RE: Dilemma8 Feb 2017 00:46
The same question has been on my mind as well Tucson.
I too bought in some years ago when the sp was in decline, only to learn later of the major restructuring . I sold out at a heafty loss, but bought back in again last year.
On your question of how to put an appropriate value on the sp... I may get ridiculed for my simplistic views, but i think 6 times ebitda with a haircut for debt allowance is good for a stand alone mark.
If ebitda comes in around ~500mm usd that would put the mkt cap at 3bn usd, and taking a haircut for the debt puts us about where we are now. One also needs to include a premium for the planned ramp up of production and sale of goods at todays prices which is harder to quantify, but if ebitda doubles in 2017, the back of my fag packet says double figures this time next year.
Hope this is useful to kick off.
Gla