Analysis of Fundamentals and Valuation12 Aug 2025 08:04
Hello people, looking very closely to determine warranted business value and what follows is my most great and helpful analysis: Four year average pfp (attributable shareholders) of 67m, minority holders entirely bought out in 2023 so on that basis average pfp 77.1m, if we annualise and include the recent H1 pfp we have average pfp of 80.9m, equating to a 809 mcap if trading on a 10 PE. The second metric to look at is what I term net cash flow (defined as annual net cash increase/ decrease in cash and Ce with the dividend payment added back into this figure) therefore average net cash flow over recent 4 year of 31.4m, if we add back in the 90m spent on buying out minority we have average NCF of 53.7m, if we annualise and include recent H1 NCF we get an average of 67.8m equating to a 678m mcap if trading on a NCF of 10. If we discount both the average pfp and NCF by 20% we get 55m and 74m respectively and the middle point between the two is 65m, therefore from an owner's perspective nobody should be allowed to buy into the business for less than 650m, furthermore we must add the 244m cash and 27m investments assets to that figure equating 971m, therefore it makes no sense for an owner to sell below 971m. If we price the business on a PE/ NCF average of 15 and include the cash and investments figure we end up with a valuation of 1.24b (a fair price to sell considering great balance sheet) . Please give your opinions on this analysis.