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BHP and NMM can sit on their hands all day along. But they have to have a justified reason for doing that. If they want the asset derisked further or want the environmental permit before they stump up some proper cash, then that's fine. But it's going to cost them 50% royalty deal. That's the terms. You want it derisked... we'll derisk it but that costs money.

If BHP and NMM don't want it, then fine... SOLG will raise the remaining $800m via other interested parties.

The royalty $750m deal hasn't closed yet but it will soon. If BHP or NMM or another pitch something worthy of looking at, then Bob can put the royalty deal on hold for a small amount of time.

It would not surprie me one bit if BHP made an unsolicited offer to shareholders offering a low ball deal but giving shareholders a swift exit vs a potential 3 to 5 year wait. It won't win... but it could see others counter offer too.

We all wanted Bob to put BHP in a position where they either put up or shut up. And this is it. That 50% royalty deal will pi55 them off royally!

Thanks Pinot.

Interesting to note that 'exploration folio' gets a throw away page at the end of the presentation. That seems to suggest that they have no planned fanfare around exploration. So suggests to me they are focused on selling the entire business now.

The $750m stream transaction has not 'closed' offically yet, but when it does 'close', it will embed 50% of the stream deal from what I can read. Therefore, if any predator / interested buyer out there wants to avoid that stream deal, then they need to act NOW and fast. If they delay, and the deal closes, then they'll have up to 5 years to buy back 50% of the stream and after that, it falls to 33.3%.

So it's up to BHP or NMM or Rio or Barrick etc to decide now whether they want to pick up the phone and say... look Bob... just hold off on that Franco/Osisko closing doc as we need to chat.

If it closes... they have Franco / Osisko on board for 50% of that royalty stream no matter what happens. But.. yes... $350m+ of cash comes with that benefit. But to a super major... that's going to hurt because they don't need the $350m cash loan.

Last time Franco did royalty stream, it took about 4 months to officially close the transaction. So there's time for the majors or interested parties to 'chat'. But they'll need to be fast.

We've had the 'smart' from Bob... and now I suspect he'll deliver the 'fast'. Hats off to him... I'm happy to tip my hat to him despite it taking almost 2 years and the share price being thrown to the wolves. He's got a great deal off there and put the cat firmly amongst the pigeons. Game on.

If you include the previous finance, the numbers edge closers to $1bln invested.

Osisko $300m and Franco $600m. That's corca 21% royalty combined.

Compare that to say NCM(NMM) and BHP, and their investment for a combined 20% equity stake in SOLG is around $150m.

So you can see why the super majors like to try and earn in on the equity and use their muscle power to suppress the company and force into more equity sales.

But with resources in the ground, SOLG can (and through Bob's deal) escape the super majors usual heavy hand tactics.

Now the super majors have a choice... they either make a bid for full control or they end up seeing the profits eaten into by other parties like Franco.

Remember, NMM and BHP did not take 10% stakes (used to be 13%+ each but they've been diluted over last few years) to be passive or seek a return on their 10% investment.

That all said, it's not end of the world stuff for them. The copper (which they really want) is still very much up for grabs. That is of course.. unless Bob's about to do a $800m stream deal for the copper lol!

Question on my lips right now is.... just where are the chinese?? Are they still kicking tyres or are they now left kicking themselves?? Or are they gonna make a move for the $800m and do it through bank loans or a JV stake??

Today's funding news pretty much confirmed that there will be zero dilution in equity trms where Alpala is concerned for at least the next 2 years+. They will use funds from Franco / Osisko deal to derisk the asset further over the next 18months+. Ironically, that might suit BHP and NMM as both would like the asset further derisked... no doubt about that. But it comes at a price. I'm sure Bob would have put in a call to BHP and NMM and said... do you want to do a deal to finance this asset? Of course BHP and NMM would have said, yes... we are interested but we want to do it through equity eg riase from 10% to 20% etc etc. And that's a non starter.

At end of the day, the streamers really are the only ones to be able to issue cash for royalties. BHP and NMM can't really do that. Other finance vehicles would need to be against the asset and no doubt sit higher up the ranking than shareholders like CB's or Secure loans. Again... a non starter as Bob is not relinquishing any power. His power is through top rank and shareholdings.

