Apparently:8 Aug 2018 10:15
Don’t worry about a trade war
“The perception is that there are two big negatives for Asian markets at the moment”, says Horrocks. The biggest is the possibility of a trade war between the US and China. But despite Donald Trump’s belligerent rhetoric, Horrocks is more sanguine than most. There is “likely to be some limited tit for tat”, he says, but “the chances of a long term trade war are very low”.
It’s also important to put this into historical perspective, as “every American administration has had some sort of row with China” but they have “ultimately managed to work things out because a full-scale trade war would not be in anyone’s interest”.
Of course, you might argue that trusting Trump to act rationally may be going a little too far. But if you look beyond the presidential Twitter account, you will find that “there is little institutional backing for a full-scale trade war”, with many in Trump’s own administration strongly opposed to any escalation.
Similarly, Congress will want to have its say, and is likely to act as a brake on any protectionist impulses. And the economies of both US and China are now so entwined “that tariffs would have to be raised to huge levels to significantly reverse this”.
However, if Horrocks is largely dismissive of the threat from a trade war, he agrees that investors are behaving more rationally when they are concerned by the second factor weighing down on markets, namely monetary tightening.
Read the whole of this article on the MoneyWeek website.