN / 5.8mln CAPEX)... leaves the company free an unimpeded with circa $8 mln of cash to start 2019... Throw in a Regulator approved sale of Non-Core assts and that number improves by $5-6 mln(?) at current oil prices... Not shabby at all. GO

And don't believe all you read in the press...OPEC is continuing in // developing a disciplined strategy going forward. They are seeing what discipline looks like and as long as the composition of representative individuals remains constant I don't see any reason to doubt their discipline or resolve.

$28.2 per barrel in H1 2017 Bruce said don't expect this to go lower! Remember this though: for 2018 there is a further cost (paying back BIR / MEEI & CLN). Post 2018 the number will be around this $30 dollar mark assuming external costs don't rise with oil price. Very good considering that US shale is often not good at quoting their all in numbers including ongoing finance and big debt (yikes if interest rates start to run higher)...often a north of $50 number. My predictions for 2018: SPT overhaul (details as per prior post) in circa March 2018 TRIN just shy of 3000 BOPD run rate by March 2018 WTI hits $73 at some point in 2018 (Geopolitical snap plus mkt evaluation of supply demand metrics) TRIN pays back MEEI and BIR and clears CLN's a bit early - I am really focused on this one!! Robust drilling plan delayed a bit as 2018 unfolds...but then moves forward on the SPT and oil price move. All not beyond the realms of impossibility! GO

CRL - I do agree that it is quite something to imply that oil companies don't pay their way by all of them avoiding paying PPT, when: A this is not true and B look at the raft of other ways that revenue is being collected. I believe change is coming to stimulate Oil activity...it would have been dropped by now if it was not. For me...all roads lead to March ;-) Happy New Year to you...loving the contribution to the board...my new bike arrived after the last one got nicked!! Chat soon.

Hi JFK AIUI: Taxes... Royalty = 12.5 %. Overriding Royalty = licenses to state oil company, Petrotrin. (based off gross revenues sliding scale 20-35%). SPT = blended 22%...SPT is payable on net revenues (e.g. post government royalty and ORR(IMPORTANT FACT)). An investment tax credit of 20% of capex can be offset against the SPT charge for mature (>25 years) fields. Any unused credit can be carried forward one year. Marine fields (e.g. Trintes) can benefit from a further 20% reduction in SPT based on certain criteria. THE STEP NATURE OF THIS TAX IS A BLIGHT ON INVESTMENT* Petroleum Production Levy on production over 3500 bopd = 4% on gross oil revenue paid. Petroleum Impost = 0.3233 trin dollars per barrel. Green fund levy= 0.1% of total revs. Petroleum Profit tax = 50% (Tax losses can be rolled forward indefinitely). Unemployment Levy = 5% on taxable revs (no ability to use past tax losses). AIUI: BIR & MEEI are owed money for taxes from the list above (Not including the PPT) TRIN has about 195 mln dollars of accumulated losses brought forward (think corporation tax or capital gains tax losses). This is a lot of money to be made before paying the PPT and represents a significant asset! Clearly the SPT is like an additional royalty tax...and therefore, not PPT derived I believe Mr Imbert is very aware of two things: 1 > the chronic need for tax revs & 2 > the need to up (address the chronic under performance of) the domestic production of oil for the state refinery and for the increased levying of other taxes (as above) that would follow. HENCE the IMF. *SPT has been cited as a significant barrier to Oil investment. The opposition energy minister recognizes that it should be removed or that it it should kick in at a higher level. Clearly there is a balancing act going on right now because the GOVT in its BUDGET announced that it will be overhauled by end of year (the 3 c's of Credibility)...and yet: the country needs money now! For me, get vexed by this if you had planned to sell in the next few months...otherwise, relax, the overhaul will come... or it won't. The company has a plan to prosper in the current framework. We all purchased shares in a company that has always had to deal with SPT. If Mr Imbert is reading these posts (unlikely...and I hope he is not!) do you think he is more or less inclined to overhaul it on the basis of what we write? At the end of the day most are not Trinidadian nationals and the resources TRIN relies on are Trinidadian assets. My personal belief is that Mr Imbert is phasing into this thing gradually...as Confounded says, extending it as he recognizes that there is some SPT to come. He must also be patently aware of the need for the oil industry (11% of the Barrel of oil equivalent output of Trinidad V 89% Natural Gas) to be helped. Someone is selling last few days, yawn. I am in no hurry to sell. Here is to a prosperous New Year to you all! GO