Now the issue for BHP, NMM, Chinese and any other interested parties is 'time'. They are set to gain very little from waiting around. SOLG isn't going to be gained through equity stakes. The asset price is only going to get more expensive as derisking continues. The profits are going to reduce as timeframes slip... and remember... the likes of BHP and co would rip up that pony $1.55bln PFS and draw up a new one that doubles the planned production and doubles the capex. Scale is where the money is for these guys.

So time is against them. They simply have to make a move and do it fast before they end up letting the asset of the past two decades slip away from them and into the streamers and loan bankers hands.

Next year... copper will be surging. The year after... surging even more.

Today's finance is based on the gold alone. The copper resources are what the majors want most. Most of them have enough gold. So no surprise to see the copper aspect left untouched. That's a smart move Bob... very smart.

Now lets have the FAST.

Could get a major leg up in 3 to 4 weeks time as Aug 10th or thereabouts for msci review.

Remember, being dropped from the index earlier in the year was one of the main contributing factors that saw the sp pushed below 15p and down sub 10p. Get back to 14p/16p levels before mid Aug and then if MSCI forced buying kicks in, we should be into the 20's from there.

Of course, any rumours of BHP or NMM moves and we'll be flying anyway.

Astonishing to think they've not even touched the copper/silver resources. The market never really had SOLG valued correctly anyway, but it was always thought that the 'copper' would be the driver going forwards. Ironic that gold is the key asset for the royalties. That said, the previous $1oom via Franco still stands I believe based on 0.5% royalty of everything. Same for Osisko.

So the interesting thing now is.... what exactly is Mr Liu going to bring to the party? Or are Osisko acting on behalf of the chinese??

Lots to unfold here as having $750m sorted, suddenly opens the floodgates to other interested parties willing to take a slice. You could see much smaller players involved for $250m stakes x 3. BHP and NMM in a real fidde here... just what are they gonna do!??

Right then... on your marks...

I don't think Franco will be up for fully financing Alpala. More likely a JV deal with chinese and possible another streamer or player. Spreads the risk and lower capital deployment.

That said, I wonder what kind of royalty stake would be on the table for $1.5bln up front with some risk discount embedded in?? 0.5% for $50m x 30?? That simple? I doubt it. So what's the expectation for a full royalty deal?? 40% royalty?? That would be deal of century for Franco considering Alpala is due to knock out $1bln+ in profits for 15 years+ (approx!) first 4 years capex discounted.

With inflation woes over last 2 years equalling around 20% cash erosion (in real terms) any offers need to reflect that so if 80p offers 2 years ago need to be 96p offers today.

Whilst long term metal prices are forecast to surge especially copper etc, even using near term copper and gold prices you end up with considerably more than 2 or 3 years ago. PoG is around $2300oz levels today. When SOLG was trading at around 40p a share, PoG was just $1300oz.

I think anything sub 90p would be a dissapointment after all these years especially with what awaits around the corner. Much depends whether it's full asset sale or ENSA sale only as regional folio is worth a fortune and market has placed very little on that if anything at all.

I think unless the July 19th date is etched in with the ecuador gov for some kind of approval, then I'd assume that the date allows for some room as pretty reckless and nervy for all involved to take it up to the wire and SOLG would need to have $10m lined up to repay the loan etc.

So my guess is that the deadline if July19th on the loan (which was set back in May) will not be tested. Instead, you'll likely get a funding announcement this week or next week. I don't think they will take it to the wire.

Remember, Franco signed up to the $150m facility back in May 2020, but that didn't finalise/complete officially until September.

So equally possible that financing gets announced in next week or two but with caveat that it will be finalised within 3 months or 4 months.

That would then present potential players or buyers like BHP with the opportunity to counter offer or put an alternative funding proposal forward with ample time.

It's all about setting it up but making sure it also invites offers... that's what Bob skill set is and that's what he will be doing imho.

Loook guys... think it through as you're looking in the wrong direction.

Lets assume there are multiple interested parties as per the previous RNS's stating as much. Lets assume there are 3 or 4 involved.

