Member Info for Fresian

Looking forward to the next couple of months! http://www.mining.com/web/copper-bears-beware-strike-risks-rise-top-producer-chile/ Happy Christmas all.

Hi Tucson, here's one for you.... where does your model put Kaz when copper hits 10,000/MT? Lol ATB https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-08/-lottery-tickets-on-10-000-copper-are-showing-up-in-options

BOZYMCHAK RESUMES FULL PRODUCTION KAZ Minerals PLC ("KAZ Minerals" or "the Group") announces that it has received notification today from the Government of Kyrgyzstan that the suspension of operations at Bozymchak announced on 2 November 2017 has been cancelled. Bozymchak has resumed full production. Bozymchak produced 7 kt of copper cathode and 38 koz of gold bar in the year to 31 December 2016. ???

The copper output of this mine is small as a proportion of the KAZ annual production, but it contributes a large proportion of zinc and silver, so expect these production figures to be at the low end of guidance now. This isn't devistating news, but not welcome either. If anyone know what happened please post. GLA

BOZYMCHAK TEMPORARY SUSPENSION OF OPERATIONS KAZ Minerals PLC ("KAZ Minerals" or "the Group") announces that the Government of Kyrgyzstan has today suspended operations at Bozymchak, the Group's copper and gold mine in Kyrgyzstan, for a period of three months. The Group believes that Bozymchak is in compliance with its obligations and is in discussions with the relevant authorities to recommence operations as soon as possible. Bozymchak produced 7 kt of copper cathode and 38 koz of gold bar in the year to 31 December 2016. The Group's 2017 copper production guidance remains 250-270 kt.

Hi Tucson, definately a surprise. A few months back, before the various Govts and manufacturers set their new EV targets, I mentioned £10+ target for KAZ in Feb based upon EBITDA of around USD1bn. I think it's fair to say the new EV targets and regulations were unforseen, at least by me, but have had a very positive effect on copper price, albeit speculative until now. As the weeks have rolled on and the news is digested, the speculators seem to be justified, as we see China imports of copper up, largely due to the planned ramp up of EV production. Articles such as this show a real increase in demand, that support price increases with fundamental data. If copper prices continue to increase, I will be adjusting my target upwards. ATB https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/10/16/car-manufacturers-are-electrifying-copper-the-metal-of-the-future/

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/862987/Electric-car-battery-recharge-six-minutes

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-02/automakers-plan-electric-car-blitz-even-as-tesla-burns-billions

Good news, maybe an uplift?

This article is useful. It seems IF China bans scrap copper, it would be in the form of low quality scrap that needs heavy processing to obtain the metal. Still, this grade accounted for 300kt of China's copper imports in 2016... That's equivalent to the entire Kaz o/p! https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-copper-ahome/chinas-threatened-scrap-import-ban-jolts-copper-into-life-andy-home-idUSKBN1AG24F The real question behind this discussion is, of course, 'how high' can kaz go? GLA

The higher the price of new copper gets, the more attractive scrap copper will look. I think China's position, if official, seems untenable. Bwtfdik GLA

Agreed. Hopefully this will translate into a worldwide copper deficit for several years. $3.5 is the trigger level for R&D spending on new reserves. What we've seen is a speculative rally on similar news and a capitulation last week, but i think this news will drive the bull rally further. Again, proven deficit would fundamentally underpin the rally, but when will we see it?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-09/china-to-ban-sale-of-fossil-fuel-cars-in-electric-vehicle-push

Thanks Maxdba. Are your calcs based on volumes of shares traded at the different prices? ATB

Some very good points. The information on deficit or surplus is key to decision making i feel. This discussion led me to some research that supports the view copper is now moving into deficit, and there's not enough new copper resources in the global pipeline to meet the anticipated demand, hence the price is being bid up, and unless a substitue can be found, or the plans being made for a technological future are dashed, the price level should be supported. Bottled, I agree on the cryptos. I've traded Etheriums and now Litecoins which are not as high as Bitcoins (yet) due to being more difficult to mine. This aside, they could be as good a store of value as Gold, given the central banks just keep on printing and inflating Fiat ccy away. Besides this, there is a concern that some european countries may not be able to repay their huge and growing debts, and govts may look to take excess funds from their citizens bank accounts to settle their obligations, a la Cyprus 2015. So more reason to diversify away from fiat ccy. Would like to see more take up by retailers accepting them for g&s. Have a good sunday all.

Hi Bottled. Yes, lots to consider atm and your idea sounds a sensible one. I would like to stay long until feb. I hope nothing systemically bad happens in the market between now and then. What will you do next?? ATB

True. What effect will the return of divs will have on the sp? Peer companies have paid c. 5%. With rates low for the foreseeable, this will look very attractive for thise seeking a yield. More so if copper price is supported in the long term through increased demand and useage that is provable. Honestly, I expected this to go sideways from August to October, but investors have seen a strong future for copper, which is taking Kaz up quicker than I anticipated. It would be good to see a global supply deficit of copper to underpin the rise. Until then, it looks a bit like a speculative bubble. GLA

Yes, as it will become a required holding of ftse 100 tracking funds as well as meeting the criteria of a miriad of others.

Copper, the facilitator of the future, even in a nuclear winter!

... on the effect on copper and Kaz in the event of a skirmish with North Korea anyone? We've seen the price of Gold increase substantially. Thx