Personally ... I don't think so. I'm sure such buy out discussions happen on all these boards. At least with these volumes traded, and the large blocks of trades after hours today ... hoping that it clears the decks for a move higher.
I remember that - when CTAG went south, he became public enemy number 1.
obviously, the SP has held well since Merlin 1 given the fact they came across some light oil in the formations.
Where as prior to Merlin 1 the SP was 0.4 if I recall correctly, with the recent raise you might think the SP might not reach the heights of last year, a few headwinds possibly, but on the positives we have a fully funded drill, permit approved, and a derisked play ...
In terms of hype, we have 41 posts ... on here, I don't think the herd has arrived from that point of view, I think the uplift we have seen is less from the the herd, as we haven't really had a spike. However, 1.35 in December would have been the ideal entry. I just think as the drilling starts, you derisk as it goes along, then you leave in what you feel is the right level of capital for you. The probability according to the presentation material is 56%. If it isnt successful then you at least feel that which you left in ... you can hold on to the next phase of the companies journey whatever that may be.
Like anything ... profits not profit till its banked ... whatever target that is for you ... dont be greedy.
The IRR on the acquisition ranges from 75% to 400% depending on the success of the workovers... if it acts like a small cash cow to support core exploration activities, whilst diversifying the portfolio, and improving exposure across investor base ... seems like a good move.
Cap raises just freak everyone out, which I can understand as probably all of us have been burnt by shoddy financing deals, but this seems sensible and worthwhile.
part of the new acquisition, is not only to reduce the CR burden on drilling activities, but also to help make the business more attractive to US based investors, hence the earlier listing in January that side of the fence.
Looking at last years timeline from permit approved to rig commissioning complete/ mobilisation commenced, it was 19 days.
I know we started the commissioning earlier to try and save time, but even if we just use the 19 days as guideline we are looking at the 27th February, with a possible drilling commenced date of the 19th March, based on last years timeline also.