Now... if you needed a $10m loan while discussions progress do you pick

A) Jianxi... mmm... nope because they are not a stream deal player

B) Reveal a name the market has not been aware of.... nope... that would be too risky.

C) Pick a player like Franco as the market won't read too much into that as they have previous relations with SOLG

D) BHP offers the $10m loan or NMM.

E) Osisko... mmm well they might suggest all that Bob has to date is well... Bob and his usual mates.

So whilst low key RNS's are fine and avoidance of naming the loan provider, I think they knew the name would come out via company reporting regs.

I think they have been savvy and the only name out of all interested parties that doesn't cause a stir is.. well.. Franco.

The RNS is quite clear and mentions that Franco Nevada are a "supportive partner". Of course they are... they've bunged $110m into SOLG this far so I'm sure they are keen to see this moving toward development or some kind of deal that sees progress.

The RNS does not say how many parties SOLG are in discussions with only that 'new' discussions are not underway. Previous RNS's have said that they are in discussions with multiple interested parties. So my view is that there are a number of them involved and Franco have stumped up the $10m to enable the discussions to conclude which might involve them in part or full. The July 19th date seems very precise and unusual for a bridge loan agreement as whilst they are viewed as short term, it's normally wise to book in 3 to 4 months unless of course.... by design... Franco have said ... here's $10m to keep the lights on but seriously guys (to all parties involved) it's time to get this all signed and sealed.

If the chinese have been delaying and kicking tyres then their tactics to string things out might be coming to a close before July 19th.

Does feel like a 'put up of shut up' scenario and Franco appear to be very supportive of SOLG which is comforting especially after Bob side stepped them for the $50m 2 years ago by doing it with his mates Osisko.

Lets face it... why didn't bob's mates just stump up the $10m and the loan was via Osisko??? Fact it came from Franco suggests they might be more involved now to a level that is out of reach for Osisko. Eg... $500m+ sums.

"The $10M Loan Facility provided by Franco-Nevada is subject to a 12% per annum interest rate and matures on 19 July 2024." END

So news looks nailed on within the next 4 weeks then.

As I thought... they are close and the $10m was just an overun facility.

I wonder if NMM or BHP have been consulted on this lol!

They didn't like the last few royalty deals.

So many posters on here have said there would be 'no more royalty deals'... and they've been proven very wrong.

Not long now then.

Shame the company could not have done the RNS properly back in May instead decided to try and conceal it. Now that really does tell you alot more about the current situation.

Well done Addicknt... looks like SOLG have been embarrassed by some standard reporting.

Good to have confirmation on this, well done addicknt.

It certainly fits with the previous franco royalty deal as agreed or announced in May... then bridge loan issued and full completion of available funds sorted in early September. That was 4 years ago.

We are still very much in the dark as to the level of finance being worked on and the $10m may well be part of the $50m left over from the previous $150m deal. But that said, very interesting to see Bob tapping up Franco especially after he ignored them to do the Osisko deal 2 years ago or just under.

$400m from Osisko, $400m from Franco and $400m from Mitsui with last $400m coming from Jangxi nail it. That would leave BHP or another interested party like NMM out of the picture and with a ticking timeclock assuming that the royalty cash has a timeframe for a buyback.

If you take the last Franco deal, and share price... there really wasn't any movement pre the franco deal as the market was expecting an equity raise. Once deal was done, the sp doubled thereafter. But market backdrop was a little different although I would have to say, we are in much better shape now (as a business/asset red tape signed / Noboa etc) than we were in 2020 covid days.

Yet here we are have the price.

Madness!!

"I also don't see why a Major would make a move until permits are in place"

The simple answer is ... they won't make a move until the important environmental permits are in place. But question you should be asking yourself is what would the majors do if someone else (like the chinese) or a number of royalty stream players like Franco, Mitsui and Osisko funded the project and that was announced in next 12 weeks?

Do you think the majors would really sit back and let those parties steal one of the world's last remaining 100% owned Tier1 copper gold mines?

There's always risk involved but based on SOLG's ESG credibilities, I don't think there's one person out there that thinks Ecuador are going to turn down Alpala production on environmental concerns. Big projects always come through in the end because those involved find solutions to all environmental concerns.

