Member Info for Fortissimo

I think the 10 trading is what's basically left of the SOLG financial year... eg up to June 30th. In theory to get accounts signed off and clarify going concern criteria, they will need to have finances in place to see out at least 6months but the usual is 12months headroom. The $10m loan won't last more than 3 to 4 months and that starts from May, so just 3 months cash left at present and that doesn't take into consideration the $6m licence block costs per year.

Weird thing is, there are more buyers around now at 9.5p on SOLG than there were when it was 5.8p. Always the same with pi's... they tend to by on sentiment and not on asset value.

You'll find more buyers loading up once we pass 11p again. And then same happens... loads of buyers scrambling around in the teens to get stuck into SOLG when they could have just bought today at 9.6p.

Same on PFC recently. Stock was sold down to 10p... end of the world stuff... then suddenly buyers all loading up at 20p+.

Sometimes it's better to standback and ask yourself.... where will this sp be in 4 weeks time or 8 weeks or 12 weeks... not where will it be today or tomorrow.

Chinese may well end up being outbid by likes of NMM and BHP if latter teamed up, but I still think they would be quite happy with Porvenir and a few other licence blocks. End of the day... SOLG have had or having ongoing discussions with multiple interested parties and not all will want the whole kaboodle. The best strategy of any SR is to test out interest and see whether it's better to slice up the pie of just sell the lot in one whole transaction. Remember, Noboa will be keen to see licence blocks in the hands of deep pocketed miners. SOLG's 60 odd licences are gathering dust and going no where fast.

Selling some of the regionals and high prospect targets to say NMM, then Alpala to Chinese or BHP or a JV with both... it's all good for Ecuador. Selling the lot to one party is not necessarily what's best for Ecuador imho and I think there's alot more importance at a political level than many think right now. Barrick and Gina R ahead are already fast progress.

SOLG has to remember that Ecuador is a prolific mining region like Chile. It might not be that long before another Tier1 mine is discovered. That has pro's and con's. But SOLG's first move advantage has put them a decade ahead of competitors and a premium price is required based on that alone not to mention the conducive pro mining environmental that many of the SOLG licence blocks reside in. Not easy finding undisputed land and mining pro regions in Ecuador. Not easy at all.

When this is finally allowed to break 11p+... it will move fast back to high teens and early twenties. Williem is correct... based on the surge in interest in copper resources , SOLG should be back to mid 20's.

Markets are bonkers these days. PFC was 10p a weeks ago and this week tested 26p. Mental moves all driven by shorters and traders. The meme stocks are back doing cartwheels and the city suits don't like it one bit. They don't like the way that a tweet from a social media pro can add millions to stocks when they would rather it was their broker notes which they release to the market once they have fully loaded up themselves lol! But that's alright isn't JPM and Goldman's?? Fecking joke the lot of them.

If we announced the following :

"Key permits secured, including the Environmental License and tailings storage approval"

I think we'd be open season for predators. Far better to work a deal behind the scenes with interested parties and once an agreement done, then by all means announce the deal and at the same time, announce the permit grants as above. That leaves less chance of unwanted or ill timed or disruptive predator activity.

Now... just where are BHP going to secure the copper resources they need to stay a dominate force in mining industry when copper fever kicks off proper.

Reminds me a bit of when Apple entered the mobile phone market with the iphone. Or when Apple entered the mp3 music market. Both Nokia, blackberry and Sony's walkman got trounced. If BHP don't sort their copper resources/ ops out soon, they'll be the next Nokia or Blackberry of the mining industry. And the way things are going... it's going to be UAE or Saudi's or chinese that change the Precious metals mining industry. There's even talk of MENA region player in contention for Debeers as Anglo look to sell off that arm of their business.

Hotting up fast in mining sector and likes of Newmont and Barrick will be looking over their shoulders feeling vulnerable after that BHP attempt on Anglo failed.

Good point of on Adventus.... they were awarded their Investment protection via Ecuador early March 2024. 6 weeks later, they get offer from Silvercorp.

If you applied the same timeframes, then an offer for SOLG or finance deal could be tabled around Mid July. That would fit with the $10m loan deal as if you take early May loan deal and go on basis of $2.8m monthly cashburn, you'd arrive at mid July with around £2m left in the kitty.

Perhaps Bob has end date in mind and could be anytime between now and end of July imho.

If you look at past deals, many majors and state players like chinese prefer multiple partners involved to reduce risk. It's not out of the question that Bob could end up doing a deal which sees the chinese take 30%+ of ENSA and Newmont mining or Barrick taking the 60% and possible 10% for enami or codelco etc. Reduces project risk and makes capex pretty easy for all involved. If bob delivers something like that then BHP will not get a look in and I think Bob's keen on that.

The agreement is absolutely 'key' for any buyer as is the Enivronmental Permit.

