The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Tidd...I am genuinely interested in TXP but your statement "Nothing’s changed and the company are still kicking out cash month on month." merits some comment.
Average Oct production was a healthy 1964 barrels at a an 18 % discount to Brent of $68.48.
Now Brent is at 65.3 and an 18% discount implies today's selling price of 53.5 USD: right in the Pain zone.
This is not a dig at TXP...it affects all Trinidad oilers and if oil stays right here it is a sober reality that an AWFUL lot has changed (as you are seeing in the share price) and NO companies are throwing off money...ignoring drilling offset and TXP oil is being sold at a real rate of ~43 dollars a barrel because of the effects of SPT...
So, in short, this is the point when ALL Trinidad oilers need to be picking up the phone every day to the Energy Department and saying WTF...if oil stays here we are NOT making any money but you the govt are making Royalty, ORR & SPT...do you want to grow production or not?
Imbert has said wait and see on SPT...now, hopefully he is seeing but to your point above NO company is throwing off cash now and a LOT has changed.
G
Mhow...
Put yourself in the shoes of Imbert & Co:
Some time back: Public announcement concerning the overhaul of SPT following an IMF report, overhaul of the oil and gas sector embarked on, gas companies start paying royalties, oil price moves into the SPT zone, Imbert publicly moves to a wait and see policy on SPT, oil price rallies...wait and see looks promising, nettle of the Refinery grasped (by the workers party), Petrotrin overhauled and becomes Heritage, the narrative from Trinidad for Oil is production, production, production...new CEO of Heritage appointed & mandated (presumably) to run a decent company which means increased production, oil promptly declines towards the "Kill" zone for many Trinidadian Oilers including old Petrotrin (not Trinity owing to the placing and consequent balance sheet*)...if oil declines toward mid 50's (depending on discount) for any length of time what do you think will happen to oil production, weaker oil companies in Trinidad and what do you think happens to the wait and see narrative??
*On the subject of the Placing...13th November 2018 in a PLACING FREE alternative reality: no drilling campaign, money outstanding to the MEEI & BIR, CLN dilution in 8 weeks, ultra delayed capex had to be dealt with in Q2/Q3 draining some cash, oil plunging towards the mid 50's...in retrospect: anyone else thinking the company has played a safe hand in 2018?
Furthermore, anyone who feels miffed to have missed the shares in the over-subscribed Retail placing can now buy a better company (at very near the placing price) that has embarked on a drilling campaign, demonstrated solid progress, created good future prospects and is proving to be run well.
Annoyed I encountered tax...
GO figure
Strong cash
Solid future opportunities
Expect an update from The PRESS that have backed Trin both pre and post placing...
That is a good update!!!
Cleared 3000 bopd
2 wells left to spud from the program into year end
Q3 solid
An offshore RCP is currently underway
What’s not to like!
The pain from the placing has been felt, but the benefit from the placing has not yet been felt and some time has elapsed.
I am sure the company knows this. The fundamentals are not just good, they are GREAT... the company is run by great people, from the BOD down...so I am digging deep for the resolve to see how it plays out...
JPJ
I started investing in Trin at around 9.7 p. I now own just a little below the threshold of 3% having come down from something over 4%. I was of a size then that allowed me to participate in the placing...the placing took me by surprise (as it did us all). In order to avoid dilution of my holding I partially participated in the placing (hence dilution below 4% at time of placing) with money that I had set aside for a tax bill. The tax bill is due at the end of the year. As the year has rolled forward I have been prudently selling in a way so as not to disrupt the price in order to not be caught out in December needing to sell shares in Trin with no buyers in sight...none of us, myself included, would want to see that! I started selling at 21 p and finished selling at 17 p...my tax bill is covered.
Confounded, Ross Annan, CRL and WITJ know who i am...over the last ~16 months I have sought on this board and the other one to put out reasonable posting with good information flow of my findings about Trinity and the landscape of T&T.
This company still has great fundamentals and I still have many shares.