It's never been about the environmental permits... it's always been about the first offer... the one that triggers a snowball event and scrample amongst all those waiting on the sidelines.

The irony is... if or has SOLG secure the EP's then we would be a sitting duck.

SOLG would not have bothered with a pony $10m loan if they thought they would be here for another 18 months.

It was or is a bridge loan while the dot i's and t's.

Year end on SOLG is June 30th.

They have enough cash to last to end of August imho... end of September at a push. And that's being generous!

As I mentioned a few days ago, the Franco $150m royalty loan deal a few years ago was signed off in May but did not officially complete until September and SOLG took a bridge loan from them for around $10m or might have been $15m.

I don't think both parties would have agreed to the loan if they did not think all would be signed and sealed within 90 days.

As for the chinese... they tend to like partnerships and managing risk so my guess is that you might see a deal that involves them for bulk of it but with some skin in game for royalty players and possibly Ecuador gov through ENAMI. Not to mention a few of Noboa's buddies likely involved cough cough.

Codelco know Noboa well, so you could see them in for a wedge too.

Bottom line is... I suspect all involved with have break clauses which means if a buyer makes a move for SOLG (like BHP) then all involved will still make some decent coin should they end up having the deal called off.

Add to this the fact that the chinese already have 6% holding and you can see there are no real losers should counter offers come after the finance deal is announced.

FWIIW, I think Newmont Mining are very keen and I wouldn't have said that 2 years ago. But I think they see Ecuador as a possible company maker for them and SOLG is their only way in.

Adieuk32, good find and very welcome news. Mirador is very much a 'chinese' mine and this news demonstrates the close ties the chinese have with ecuador in mining and as we know in a wider context as they have been partners to ecuador on a number of projects outside of mining too. Not to mention large loans which the IMF are keen to see paid down. So lets be clear here... Ecuador and chinese are already very much 'partners'. If there was ever a chance of owning or having a share in the countries biggest mine, then the chinese would be in discussions with Ecuador before anyone else for sure.

As we know Bob has 'previous' with doing deals with the chinese on billion dollar assets. Throw in the recent NED role which saw SOLG appoint the well known chinese conduit Mr Liu to the board.

I don't think there is any doubt at all that the chinese are the ones behind deal talks. The only question we have to ask is whether Bob is discussing the entire bag of goodies or just a part.

Personally, I'd rather see a deal done for ENSA and then see a new exploration company or some kind of JV bundle deal which investors can get incolved in on the regionals.

It won't be long now before 'drilling' some holes will again see some major share price moves. Just imagine when copper fever really kicks off ... and announcing another major discovery especially after proving to market the monetisation of Alpala. That's where the real value could be. We might see 40p or 50p for ENSA. But we could see another 30p to 40p aded over a couple of years of aggressive drilling which wouldn't need more than $60m capex ($30m per year exploration).

The way forwards in my opinion is trough 'exploration'. We have an amazing folio in a country that BHP, NMM, FMG, Barrick and Gina R etc are all desperate to mine.

It's been a long journey, but SOLG are an 'explorer' through and through and I'd like to see the drill bit turning again and pronto. So if that means getting an ENSA deal done and out of the way (at a lower valuation price of say 50p+) then lets get it done.

imho, our exploration folio is worth more than Alpala. They say a 'bird in the hand is better than two in the bush'... that's true but with our 60 licences... I don't believe for one moment that SOLG hit the jackpot first time with Alpala. I think we have a copper belt there like Chile etc and we could really get the market excited if we started drilling again.

I have no doubts that the chinese may well have said... we'll discuss a deal/price... but no moving goal posts please. So in effect, moth ball and cease all exploration until we agree a deal.

Well... that's my view. Don't sell the lot. Sell or do deal on ENSA... then drill baby drill and do it fast while Noboa is behind it and signing those permits off before someone else like Barrick hits the jackpot and then the first mover advantage starts to weaken.

It's a different market these days... mining stocks have been in a downturn for a while now. But when they come back in favour, they move fast. We've already seen a little flicker of light at end of the tunnel with the BHP bid for Anglo. That really woke the market up. That deal failed... but th best thing i it revealed BHP's desperation and need to acquire copper resources fast. BHP are not the only ones fighting to make the transition from dirty fossil fuels to green focused metals.