When you look at the IPA combined with this, it's really robust and gives the chinese, or barrick or bhp etc a really solid legal framework which is exactly what you want when venturing out on a $6bln + project. And that $6bln includes SOLG's Alpala asset cost inc development cost for phase 1 to 2.

Remember, On Dec 6th 2023, when SOLG committed to the June 6th deadline and signed a pre agreeement, on the same day, around the same time, Barrick were also in the ministry signing their new l$120m commitment deal.

Out of all the miners out there, Barrick look to me like the ones that are likely 'prey' and gonna be swallowed unless of course they plump themselves up with some nice copper assets. Mmm.

Chinese in prime position but Barrick and likes of Gina R have ruffled some feathers for sure.

The deadline was June 6th. Some said it had been extended to June 30th. Quite possible that they did get some headroom but by sticking with June 6th date, suggests things are moving along as planned. Might also suggest that we are very close now to revealing the 'deal' on Alpala.

Game on now... clock is ticking. If the environmental permit follows, then it's open season. Looks like that is our only saving grace at present and keeping predators at bay. I expect Noboa has that lined up but SOLG are not ready yet for that to land.

Not long now. The clock is officially ticking and every day that passes is a loss to a potential buyer. So they better move soon to get best out of their bucks.

The reality is LSE moderators have been asleep at the wheel for a while now. I doubt this website makes that much money for the media team behind it but there is no dohbt about it, they would rather see nutters posting regularly than see somw quality posts but in lower click volumes. Trouble is... the nutters just put off the quality posters which in turn feeds down to lower page imprints and visitors resulting in lower ad revenue rates. And eventually... the end of the LSE forum and website.

The best thing posters can do is to simply avoid this website until they deal with the obvious nutters.

It seems some BB's are policed by LSE more rigourously than others... almost as if the moderators or staff behind LSE are invested and protecting their own interests on some stocks.

Shame they can't moderate forums more evenly and fairly.

But as things stand, when I log in I see more green lines than ever before.

There are plenty of places to discuss SOLG and just because this BB goes dead or quiet it means nothing negative toward the stock at ball. Some pi's think a quiet BB is a sign a stock is not liked or failing. But truth is... it's just a little mini universe parked in a space with very few visitors in grand scheme of things. It's meaningless really.

But from time to time, when there is genuine stuff to discuss... it's good to exchange views.

LSE need to sort their act out or this site will be deserted... well... this BB for a start.

I think the days of low balling copper / gold rich resources are over. That tactic may have won through in late 2022 or 2023, but now with the mining industry (and globe) in copper hungry M&A mode, it's now all about making decent offers that stick. Making offers that are so good that they make counter offers or bid wars difficult. Not easy to do, but if SOLG have a price in mind, and the chinese are willing to meet that price, then what can SOLG do to help the chinese secure it without the likes of BHP getting a look in??

At end of the day, it's not just about getting a payout for shareholders who have painfully held fast for 10 years+... it's also about Ecuador's future... finding a mining partner that is with them for decades.

Noboa will want Alpala sorted before his elections next year. Based on the $10m loan, it looks like Bob is confident is will be sorted by end of August as cash burn is running at $2.5m to $3m per month. So mid August is when cash runs out.

I'm confident a deal will be announced before July is out. No long now.

It's not actually BHP's mine. They only have a 57% stake in Escondida mine. The other 43% is shared by Rio and one other.

Reading recent press, Chile is one of the worst places to mine at present due to threats from left wing President!

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/chile-lithium-gabriel-boric_n_644bf6bae4b011a819c76d03

Makes Ecuador look like a walk in the park.

BHP must be desperate if that's all they've got to impress investors on copper outlook ops.

No wonder they were after Anglo.

Henry in trouble and gossip is he's on his way out if he doesn't get the copper resources issues addressed pronto.

Well then.... they failed on Anglo.

Where next for bucket loads of copper and gold then Mr Henry??

Eish, BHP did get a good deal done on Oz Minerals. Not small change at near $6.5bln.

But they really upped their game with a dart at Anglo. Very bold. I commend Henry for the attempt as it's really shaken the mining sector up. But mega merger/buyout deals like this are riddled with complexities. That's why they seem so rare.

If they fail to bag Anglo, then the market will know they are keen on copper so when they announce their next target, it's going to be harder to low ball it now. Henry has basically laid his cards out now. Chinese will know this too. So after today is out, and assuming BHP fail, I'd expect SOLG to be firmly in demand.

Anglo have rebutted and stuck with the 5pm deadline today. So BHP have 3 hours from now to put in their final offer or they have to walk away and tail between legs tell their shareholders they have failed to secure significant copper resources ahead of copper price boom.

Of course... after failing to bag Anglo... they could go and buy SOLG and secure a significant portion of copper and gold.

With metals boom hotting up and M&A swirling around, it's a stark contrast to 8months ago when it felt very dark under negative market sentiment and sticky inflation woes.

