Member Info for Fortissimo

I think it's hard to split the numbers and compare with current market cap as the cost status on Telfer is unknown. There might be $200m+ liabilties on Telfer which is likely reason NMM want shot of it.

I would have thought Wyloo would have been up for more than the usual 20% acquisition cost but guess they have to be careful of getting close to the 29%+ level.

Must be some sort of share split coming in the deal too as surely can't have 11 or 12 billion shares in issue post deal. That won't meet ASX plans.

If you are buying 70% plus Telfer for $500m, then that's good news and bad news in one go. Good news is you are getting it cheap and the bad news is it values your current 30% at $250m... so would price GGP nearer 4p/5p.

Furthermore, what are the liabilities on Telfer? I guess that's where the number become challenging to work through.

TA is all we have at the moment as there's xxck all else coming from management to guide the sp higher. Heaven help the folk that have to listen to the presentations from an explorer that is not exploring and with bulk of content on mine building and derisking from a company that is not a mine builder.

Putting that aside... like the noronts. filo's and Oz minerals... TA often fails when trying to define when a bid comes in. So with SOLG... we always have that FOMO ticking along... day in and day out. A bid can come at any time.

Addicknt, if a buyer is interested, they won't be talking to Scott. They'll be talking to Bob. He's the one running the Strategic Review. Scott is Ecuador based and running the operational side of things... although not too sure what he's been doing for last 18months as SOLG haven't been doing any operations lol!

A CEO should speak for the company and shareholders, but Scott has failed to do this. So who will? That's my point.

When Scott turned an exploration company into a company that does not explore, it wasn't with the blessing of shareholders. When Scott said he'd take 23p... that wasn't speaking for shareholders. The list goes on.

SOLG is owned by shareholders and stakeholders but unfortunately run by one shareholder... which is Bob. Scott is the man on the ground... he's basically ops man. He's CEO because Bob doesn't want someone else messing with his plans. He just wants wants a face in Ecuador that looks senior as that ticks boxes.

Ask anyone out there... and you'll get teh same answer. Bob/Maxit are running the show and creaming off millions in the process sale or no sale.

His buddies at Osisko are already doing well out of it.

There is no chairman to challenge Bob or create some balance.

That's the reality.

Don't get me wrong, I think Scott's a good ops guys and can get the on ground works done... but he's not a CEO and he'd tell you that to his face as he's a pretty honest straight talking guy. So who's watching over Bob??? Well... Franco certainly now which is why they point so many 'check points' in that funding deal. They didn't do that with Mather.

SC did have over 22% at one point. 3 weeks ago they have 21.3%. So they appear to be selling quite aggressively imho based on 5% being sold over last few days. They bought the stock nearer the 60p level I believe so hefty losses for them, albeit a minor investment in grande scheme of things.

https://www.gemdiamonds.com/shareholder-information.php

Who does speak for the company and shareholders then?? Could you tell me? It's certainly not Scott.

It doesn't really matter whether Bob's cosy with BHP or not, the end result always comes down to 'asset price' and there is an industry basis for this not to mention a competitive market whereby anyone can outbid another.

If Bob was buddies with BHP, he'd be doing equity placings galore and BHP would hold about 25%+ now.

That all said, what can't be ignored is the fact that Bob and BHP do have history and facts are facts... Bob sold BHP a large wedge of his SOLG shares for 25p and that was after NCM had shown interest. So Bob preferred one over the other or thought having both added value... and he got to cash in a load of shares at 25p which he acquired around 5p I believe or less.

Bob will always be alright... because he looks after himself. He creamed off $5m in fees alone in the last accounts. Tut tut Bob.

Jiangxi had a right to appoint someone to the SOLG board just as NMM and BHP have the same right too.

My guess is that Mr Lui is Jiangxi's appointment as he hasn't contributed anything thus far that is evident apart from perhaps being an oversight for Jiangxi.

What we do know is that Jiangxi, NMM and BHP have gone no where. They are all sitting tight. Curiously, all have not added to their holdings since the sp dipped to multi year lows. Perhaps they know that TR1 news would spark a surge in the share price especially if from one of them.

Irwin or Chamandy et al also appear to be sitting on their hands. You'd think they'd all be buying stock in the bucket loads at 9p levels if they knew a secret BHP deal had been done. So, I'm afraid BBG... you are on the wrong track there.

It's not as complicated as you make out. I think it's straightforward. In the absence of a bid, SOLG will continue to derisk the asset. That costs money and that results in royalty deals which hurts the likes of BHP not shareholders. So the long this goes on the more it hurts BHP and others. As I said a while ago now, the clock is ticking and it's no longer a time to try and squeeze the little guy... because the little guy is fully funded for 3 years+ subject to ticking a few 'easy to tick' boxes.