I stopped posting and I stopped putting things out there as a good shareholder citizen (spreadsheets etc) for the following reasons:
It presented no upside for me and the contacts that I respected from these boards, I now know personally as they all wanted my spreadsheet...we chat elsewhere.
I no longer wanted to participate on Boards that seems to have attracted such a low caliber of commentary. I just don't understand it...if you hate Trin and hold it...sell it and move on...cut your losses or make a profit but life is too short.
For me, I know that employees of Trinity read these boards and I cannot imagine how their morale fares knowing they are representing some of the shareholders like many who post here.
Trin is a long term proposition and therefore what is the point in posting with any frequency?
Life is too short when there is no healthy debate.
I am posting here again because my name seems to be the reason that some are mentioning the share price is down at 15 p with no end in sight.
I am extremely pleased to see TXP doing well with its drilling! For me it demonstrates what can be done in Trinidad & Tobago and presents a really hopeful scenario for Trinity (who has embarked on a comparable journey in case we have all forgotten).
I cannot understand certain embittered posters continue to smash Trinity (who seemingly hold shares in the company WTF?)...these characters are really upset about the placing so exact their anxst on the shareholder base rather than talking to the company...Tracy confirms she has never heard from any of these people...again, pick up the phone? How is smashing Trinity shareholders on the Trinity board about a decision that most of them are suffering from any decent way to behave? Its not like selling barrels of oil is a zero sum where it is either theirs or ours!?
JPJ
About missing out on the placing price!
Oil is higher
The company is closer to stated objectives
its the smell of shorters soiling themselves wondering what to do when the press article fails and they are 5 mln shares in the hole...how do you close out that number of shares when the company is in fine fettle, is following the plan and is less vulnerable than you thought...?
Back to the drawing board gents (loose title) and think about where else to risk other people's money...
about the upcoming Q3 Report...
The numbers on BOPD are staring everyone in the face from the recent presentation, my guess:
July ~2480
Aug ~2580
Sep ~2840
So averaging somewhere round 2640 for the Quarter...unless I am reading across the published chart wonky<!>
My hope for this Update is:
something on the drilling (expecting 6 wells from placing to year end)...year end approaching; is this on track?
What the dip in production was about...? Pump failed and fixed within 2 weeks but dip looks more pronounced
That the production is heading in the right direction?
Good luck all long term holders!
GO bouncing back from some health complaints and feeling like posting
Losing market share to competitors like VCP...
Buyers come in on Friday and Shorter press comes out over the weekend...disgrace
Very stinky...the passage of time is making it no less stinky
Inaccurate and outdated article - driven by shorters...GW owns 20% (not lesser number quoted) and the news of shorters is weeks old. What they weren't banking on is the big holders (~75% of the Co upping their stakes) Smacks of total desperation..."please print something to try and get the share price down further...the stock is starting to go up and we need to buy our stock back!!" ...Well that's just great...these pondlife parasitic funds shorting a solid British manufacturing company while this country is going through a systemic change...what a bunch of Sh*tbags with no regard for the many jobs this company provides in this country...all on a hunch that the shares were "ripe for a cropping having gone up rapidly..."rather like that idiotic shorter 3 years ago...Lucian something or other...lost his shirt (and others theirs) trying to short this company...GO away and earn a proper living...SOROS...you are despicable
If oil is at $90 (WTI) then this company makes a profit of ~$23mln if Trin produces 3,000 BOPD.
Add back some SPT reduction through Capex allowances ( chipping away at ~$10mln) and that goes up
Amortize out the Capex costs and it goes down
BUT, it demonstrates the underlying possibilities of the business.
Current mkt cap = £67 mln
That is a forward looking UNDERLYING PE of 3.8
Of course the elective capex costs will reduce this but it shows the strength of the underlying business investing for its future.
Up the barrels produced and this gets better...
Key questions:
Is oil revising higher for longer?
Is the company going to deliver on its drilling campaign (delivery of wells and delivery of Flow rate)?
Is the sense of morose fatigue going to leave the shareholder base?
If the answer is yes to the above then the share price goes up
If the answer is no to the above then the share price goes down...
but how much down versus how much up?
