Member Info for Fortissimo

Bozi,

I think you might have been right pre merger. But post merger, Mather's personal holdings are sub 3%. DGR hold 6%. Mather doesn't own 'all of DGR' so question on how far he can control that entity is open for discussion. But lets assume he 'controls' a full 9% of SOLG right now. That's not enough to hold off a bid from a major or Chinese state buyer. You need around 20%+ to offer any real resistance and even then it's not easy.

I think you are right about the CGP guys, as Maxit has proven track record for selling large amounts of stock to BHP for 25p.

But it's an open market as they say and if Bob pitched up with a 35p recommended offer to shareholders, I think he'd be shown the door pronto. Not to mention a likely bid war would ensue. Too many big players out there all desperate for large copper mines and at present almost zero available to buy in open market ... and certainly on a 100% owned basis.

We all hope so Pad... I think the fundamental change from where we have been before is the longer term funding view. Whilst boxes are required to be ticked still...the dot plot map (fed speak) shows SOLG won't be needing any equity raises or debt finance for a decent 2 years+. Perhaps this is what was required to get BHP et all off the sidelines as not sure what purpose it served for them to sit and wait on their hands? Now they can waste another 2 years sitting on their hands, or they can get ahead of the upcoming copper boom and get this assets (or these assets) in their folio and into production alot earlier than... well... sitting around for another 2 or 3 years.

SOLG is a binary play now imho. It's just ticking along, fully funded, waiting to be taken out. Might feel like paint drying and boring... but we are closer to the home run than ever before... although I do think we were close a few years back but BHP opted for Oz minerals instead. The rest is history.

Someone snapped up that 1m block and got the train moving.

Surely it can't be Scotty boy dipping into his own pocket again??

Director buys would be welcome but are they out of closed period? Mmm... might need year end accounts to drop before they can officially buy??

Seems to be some renewed interest over on TSX with reasonable volume for them today at 20 cents or 11.1p equivalent.

TSX TA chart looking far clearer than the LSE based one. The sp recovery path looks fully underway albeit slow and methodical.

In true SOLG style (as history shows) we are due a 15% or 20% up day. They come along every now and again... like buses.

SOLG's accounts are never a good read story. They've chucked about $90m away doing almost zero over the last 18months. The only good news in the accounts will be that Bob hasn't trousered another $4m+ in fees.

Having read their comments, there are plenty of get out clause messages, like... 'for now' and 'we have our hands full right now'... so basically they are saying nothing new although I think the message to the market is more about concentrating hard to make what they have right now work well for them. Should the right opportunity arise... they'll naturally look at it but they are not actively on the M&A hunt. So that's fine. Doesn't really change the story for SOLG right now as if someone else made a move for us, NMM would then be forced to make a decision. The strong point for us is that they have retained SOLG investment when they could easiy have flogged it.

I think the market was wondering what they are going to do with the $2bln or so they are raising via disposals. And the answer 'for now' is they plan to deploy that cash toward their folio.

Not sure the market will like that much, and the CEO of NMM might find it a struggle to boost the sp in a few years if they are clearly lacking copper resources. It's copper that will excite the markets in the next few years... and miners that are in the thick of it will be rerated.

I haven't read the NMM comments but there isn't a decent miner out there that would say they are done with M&A? Why would you? As a miner, (size of NMM) you are always looking at opportunities. If you are not, then you're failing your shareholders.

But lets face it, in the context of NMM... they have just acquired Newcrest and are in the process of selling off all the assets that they think are rubbish or non core.

If I were a shareholder of NMM, I'd be asking this firm question of the CEO...... "How are you poistioning our business ahead of a boom in copper". And the answer is.... erm... well.... we... erm.... mmm!

I don't think that's quite how the markets are seeing it. Some expect the Fed not to cut at all. Majority think 0.25pt cut is nailed on and there's a small majority that think the Fed might shock the markets and opt for a 0.5pt cut. There's absolutely zero chance of a 0.75pt cut.

My guess is that they'll go with 0.25pt but will give markets insight into future cuts eg; basically lay it out as a 0.25pt cut x 4 over the next 6 months minimum.

Historically the FED have always pleased incoming and outgoing US presidents as the narative heading into US elections is always about making the US voter feel like everything is tickety boo... when it definately isn't.

0.25pt will keep markets wanting more. A 0.5pt cut could see a big rally and PoG through $2600oz. That's my take.

At around 2m volume or even 3m, it equates to just £200k or £300k in cash transactions excluding the usual SB's and leverage trades.

The mm's will want 10m volume + before they start shifting it materially as you are dealing with a £300m market cap business not some smallcap minnow trading in the low £20m bracket.

BBG, generally, royalty deals or stream finance etc is just that and those that get involved tend to stay well clear of equity stakes or shareholdings. Defeats the object to some extent and certinly so on a risk bases. The stream is on the asset... that's the key. The equity can be diluted. But the asset royalty cannot.

Mr Liu was added to the SOLG board by Jianxi as it was part of the option they had when they took on the 5% stake. So Mr Liu is just there as a safe guard fly on the wall. NMM and BHP both had or still have options to put someone on the SOLG Board but both have neglected to do so. So just ponder on that one and then you might get an idea of what matters at board level especially when it comes to how many board members you have... and there is no floating deciding vote under the chairman as there is no chairman. Always look at the structure of the board, numbers and how they might react to a bid.