A bid will come soon simply because there's nothing left anymore for BHP or other predators to gain by with sitting on sidelines. That said, they might want to wait until Ecuador elections, mining cadestre to reboot and for permits to come in but looking at the Filo resources transaction, BHP didn't wait for very much on that one and took the risk.

If BHP pitch a bid sub 70p this year, it's sad to say, but I think it would succeed as investors are clearly at max frustration levels and understandable so. We could have bunged our cash into Tesla at $28 a share in March 2020 and flog the lot when it tested $400+ a share just 18months later.

Even Mather must be growing tired now.

Wonder how Greggy boy feels about current SOLG situation. I guess he's got the 't-shirt' already so might not care too much but there is a chairman role that needs filling. Mmm. Wonder how that would go down?

On the basis that SOLG is a potential takeover stock... it has and will always be that bottom drawer stock. When hasn't it been in last 4 years+??

You buy the stock because the share price is cheap compared to the asset values in their folio. So cheap that it presents an opportunity of a lifetime and it's underpinned by world class asset resources.

There are similar examples out there like the Noront Resources example. Like SOLG... trading flat and unloved. Paint drying action and then boom... in lands the offer and bidding war kicks off. Few months later it's gone.

Then recently we had Filo Resources. During covid lows it tested $1 per share. Then over next 4 years, it steadily climbed (unlike SOLG) and ended up going for 33 x its covid low at $33 a share (cad).

Personally I'd prefer the pathway to be the same as Filo... but for the moment we are looking like the Noront example.

At end of the day... does it matter when the final outcome is multiples of the low end share price?

It's either a steady rerate... or it's flat and boring and the boom time.

SOLG management will not see the share price rise much unless they can get exploration moving again and find a chairman. Until then, it's going to follow Noront's path imho. And that's going to require patience and acceptance that not alot is going to happen until an offer lands.

Remember, the game has changed, the clock is ticking and BHP et al stand to gain very little by just stretching things out.

IMHO, if BHP made a move right now they'd likely succeed with a bid that is below the current broker estimate as shareholders are clearly tired and the book is looking light when it comes to II's and Fund managers. Just what super majors like when making predator low ball bids. First bid could come tomorrow. And that's SOLG for you.

DBW, agree... noboa has been very helpful as have mining ministry... so the IPA shouldn't take long at all.

Remind me again, what was wrong with last IPA and what is the new one going to offer/do??

BBG, if you can't be accurate and detailed then you just become a misinformation chain.

Read the funding RNS again... below for you.

" Second Tranche: $33.3 million (expected in 2025) will be available upon certain conditions precedent being met, including, but not limited to, the execution of the amended investment protection agreement, completion of the geotechnical drilling, and finalization of the tailings storage facility ("TSF") design sufficient for a minimum of 10 years of operation and prepared in accordance with applicable requirements." END.

So Scott has to deliver those 3 things minimum or the $33.3m does not get released.

They are burning at least $3m to $4m per month. So with $18m cash as of now, he'll need to deliver all of the above within the next 4 to 5 months. Certainly within Q1 2025. Q2 starts April 2025 and they will be scrapping the barrel long before then.

They'll also need that amended IPA before Feb 2025 as Ecuador elections kick off from 9th Feb 2025, although if second run off required then that pushes into April.

Nothing to do with BHP. More about standard risk assessment and confidence. Franco gave Mather $100m for 0.5% royalty (on copper silver and gold). No strings attached. Well done Mather. Franco / Osisko gave Bob and Scott, $33.4m with caveats and milestones. Same required for the next $33.3m and the last batch. That's just good practice by Franco/Osisko and well done to them. Lets face it, after Scott burned through $85m in cash doing nothing more than using a pair of scissors to Darryls expert backed PFS... if I were Franco... I would also be showing a concern on Scott's ability to control funds.

I reckon cash pile is around $18m now if you strip out the $10m loan and $3m to $4m cash burn x 2 since July.

So I woudl expect Scott to deliver the Tailings Design, geo tech drilling and IPA (amended) all before the Dec AGM.

Why? Because the next $33.3m doesn't get released unless Scott delivers. So when they say second tranche expected in 2025, what they really mean is Jan 2025 lol!

Bottom line is... we have a friend in Franco as they are watching Scott and Bob like a hawk now. Rightfully so.

Until SOLG appoint a chairman, I think a large bunch of fund managers and II's cannot invest... end of. The chairman requirement is one of their tick boxes. Second tick box is company forward plan and whether that matches the company structure/outlined purpose. In SOLG's case, again the business fails due to the muddled strategy. We are an explorer that doesn't explore. We are a developer that doesn't develop. What are we?? We are uninvestible to Fund Managers and II's.

