Member Info for Fukurokuju79

I must have been fortunate yesterday with volumes to add a chunk at very good price given the NT issues people are having.

Bodes well.

Thanks for sharing.

Personally, I think I'd rather be the one in the ring and involved than sat on the side with a coke telling everyone how the people in the ring can't take a punch. It's not the final round here yet, so let's just wait and see.

I can't see where you're invested Noresco, as your history only seems to be posting on ARCM. However, I hope you do well if you have some investments. I hope everyone does. The news demonstrates how bad the world can be, and so maybe a drop more kindness and good will to others wouldn't harm around here.

Atb

One2one .... 'Says mr split personality of the year !...'

You're okay though, as you can have one personality for each of your accounts.

Yes of course, dollars 🤦🏻‍♂️😂

At 370 million (if we're going with the ARCM) 20% I'm calculating total of 1.85 billion, rather than 2.25 billion. However I think the calcs don't really matter at this stage. I'm sure we can slice and dice it a hundred different ways 😂.

We'll both agree the main thing is the JV gets signed and then we need drill plan, commencement and outcomes.

Plus any other additional news around the JV in terms of licence areas etc.

The values can be impacted by many things such as any changes with the minority stakes in the JV, any possible dilutionary events e.g. how they reorganise the option surrenders owed and short term payables due H2 next year etc.

I'm hoping for some news very very soon.

Atb

370 million. 🤦🏻‍♂️ phat phingers

Fulmar, I think what's being said is arcm at 30p would be about 330m with 1.225 billion shares in issue.

However for ARCM to be valued at that then they are saying the assets within the JV would need to be valued at 1.1 billion. I've not done the maths on that and can't be bothered right now. Depends if you use the 51% by AA or the full 70%, plus then taking into account the the 67% of Unico to ARCM.

It's always possible the 67% becomes more to ARCM in time and depends what % you attribute too AA etc.

Atb

Not sure it was the tweet or not, but defo wouldn't have harmed. That's the thing. Like I was saying yesterday on the drop. Little change in volume on low liquidity stocks exacerbate the share price moves (either way).

Then as it moves people on the sides start to take or add positions. Sentiment is a fickle thing. Easy to get fear when people are negative and excited when the tide turns. That's why it's always best to try and avoid emotional trades and if something worries you engage with the company or research a bit more into it. Helps remain objective.

Nice to see the rise today. I really believe we will hear very soon.

Atb

Whether he has real knowledge or not. I'm certainly of the opinion the deal is very very close now. I expect an RNS at any time in the not too distant.

Atb

Fulmar, I was waiting to be able to share exactly that so you've saved me needing to.

Atb

No one will really know, can only be speculation.

You're guess is as good as any. In my view the trade values aren't particularly staggering but with limited liquidity any change in volumes can make disproportionate swings.

It could be a number of things though. The prospect of drilling with the seasons changing, impatience and/or confidence in the deal due to ongoing delays. Certainly the cash position in the interims can be a factor as we've dropped since then. However the volumes don't worry me.

Whilst the swings are a nuisance and a frustration I just take it as part and parcel of this kind of investment.

For me personally I think the deal will complete and so I'll hold. The cash position isn't ideal, that's undeniable, but the fact they haven't raised already is IMO a sign of confidence in the deal completing sooner than later. If it doesn't then yes they may need to raise.

At the end of the day people invest and sell for a whole variety of motivations.

Atb

Bit harsh Subush, I'm listening.

I'm writing it all down except the 'copywrite protected' comments and I'm using all the nuggets of knowledge for a book.

I'm calling it 'how not to invest for dummies.'

The tag line with be. 'Gain a complete lack of any fundamental stock market knowledge'.

I'll credit 121 & 131 obviously. We can discuss royalties. They'll probably require them in the future.

Atb

It'll stop when AA are at the helm.

So it's just a last ditch attempt for them, especially given their legal woes.

Atb

Yep I've felt obliged to add here today.

Atb

Nope you're absolutely right O2O, EPS is a great metric to use when evaluating the relative merits of taking a position in non earning companies who use share placements to raise capital.

What was I thinking. 😂

Atb, good luck to you. P.S you must remember to post from the same one of your multiple accounts 👍🏻

Of course they supply all the tools, but it's down to the investor to determine their suitability.

How on earth can you use EPS as a metric on an early stage pharma, or a junior explorer etc. It's not just about blue chip Vs small cap, it's about the stage of the company.

If company A is earning £0 and has 1 million shares in issue Vs company b who his earning £0 and has 1 billion shares in issue, what does the EPS formula tell you (other than its probably the wrong tool for the job).

I can ask you to chop some wood for the fire, you could go to b&q to buy one of the tools they offer, and come back with a Phillips screwdriver. Just because the tool is available, it doesn't mean the screwdriver is an appropriate tool to chop wood. Even though the screwdriver is a useful tool to have.

One2one - your seriously telling me you use EPS as a measure on a stock like HEMO. It's like me using EPS on an junior gold exploration company.

Wrong market if that's a tool your selecting these stocks on 😂

If you fancied using it to compare a basket of blue chips your point may make sense. However for me personally I'm not a big fan of EPS for many reasons, and certainly not in isolation as it can be manipulated and impacted by a whole number of things.

For the purposes of HEMO though EPS isn't an applicable tool.

Lol pumpy, is that a serious comment or are you pulling people's chain?

You don't buy a company because it's got an attractive value in its shares in circulation lol...

If the market value HEMO at 20 million, they value it at 20 million. So if for example HEMO still only had 400 million shares in issue it would now be trading at 5p. Hence why existing investors dislike placings as while it brings in much needed cash, those extra shares dilute the value of each price per share for the equivalent mcap.

Also when you 'say less shares;less volatility' that's not the case either. Think of it as supply and demand. If, for example, you have less shares available be it through a low free float, low trade volume etc, but demand to buy (or sell) is high, then the share price is more volatile. The lower the liquidity the higher the volatility, as MMs have to push the price further both ways to make the market.

If I had one banana in circulation; and demand for bananas was high I would have to increase the price of the banana significantly to get the banana owner to want to sell it. Compared to if I had 200 bananas available but the same demand. The price volatility is greater with less circulation.

Atb

Ella "Another year of wrangles or do Anglo cut their losses?"

Are these the only two options you've allowed yourself to envisage? Can you think of any more....