Now is not the time for buyers to be kicking tyres as the window of opportunity is closing fast. So without a doubt a different deal structure like a farm out / jv could see SOLG's sp doing cartwheels back to 30's and 40's.

I'm certainly warming to 'holding' for another year rather than a cheap sale or poor deal. 12 months in a metal boom sentiment driven market could see a 45p bid today turn into a 90p next year. Very easy for markets to get carried away.

The recent boom in market sentiment toward miners has been selective and plenty still lagging, SOLG included. But it's early days and TA followers know the impact of SOLG breaking through 10p and into the 11's... 14's would follow swiftly. At that juncture it's easy to track back to test 18p/19p levels. Throw in some proper market boom sentiment and back to 25's.

If I were the chinese or Mr Liu... I'd be keen to get something pen'd down now after almost 18months of due diligence... it's not exactly a risky play now especially under Noboa.

But there's still operational / development risk involved and a discount to benchmark prices is fair shoud a lower offer be proposed. But those that emmbrace building complex mines may well be happy to trump that low offer and bid war commences.

Mr Liu has had more than enough time now to dot I's and cross T's. Might be time for the chinese to move along and let someone else take Alpala on if they drag feet for much longer. Plenty are waiting in the wings... as Tier1 100% owned assets dripping in copper/gold resources are rare as hen's teeth today.

BBG,

If you want to know who Mr Market is, take a look at the 8.5 forms filed on Anglo over the last few days.

Whilst I don't dismiss the algo bot price suppression theories etc, it's peanuts really.

We are missing the heavyweight buying from the likes of Blackrock or Norges and co. These guys helped the sp test near 41p when they 'believed' in the PFS2 and Darryl as CEO.

Times have changed since then and generally Mr Market has not believed in mining stocks for a while. But as I illustrated a few days ago, seeing bids on companies like Wood Group and BHP's foray into Anglo etc have exposed the Mr Market for his poor insights and poor valuations. But that's more to do with the lazy LSE guys than anything else and poor state of the city post Brexit.

Now we have news out today suggesting Rio Tinto should exit london market / FTSE and go with listing in Aussie land like BHP.

Anyway, fwiiw... we don't need Mr market to believe, we just need a buyer to believe and then Mr Market will wake up.

There are pro's and con's. If you align yourself with Bob and lets face it... he's the man running the show and trying to get a big pay day for himself and all shareholders.

So ask yourself this... is Bob bothered whether there's something in the stock for the traders or day traders?? If the sp is 10p today but the sale or financial deal is based on Alpala and resources in ground benchmarks, then it's irrelevant to him especially if he's got no ntention to use the shares/equity to raise cash.

Now here's one for you all to ponder. Mr market currently doesn't believe much in Bob or SOLG... that's why the market has priced the stock at near 10p rather than 100p. We know the market is poor at doing valuations so lets look at stocks whereby valuation don't see to matter either but are doing rather well.

Lets look at Nvidia (US chip maker). It's just broken $1000 a share. Back in 2019, it was valued at $33 a share! At the covid low in 2020 it was valued at $50 a share. So what's the excitement about... and how can a company worth billions still rise 10 fold in almost 1 year?? Well apparently it's all down to AI. The market is happy to buy into that story. But hang on a minute Mr market... apparently Nvidia need copper and colbalt to make all those chips that you are pricing into your valuation some years in advance to say the least. So what happen's to Nvidia and AI if there's a shortage of copper Mr Market??? What happen's to electric cars and so on? You see folks, Mr Market believes the copper issue will be resolved. Now for that to be resolved, would mean mines like Alpala go into production pretty fast indeed. So here we are full circle and yet Mr Market doesn't really seem smart enough or willing enough to price copper or copper miners like they are with Nvidia.

So there you have it. It takes eggs to make an omelete.... but Mr market thinks they can make them with thin air.

Sooner or later this thick as sheeeeet market is going to have to fess up and start joining the dots properly. Pricing stocks like nvidia in the multi trillons (US trillions) requires some substance behind it. And I'm afraid unless they can say where the copper is coming from, then they best write down Nvidia stock as they aint gonna be making enough chips with not enough copper.

NMM, there are idiots and then there are proper idiots and redknight falls into the latter.

Completely deluded and can't read a financial report even when it's RNS'd to him.

Yet he still thinks SOLG are burning just $270k per month !

Eloro,

In the absence of a bid, they appear to be going down the finance route. It's simply a path that ultimately ends the mexican stand off. Sometimes you have to prove to potential predators or buyers that you can go it alone first or in partnership with others. That certaionly doesn't mean that SOLG are going to production. But it also doesn't mean that they won't.

Based on what we know of Bob and his merry band of CGP hangers, Irwin et al, he wants his pay day... just like you and I.

So it's up to you if you believe production is coming because he's seeking finance deal. But personally I think it's merely an act that is designed to draw out a bid and one at a non distressed price. One that comes from a position of strength.

Use your logical brain and not your emotional one. And you'll do fine.