Member Info for Fukurokuju79

Have to wait and see. They've generally tried to reduce as much as possible. Unlike many other companies creating shares like confetti. However if it's needed it's needed.

They had about 2.7million quid at end of June. Also depends when the drawdown plan is defined and available. Also depends on the reason for the closed period. If that generates cash or spends it.

Generally they try to be sensible but nature of the beast really.

My reply was meant to be on RE: RW Statement this afternoon

Yeah I read that too of but I think it's a bit vague and open to interpretation.

It doesn't read well but to me it means that the second set of bonds, which were supposed to be released or made available, were not actually created or distributed. Essentially, the process to make these bonds available to investors did not happen as planned. Given the ongoing discussions with NIU Invest about the company’s updated economic model, which was prepared in conjunction with the company’s Pre-Feasibility Study.

They've said that no issue with NIU.

Clearly the illustrated drawdown they announced within the bond announcement has set expectations. They shouldn't have released that which I think they recognise in hindsight.

Personally I feel it's prudent to not drawdown the capital until needed and to review this requirement together, given the changes in the PFS. Let's face it from PXC side that won't pay a coupon until drawn down and from NIU they will clearly want some sight of the requirement and plan as it's a lot of money. Seems to be more common sense than sinister.

The top theory is M&A of some form.

However whatever it is is clearly not considered by the company as bad news. I won't let my mind wonder on the possibilities as I've no idea in reality what it is. Best to wait to find out.

It's a bloody shame it's been going on so long and is over a period where they've released several pivotal announcements. I believe had they not had this closed period the uncertainty wouldn't have been a fraction as bad. I'm fact they could have easily told a very encouraging picture.

So I'm hoping the news is worth the impact the above has had.

That said, I think the price drop is madness. I'm comfortable if my view is contrary to the mass market tbh. I think today's drop is caused by the various points in my posts, FUD and tbh when a stock drops then that just makes others herd. It's only normal to want to not lose your capital though.

Enjoyable to watch.

I believe this backs up the view this sell off is overdone and unwarranted (in my own opinion).

Unfortunately, uncertainty drives concern, concern drives selling and selling drives more selling which is what we've seen today. Clearly the company and their announcements and the closed period which continues has exxaccerbated this.

It certainly hasn't helped my stock value! Gulp.

However it's reassuring to hear what I thought is the case reiterated by the company.

- Namely that the bond purchaser is legal tied into the $80 million and remains supportive. No issues.

- That the initial drawdown schedule was simply illustrative ahead of a PFS (and possibly they would have been better not mentioning it in the original announcement).

- That the PFS now being finalised allows the drawdown phasing to be agreed.

- That the PFS was delayed to work out various technical aspects that have been overlooked here (and imo by the market) by not leaching and the new process being able to process sulphides alongside oxides. Improving the feed quality, economics, bring forward the ability to process the sulphides by a couple of years and simultaneously proving the belief that what sits beneath the oxides is the real prize.

- That they are indeed in a closed period still and they would love to share more but can't. Clearly this backs the belief that news is afoot and fairly soon.

Enjoyable watch.

Atb

Regarding the coupon we have been told

Bond announcement

'the Bonds will be drawn down as to US$5,000,000 on or around 31 May 2024 (the "Initial Drawdown"), US$5,000,000 on or around 30 June 2024, US$20,000,000 on or around 31 August 2024, and the balance of US$50,000,000 in two tranches during the first half of 2025.'

'The coupon is payable semi-annually on 30 June and 31 December and will be payable on the principal value of Bonds drawn down. The coupons payable on 31 December 2024 and 30 June 2025 will be escrowed at 8.5% with the Escrow Agent, pending payment.'

and

Interims

'Initial $5 million drawn down, with discussions ongoing with strategic bond investor regarding the timing of future drawdowns (see below)'

and

Interims

'Following the publication of the PFS, we are in discussions with NIU Invest regarding a revised drawdown schedule for future tranches of copper bonds.'

So to me...

1. We have been paid an installment it's not being 'refused '.

2.Given we've only drawn down $5,000,000 that's about $425k coupon which I would assume is in escrow already for payments due until end next year.

3.The discussion about the drawdown schedule appears to relate more to the changes in approach as per PFS, rather than any issues with the bond subscriber.

4.It's in our interests to not drawdown more than we need. Before we need it. Given the coupon.

Personally think this drop is a massive over reaction.

During the development of the PFS they have changed a number of aspects of the plan. Bringing things forward, the processing and so on.

The finance is still there. The bond purchaser still seemingly very much in the room and supportive.