BBG, Jiangxi took $5m at 32p. They then took about 150m shares at approx 17p. There is no sense in them taking 30m shares at 45p is there? Doesn't make sense. The copper aspect of the business is being derisked by the gold stream in place now. That runs through to project development decision (2025/26). There is no way a copper stream transaction can be concluded until the basic works outlined in the phase 1, 2 and 3 of gold stream finance is concluded. Furthermore, copper will be a big buzz word next year and the year after that and the decade after that. There's absolutely no sense at all agreeing a copper stream deal which delivers finance which is not required for at least 2 to 3 years.

I don't mind a bit of left field thinking as it's better than watching the green lines pile up time and time again on this BB.

But I think you are way off on the copper stream. Way off on DGR stake being sold and way off with pre-agreed deals.

Bob will know what various interested parties want and all interested parties will know that derisking comes at a capital cost and that equity raises are off the table. So likes of BHP have been told firmly that there is no way in for them via underhand techniques or equity placings. If they want to standby and watch ENSA derisked, then they'll have to accept that it comes at a royalty level cost of which some can be bought back by them ... but not all.

FWIIW, I think Bob knows that next year, will be very exciting for copper and to some extent .. PoG. Combine that with some on the ground progress and derisking plus a positive outcome to Ecuador elections and it's feasible to see SOLG back into the mid 20's without a bid insight.

As for Mather... I think he'll just roll the finance over with another party as ineffect, surely any underwriting or secured nature of any deal is effectively a stake in SOLG as can't see much else that DGR have that is worth anything.

Furthermore, when Mather took out the loan deal with repayment for Nov 2024, he would have known that there was a limited chance of a SOLG monetisation event being concluded by then. He's also had over 8 months to plan or find alternatives. I don't think he's backed into a corner at all.

Last thing Mather or Bob would want is to have shareholder changed with power going to the big three. If Jiangxi, NMM and BHP owned over 33% (collectively), it would be game over as these 3 could team up and force all kinds of things through. There are rules for coordinated holders etc, but easy to navigate.

At present these 3 own close to 27%. The hope would be that Jiangxi are no friends of BHP and NMM are no friends of either etc, but a private deal among them could see 'partnerships' flourish further down the line.

I wouldn't trust the Chinese. And I certainly wouldn't rule out NMM and BHP working in cahoots.

So Mather needs $18m (I presume that's aussie dollars?) by Nov 30th. His 6% SOLG DGR holding is worth at present $22m ish? At industry priced asset level, worth $120m.

There's no way he's going to flog 6% SOLG (worth at least $120m+) for $20m. He'll just refinance the loan deal with either a new loan deal or some other vehicle.

BBG... what would you do? Would you flog the 6% holding in SOLG??

How much is DGR's loan and when do they need to pay it or have it refinanced?

Https://www.miningmx.com/trending/58349-rise-of-ai-to-fuel-copper-shortage-says-bhp/

Astaris Capital Management LLP look in a rush to close out. Bodes well.

"In the past SOLG has been correlated with gold..."

not really true at all. It might have been aligned with MSCI or gold faced ETF's etc but it's pretty obvious to all that PoG's jump from $1300oz to double to $2600oz has seen SOLG half in price. Down from comparable 20p to 10p.

So SOLG aligned to gold prices is not true at all. And rightfully so... we don't produce any gold. And we don't look like being capable of delivery gold to market for at least 5 years.

It's M&A action (which is increasing now) that is seeing some interest in SOLG return. That and the fact they are potentially fully funded for the next 3 years+. Funding always weighs small miners down. SOLG's funding is phased so it's the box ticking that Scott has to deliver that weighs us down. If he doesn't deliver, then we don't get the next $33.5m. Why wouldn't the market just 'what and see' what Scott can deliver?? Especially as it's already taken him a year+ just to scope out where he thinks the tailings can go!! And even then... he can't be sure until he drills the areas to determine optimum site.

Metooooo, by default... it's 'forever' unless someone makes a bid or a very large monetisation event unfolds.

That's always been case. So nothing has changed at all apart from the fact that the asset continues to be derisked and therefore in theory continues to grow in value. That value likely to grow further with copper/gold pricing going forward.

A bid could arrive tomorrow... or in 5 years time. Who knows?

I know, I was suggesting the upcoming red tape adjustment to the IPA. I shouldn't have said 'all permits' but I think we can agree, the more the better (eg Porvenir inc) before Elections in Feb / April next year. I'm hoping Noboa will be given 4 years to prove himself properly but we know what the cartels are like and question is has Noboa won them over more than Correa and his honcho's? Bit early for all that... we can all start fretting about elections after New year passes.

You'd hope all permitting and red tape is close as Noboa will be knee deep in elections come Dec/Jan period.

Hopefully SOLG can give Noboa's mining ministry all the info they need before then although they way they are dragging their feet, it's looking like Bob and Scott are in no particular hurry. No doubt the news (of relevance) will arrive in Early Dec nicely befoe the AGM... like it did last year. Cynical but i'm afraid, sadly factual.