Here's one for you when it comes to having balls or as in these case... not any balls at all.

Tesla share price in 2019 was $14 a share. It's $180 now. Most risk off market players are happier playing with Tesla rather than higher risk stocks like SOLG. Or.. take Nvidia. $3.50 a share in 2019. Today, it's $131 a share. Mkt cap $3trillion lol!

There's loads of other examples out there... the stock market really has been a very kind and pleasant place to be for fund managers that like playing with the lower risk stocks.

Who on here would have prefered to have sold SOLG in 2019 and bought Tesla or Nvidia??

And finally here's the real crunch one to ponder and something that Bob needs to take into account... and that's inflation. Effectively a sale of SOLG at 75p today vs a sale at 75p (on same shares in issue basis) 18months or 2 years ago and one looks more like 60p in real terms (assuming compound inflation over 2 years etc).

50p a share today is as good as the past days of 41p. So Bob not only has to secure a good deal... he's got to go an extra 20% above the target level just to benchmark against inflation for longer term holders.

You certainly don't need balls to make loads of money in the stock market. Tesla and Nvidia are examples of big companies acting like smallcaps. We are talking billions and billions of value added on those stocks over just 5 year period.

Our time will come, but we have been in the wrong sector at the wrong time for a while now but with copper set to soar in the future, we will soon be doing cartwheels I'm sure.

Can't be too long before they finalise their planned divestments/asset sales including the Haverion/Telfer debacle.

They could end up with around $2bln+ in their skyrockets after a few disposals. Possibly more. Deploying that cash into copper / gold rich resources like a Tier1 mine in Ecuador could be high up on their spend list. BHP certainly wouldn't like Newmont getting hold of SOLG imho.

Remember, it was NCM (now under Newmont) that Bob did his first deal with on SOLG. BHP followed not long after. So ironically, it could end up being a bid war with the very two large shareholders that started some 5 years ago.

Lets face it, neither have gone away and there's been plenty of opportunities for them to walk away. But they have stayed firmly invested and between them they own 20%+ of SOLG.

Last time SOLG had a bridge loan of sorts like the recent $10m was with Franco Nevada as it kept the lights on while they completed the $150m royalty facility. That got announced in May (the deal) but didn't officially complete until September.

Mather was on record a few years ago of saying that he thought $1bln would be available via Franco or other royalty players.

Now with a bit of common sense, you can see the implications of SOLG announces a very small $10m loan deal with Franco. Lets face it, that would be the cat straight out of the bag. It might ruffle some feathers of other interested parties. So common sense prevails and if multiple parties are involved then no one gets upset by a minor $10m loan if no one knows who's behind it.

Due diligence takes time. It always takes longer when more parties are involved.

$1.5bln is not small change, but when split between 3 parties for $500m each, it's very viable for alot of players involved from royalty players to state's to super majors etc.

SOLG have already RNS'd news that they are in discussions regarding financing a 'significant' part of the full package. So that suggests more than 25%, possible all the way to 50%. That's a significant chunk. But lets face it... raising $500m or $750m is pointless if you don't have commitments on the other $750m etc etc. So it's pretty obvious the there are a number of parties involved and the finance package is an effort of all involved and as such takes time to go back and forth and meet everyones criteria and risk.

And here's one to remember... Newmont via Newcrest's businesss, did a gold prepay credit facility, together with a stream facility and an offtake agreement with Lundin Gold on Fruta del Norte mine for $460 million in April 2020. Lundin have paid back almost all of it now I believe.

$500m x 3 deals would secure the funding required to see Cascabel through bulk of development (phase 1).

Secure a deal like that, and a business like BHP which has limited copper resources and wants more, is going to have no choice but counter offer. The only way SOLG can force BHP's hand is to show they can fund Cascabel. Until then, BHP can just sit on their hands and wait. That said, the clock is ticking now the exploitation agreement has been signed so Cascabel reduces in value/profits for any predator every day they wait now. They ight get licences extensions 22 years down the line but the point is... the clock is ticking now and all know it.