The rearrangement of drawdown can simply be related to the change to the phasing of the plan.

Have to wait and see what happens in the the coming quarter.

Atb

Dani

Not disagreeing as such here. However, shareholder value would depend on the mechanism used to raise the capital to execute that purchase. Clearly if ARCM were told they would be getting x price for the asset, and the proportional value was higher than the cost to buy it out, then that would be a no brainer. Although not such an obvious move for the minority holder in that scenario, unless water tight terms mean they couldn't stop it. If however we're talking about buying/executing that right now, through dilution right now, I think there is a case against shareholder value being the outcome.

Really liking the bots licences ATM despite having some doubts about another asset at the start.

If Zam and Bots are what they could be.l then shareholder value with out in the end. Just keen to avoid dilution where possible ATM.

Atb

Hopefully they buy it off us for 8 trillion gazillion and ARCM can buy the natural resources of the entire universe. Feasible and fair I think?

Who knows olderandwiser. Progress and prospects in both countries seems as good as ever to me.

While the share price isn't reflecting this you can look at this in several ways. One being an opportunity, or another being a warning.

Quite honestly the market generally seems much less liquid and buoyant.

I'd love one of my other shares to go well and to buy more ARCM if it can stay here for a while. Equally. If the SP ends up rising beforehand, I'll enjoy that too.

Clearly limited formal updates are a pain. I'm sure news will come. In the meantime my confidence in the assets, the partners, and the deal plus the circumstances at Bots make me confident ARCMs time will come.

Atb

Best thing to do Lantier. I gave in posting here regularly a long time ago. It became too tedious and wasteful.

The conversations are like a roundabout where all the exits are blocked.

The assets are progressing, we simply need to hear about said progress. If the assets are good as we believe they are, shareholders will be in a great position. If not, then we have to accept our own decisions.

No amount of argument or opinion will change these outcome.

Atb

I think the fact theyve found anything this early at Bots is a great sign. Particularly given the neighbours and the doors there.

I wasn't sure about the acquisition at first, but I'm sold on it now

I don't think that's a problem personally.

My understanding is that they want to do the PFS once. That they need to source the required infrastructure, and certain regulations require them to specify the cost price plus 25% of contingency in the feasibility model.

So they are currently sourcing said requirement items and seeking to be as economic as they can be by identifying suitable and well conditioned items, rather than buy brand new.

Ultimately to my understanding and belief they are seeking to get it done once and right. They've already got funding so it's not like they have to rush it out to secure finance. They can't start to produce until other pre-requisites are in place around permits (to make the process even more economic etc).

The current assumption in the annual report was that the cost of mining would be a little under $21 per tonne.

My analogy is that they've been working on building lots of pieces of the jigsaw, and aren't in a position put them all into place and show us the full picture yet.

Atb

Yes, normally. I agree assuming they advise when they start it could be this coming week.

If each hole is average 450 deep across the first 5 holes (total depth 2,250) they must be onto the second / maybe third hole by now?

Anyone got any info on zam? AA still setting up?

ARCM won't share xrf I'd imagine so will have to wait but no news would suggest they haven't had any major issues with the drilling so far..

I was anticipating a much steeper response today tbh. However as per my precious posts, the trouble ATM is the market is so subdued it's unbelievable.

Someone's sucked the appetite out of the markets of aim etc

Hopefully th rise will be steady and over the coming days / weeks

Hopefully the wider market pick up on this. The key will be getting new money to invest. People will sell on break even, people will hold. People will scale down on peaks. So need fresh interest from individuals to arrive.

They seem harder and harder to get these days on aim. Feels like the investor appetite has changed.

I agree though we should be higher and hope this is the way the price goes as interest and awareness increases.

Atb

I guess we all have different assumptions and opinions on what very minimal and what isn't.

To me it's very minimal, given they've managed to get construction financing.

Given their market cap and what dilution I see every day for much less value enhancing purposes. Especially given the backdrop of financing challenges generally.

Welcome to disagree of course.

Atb

Hopefully with the capex we see the development cycle curve happen in the shade price as modelled by the lassonde mining curve.

Coupled with the fact we still, hopefully, have some good exploration news down the line. It's all good ATM.

🤞🏻

Atb

Yes it's very welcome news.

I've just seen the release myself.

I think they did very well to get financing and to go about it and secure a bond, with very minimal dilution, is no mean feat ATM.

Well done all and fingers crossed the market acknowledge this event in the price in the coming days, weeks etc.

May get a bit choppy but with a low float you expect more volatility. Hopefully trending to the upside