I think Bob's done ok by following up Mather's old leads and getting the $750m sorted. But he's not really done anything himself. He's not really brought anything to the party apart from 'confusion'.

There is no doubt that SOLG would be in a better place now, better understood with a clear strategy defined, exploration underway etc etc while ENSA continues to be derisked in the background.

Bob and Scott have to date not ticked the right boxes (chairman ... exploration etc) so that's a good reason for the market to ignore and discount sp.

There's no point in Scott saying we are going to be ticking boxes on ENSA progress etc etc... as that's not going to bring much needed buy volumes in from II's and Fund Managers.

So first... they need to get a Chairman appointed after booting the old one. Second, they have to outline the company strategy and end to the Strategic review. And last but not least... they need to get exploration back underway so the markets understand what SOLG actually is.

I think Scott and Bob certainly need to do more to get out there and market the company. Our top 3 fund managers all reduced holdings over last couple of months. That can be inline with their usual trading strategies or because they are growing tired of waiting like everyone else??

Global X Management Company LLC holds 45,052,612 shares (down 5m shares since late May)

Franklin Advisers, Inc. holds 27,914,329 shares (down 2m shares since late May)

Konwave AG holds 18,501,884 shares (down 7.55m shares since late May)

No significant buyers. Although highlight is Legal & General (institution) who after selling out a while ago appear to be buying in for the unit trust. They bought 1.3m shares.

If Konwave AG continue to sell, it will weigh on the sp but mm's are doing a decent job and managing large sellers.

We need a few large funds or II's to get stuck in and at the moment Scott and Bob are failing to capture their interest, apart from L&G of course. Latter bodes well if they are starting ti build back in again.

There are plenty of examples out there of miners with great assets that are undervalued by the stock market even after being proven up with numerous drill holes and studies. I'll say it again ... Noront shareholders were exactly the same... pretty fed up with where the business was consideirng the progress made. Stuck at 21cents a share and the market had them priced at levels that said we know you need money... we know you can't make this project happen. 3 months later Wyloo beat BHP to Noront in a bid war that saw the stock go for 110cents. Nothing had changed inbetween, apart from the market looking a bit of a dumb xxck and tail between legs conceding it got it wrong.

SOLG is no different. When a bid comes, the market will soon change it's tune. Tier1 mines do not remain on the shelf... not with IRR's over 20%.

If an interested party has said to SOLG... these are the check boxes we need ticked before we give you top dollar....then that's that. SOLG will tick those boxes and by look of things, it's with the blessing of the interested parties... which as we know might be NCM, BHP, Chinese or Streamers like Franco and Osisko in full.

The important thing is, that while the stock market continues to play to it's true casino / fruitmachine valuation style, it's the likes of Franco and Osisko et al that matter most. And they've valued the business closer to $4bln+ based on royalty deals... and that's assuming metal prices at today's levels. If metals double (as predicted, especially copper) then that's $8bln+.

Investors will just have to accept that SOLG will be xxp one day and then when news comes... it will rerate. That news might be ticked boxes like Tailings, permits etc or an offer.

Everything inbetween is just like watching paint dry.

Bob has got the biz fully funded for next 2 to 3 years (subject to milestones etc) meaning no equity dilution so the sp is irrelevant to some extent especially when the market can't value it's rse.. from its face.

Frustrating to see sp this low after securing $750m, but as they derisk and sort tailings etc the sp should head north. At end of the day, it's only the margin traders and overleveraged investors that hurt when sp's dip lower and that's not Bob's issue.

Porvenir is tasty... and in the south. Begs the question why SOLG are soooooo slooooooooow to do anything with it. Perhaps their chinese partners (just an opinion) prefer they just sit on it??

https://solgold.com.au/solgold-plc-announces-porvenir-project-update-2/

With metals boom around the corner, time is not on the side of the super majors. That game has now switched in favour of SOLG. The clock is ticking and every month that goes by with Scott and his team fudging around a budget pfs etc etc is a month wasted from a super majors point of view. They don't want a turnkey project based on the IRR, someone like BHP wants double or triple that. Phased plan or not phased plan, there are some cross overs and Tailings being one of them. If a super major waits too much longer, they'll gain very little and lose alot in calendar time. It should be time for a major to make a move now especially as Bob has put the next 3 years+ finance to bed... subject to key milestones being met.

All in all... I think we're closer to the end game than many think. You wouldn't know it looking at the share price but then same could be said of Noront some years ago at 21 cents one month and then after BHP bid war... ends up going for 110 cents. Whatever was the market thinking when it was pricing Noront at 21 cents??

When it happens, it will happen fast. In meantime, enjoy the last of summer.