RE: H1 202315 May 2023 15:33
I can read it now
Interesting comment from MF Weekly with their view of the pgm market pt,rh and pd all being in deficit but prices dropping except for pt.
Regardless of their opinion if the metals are in deficit I would expect some stability rather than volatility.
Deficits for all three metals in 2023 Metals Focus expects platinum to record a far steeper deficit in 2023, which will be its deepest in our series. Palladium’s deficit is also forecast to widen, while rhodium will end two years of surplus. For all three metals, this reflects improving automotive demand, as supply chain frictions ease. A lack of supply-side growth is another key factor. Mine supply in both South Africa and Russia will face their own respective challenges, while recycling will remain under pressure.
“In spite of these deficits, investors and market participants are acutely aware of the longer term headwinds that automotive offtake is bound to face as a result of electrification, especially for palladium and rhodium” commented Wilma Swarts, Metals Focus’ Director of PGMs.
“Additionally, many OEMs are still overstocked or partially hedged.“ Demand gains and investor interest support platinum prices Metals Focus expects the Fed to hold interest rates steady for the rest of 2023. This, in turn, means that key driver of recent rallies in precious metals prices during 2023-to-date are likely to dissipate in the months to come. “We see strong price support stemming from platinum’s deepening deficit and solid long-term fundamentals. However, platinum’s closer link to gold will limit its upside, once that metal comes under pressure as markets come to accept the lack of rate cuts“ noted Wilma. “For these reasons, we forecast a 7% rise in the annual average price to $1,030 for platinum.”
Even with a deeper deficit in 2023, Metals Focus cautions that palladium’s price weakness will persist. “Palladium’s weaker long-term demand outlook, owing to substitution and electrification, will weigh on investor confidence,“ Wilma commented. “We expect the average price to drop by 28% to a five-year low of $1,520 in 2023.” “Like palladium, rhodium supply-demand outlook concerns will impact its price.” Wilma added, “In addition, high stocks held by automakers and selling by glass manufacturers will undermine rhodium offtake. This leads us to forecast an annual average of $9,000, down 42% year-on-year.”
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