The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Big volume, but with buys and sells constantly misreported because of the spread, (as they have been most days) hard to say who actually won!
Going to be some sellers at every level. Just have to wait for them to clear. Ain't going to go up in a straight line! If people could invest for more than 10 nano seconds, might actually make some money!
What happened to 13.25p? Offer skip to 13.50p Think MMs keeping a tight lid on this at present. Very few large buys seem to get through, hence no runaway SP?
the Finn cap broker note from 08/06/18 :
'AAOG offers investors exposure to near-term, low-cost drilling in the Republic of the Congo with a mix of risk/reward from a single well. The TLP-103 well will be drilled this summer and targets three different reservoir sands on its Tilapia field (AAOG 56%): the producing R1/R2 reservoir, the discovered Mengo sands and a deeper Djeno sands exploration prospect, which have delivered impressive flow rates from neighbouring fields. The shares have decent valuation support from the existing producing horizon, while upside potential in the success case for the Mengo and Djeno reservoirs could be major. We initiate with a risked NAV-based price target of 41p/sh.
A Congolese private company, AOGC, shall be entitled to a 25 per cent. share of the net revenues generated pursuant to the New Licence. AOGC is a large private group in the Republic of the Congo and is partnered with Total and ENI on their new fields in the Republic of the Congo. The AOGC group has interests in all aspect of the energy industry and owns the AFric petrol station chain. The Company believes that AOGC is financially capable of meeting its share of future development costs.
Well go and find out for yourself if your that concerned! Not obliged to invest you know! AOGC role is explained in the placing RNS.
Has resumed. I.e. heading down. Back to 18s again. Useless Update, useless conference call, all too vague and uncertain. Even the die hard enthusiasts beginning to fray now. Been underwater on this share since the day I unwisely bought it! Give up!
I think you will find that Sister voted for the placing,, (which they originally intended not to do), but did not take any placing shares. They originally were a 23 percent holder of the 69.4m shares, if I remember rightly.
Sorry, 68m left in free float.
Roughly 94m of shares in issue are in ii hands, according to AAOG site, leaving 62m odd in free float. A fair few have probably been flipped by now, .....if and when they dry up, then likely to see more substantial rises. At moment sellers plus large after hours sells keeping MMs supplied.. I reckon the average for the ii's is probably around 14p odd (initial IPO price of 20p + placing at 8p. Most of them seem to have retained roughly the same percentage holding as they had before placing. Except Sister who did not take part,but may decide to average down anyway possibly, else left high and dry at 20p
Probably come soon. Just treading water at present. MMs happy just to churn at these levels it seems. Just about enough sellers to keep them supplied. Slow going though ... loads of buys to gain .25p but only a couple of sells to wipe it out! But more shares into sticky fingers.
Bit of a one sided affair. Largely small buys versus big sells. Is that cos it is still NT for large quantities? (Always was like it in the past), and very annoying too! With new shares in issue MMs should not still be playing that game anymore.
I guess time will tell. Did wonder if it was a way to possibly shield a holding from bad news? Preference shares get first pickings etc. But why buy them at all if that were the case. Or even a method of preventing an unwanted takeover? Who knows> Looks undervalued to me but very illiquid and off the radar for most pi's (at least at the moment!).
Can anyone make any sense of the these Director dealings? Thinking of buying in here, but not sure what is really going on re these dealings. Buy OBT shares, then convert into preference shares( not tradable) convertible back into OBT shares?
Buys and sells level pegging but bid rising? (and still appears 'our 'seller' not yet run out of ammo). Good news on the way perhaps?. Only 25% down now, ….breakeven in sight? (that'll be the day! ). Just get one of our projects of the ground, and this could potentially change everything! Bring it on!
Yesterday and todays buying looks more like an institution building a position than just pi's. Possibly Sister averaging down may be.? Not complaining in the least, helps mop up any overhang more quickly!
It does make sense for them to get a longer license ASAP, considering the cost of drilling TLP-103. On the positive side, both the old and the new license terms allow for AAOG to recover the unpaid drill costs from SNCP from any oil sales. Original terms were 56% AAOG/ 44% SNCP, new terms 56% AAOG/ 19% SNCP. remainder to AOGC (the local partner). AOGC were chosen as they have the necessary finance to contribute to further development of the project, …. already working with the big players ENI etc. ( oh...and run a chain of petrol stations!)
I think we are all in agreement the original management have not exactly done well by any means. Sefton in particular never made it explicitly clear that AAOG was always in the position of having to fund SNCP share from the very beginning (if SNCP did not pay up).
But with JB now at the helm, things look more positive. At the moment everyone is regarding this as a 'one trick' drill campaign, but if the assets are as good as expected then AAOG has the potential to become a half decent oil producer, benefiting from some extremely low production costs.
If JB can get the things on track, (multi well drill program) then future could be very interesting. The fact that 101/102 are still producing after all these years of neglect etc would indicate that there is potential here for much greater production.
Compared to 88e/MATD/UKOG and all the other AIM 'darlings' our markt cap would appear pretty modest at present for what is on offer.
The ii's after the placing must be sitting on break even price of around 14/15p and above, and will be looking to make a profit too. So 20p+ is not impossible at all. IMHO.
The delays unfortunately have meant lost ground on the SP, but once rig confirmed, hopefully no more set backs!
Just stick my tuppence worth in as it sounds very similar to Rob Terry (Quindell) and Ronald Duncan (CBUY), deals with Equity First. Basically CEO/ Chairman etc wants to raise some money. If he sells on the open market, and then issues TR1, investors get spooked, and suspect something is wrong with co.
So, passes shares to a company like Equity First, and uses them as collateral against which to borrow some money. (Just like you might put a house up as security). Always with the (avowed) intention of taking back the shares at a later date by paying off the loan. If the share price falls, then of course collateral value/margin value changes, and no doubt the loan company can cover itself by selling some of the shares. Chances are that chairman has no real intention of paying loan back, but just wants to raise the money by having the shares sold by a third party rather than himself, in an attempt to make it look less 'bad'. .