G
Greetings SRS
I have stopped looking at the bulletin boards for Trinity so I (blissfully) have very little idea of what gets written on them. I still have friends that contribute on the Trin board and they let me know from time to time if there is anything of any interest that appears. Needless to say: the feedback is rare.
One of them told me you had asked for me to post.
I stopped interacting with the BB because it appeared that most posters were like Viz characters (mainly Terry ****witt) without the accompanying humour, replaced instead by a harsh (and in my opinion) unmerited & unrealistic bitterness towards the management of Trinity following the placing.
I have read and participated on numerous boards over the years and (apart from obvious exceptions) the Trinity Boards are the worst…there is literally next to nothing printed of any value and many of the characters on them I would never want to know so I stopped giving out info, stopped posting & stopped reading.
I still hold Trinity shares and remain excited by the trajectory of the company...looking forward to the direction change offered by the placing.
The interims can be read multiple ways depending on your filter. You can choose to bypass the direction of travel, zero in on certain line items and spin as you see fit (negative or positive).
Clearly the company thinks that people have misread the results given their tweet today…next year I think the interims will make for less opaque / challenging reading…and more exciting.
The direction of travel remains positive and my view on oil remains the same…albeit watching carefully for signs of price-sensitive demand slowdown.
Do read the Cenkos report and remember that his numbers are driven by $63 oil for the next 3 years. This report is a good one with some great tables…particularly table 10.
The BOPD charts on the company presentation from yesterday offer an illuminating pointer toward future profitability when you see which assets are producing (with what associated costs) for the company.
GO
The shorters are edging towards the pants browner chair...
Surreptitious calls to one another as the ploy has reached its conclusion.
Time to close out? Who will have gone first...who can you trust in the last few days?
Stinky
Having written a blistering (and offensive) series of emails to the team at Trinity yesterday evening I received a call from Tracy Mackenzie this morning (she is in charge of Investor relations). She is understandably very upset (with me)…and the insinuating tone of my emails, but also the very vocal and unfair insinuations pointed towards the company that she works for and is proud and loyal toward.
Here is a summary of this conversation and I hope it helps in explaining:
Definition of applicant:
A broker who makes an application on behalf of their clients within a nominee company, as they legally own your shares. These applications can be batched or they can be made on behalf of individual sub accounts.
Tracy stressed that many were given in with sub accounts: broker is X, sub account Y. (diligent broker)
Some were given in as a batch: broker Z with no sub accounts (lazy broker (my reference)).
**Trinity went above and beyond trying to find out who these underlying clients were with the brokers that did not provide them but were told no company goes this far and it was not possible.**
Every single “applicant” was treated individually by the company:
If your sub £10k subscription saw scaling at 27% then you were in a large pool at a lazy broker.
If your sub £10k subscription saw scaling that was higher than the 27% mark then this meant your application was in a smaller pool with a lazy broker where it was split around a smaller number of individuals.
If your application for £10k was honoured then it means:
A> You were fortunate enough to be a single applicant at a lazy broker
B> You were fortunate enough to have your stock held at a diligent broker
Tracy is understandably very upset that the company is being tarnished with a brush that she feels is so unfair in the context of the efforts that the company went to on behalf of shareholders.
When I suggested that the wording of the RNS could have been clearer concerning applicant she says that it was drafted by lawyers.
For some this was obvious (like the big fella) but for many this was less obvious.
I hope this is helpful for anyone who is feeling particularly aggrieved. The question for your lazy broker is, “why did you not submit my order individually?”
In theory, had all brokers submitted their orders in a diligent fashion then there would have been variability on the £10k and the 27% in an effort to accommodate everyone fairly.
GO ignorant and apologetic.
:-)
Calming down now...mistakes do happen.
Pragmatically, buying the shares at 16.5p is probably the right response.
Interested to see how the company remedy this
GO
D...true. So, as confounded says, buy at 16.5 p and get on with it. For me, it’s very regrettable.
JFK - it’s not their fault but their RNS was inaccurate and the mistake a colossally stupid one.