RE: $40,000 by the morning...27 Jan 2022 14:44
Hi Off-piste - hope all is well. Yes - the Fed has to maintain stable prices, that is their mandate. In saying that, the Fed cannot raise rates sufficiently unless they have meaningful growth.
If inflation is circa 7%, essentially to avoid negative real rates we would need to see an uplift greater than that.
No doubt interesting, and both sides of the market have a view, I think most of us think rates will be coming, but ultimately ... my own view is that they won't be meaningful as it will kill the economic recovery stone dead.
I think inflation numbers will start to soften after April, Jerome Powell left himself some headroom yesterday, and remained somewhat opaque I feel as has trying to find balance and hope by the time March comes some heat is out of the market, OR at least inflationary pressures may have subsided.
GL